3 minute read
We’re back on the course proper this week with the Listed Lightning Stakes headlining the card.
Always a good race the Lightning Stakes and usually one of the more interesting stakes races with the combination of two- and three-year-old horses but alas, this year none of the infamously underwhelming two-year-olds have decided to take on their marginally better seniors.
Nevertheless, it's a handy field with a number of angles and the trendy angle is the one I've gone for. Extremely Lucky has been anything but that in his career, twice the recipient of terrible misfortune from his four starts. I'm not sure he wins the Group 2 Tobin Bronze Stakes (1200m) but he definitely runs a clear second to Seradess with clear air.
He atoned with a dominant win before a spell at this track and distance and goes out rated 102, however I'd confidently predict that number to rise given he's only having his fifth start. He goes on top from Scorched Earth who does have an enticing 108 to her name when second in a fast race to Argentia. I feel as if she's maybe hit her mark around the 106 mark whereas Extremely Lucky could leapfrog that with ease.
Unflinching could represent some value. He peaked at 106 at The Valley over 1000m before finding the 1200m a bridge too far behind Generation. He looks the leader over the 1050m and could be entertained at double figures.
Kallos is the other big gun in the market. His Danehill 113 makes him an odds on chance, but questionable form on paper behind him and two average runs since have me questioning where he's at. He did trial well but I'd be prepared to leave him.
Something on Extremely Lucky & Unflinching for me.
The other race I'll throw up a bet in is Race 6, a Bm62 for three-year-olds and I'm siding with a maiden in Mornington Mask. She took on Bm64 grade at Sandown last start and rushed home behind an all the way winner with a further 4 lengths back to third, the + on the end of her 80 rating oh so significant.
She will have to live up to that + and likely run closer to the mid-eighties to win, but she looks as good a chance as any in an open race.
SAY FROM SA
Lightning Stakes (Race 8)- #5 Extremely Lucky @ $4.20 & #2 Unflinching @ $10
Each way play- Race 6 # Mornington Mask @ $9/3.25