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Hideyuki Takaoka would be surprised if Quadcopter can give him a fourth feather to his Singapore Derby cap this Saturday.
The Japanese trainer has an enviable record in the glamour race. In the 18 seasons the 2000 NAR (Japan's National Association of Racing) champion trainer has spent at Kranji, he had a crack nine times, winning three of them – Jolie's Shinju in 2009, Better Life in 2013 and Jupiter Gold in 2018.
The last trainer to hold a better record is Malcolm Thwaites who rang up his fourth Derby with Par Excellence at Bukit Timah in 1999.
In addition, Takaoka finished runner-up once (El Dorado in 2008), third once (Jade in 2007), with Diamond Dust's and Bendicion's fifths in 2005 and 2014 respectively also being full of merit.
It would then be fair to say that a Takaoka Derby runner is not one you'd sneeze at.
But as this year's offbeat renewal of the third and final Leg of the Singapore Four-Year-Old Challenge comes up, Takaoka sounded almost sheepish with his entry, the unheralded Quadcopter, a son of Zoustar who scored the last of his four wins (all on turf) at Class 4 level.
"He'll need very, very big luck," he said.
"It'll be very difficult for him. It's at level weights and there are some very good horses, a lot of them are Group winners. He's only a Class 4 horse."
Takaoka can't envision his charge claiming the scalp of the likes of Group 1 Kranji Mile winner Aramaayo, last year's Group 1 Singapore Guineas winner Top Knight or Siam Blue Vanda, winner of the Group 2 Stewards' Cup, the second Leg.
A softer option was available, the $70,000 Race Ahead 2010 Stakes, a Class 3 event over the same Derby distance, but Takaoka's answer was a little at odds with the original scepticism.
"I already have two horses in that race (Wind Trail and EA Star Jack), but they're not four," he said.
"Quadcopter is four, he's fit and well, and I thought why not run him in the Derby."
On paper, Quadcopter is five like all his 13 rivals, except for US-bred Minister who is still four, and should not qualify, but after COVID-19 forced the rescheduling of the Singapore Derby to this most unusual date in September, the conditions were modified to allow for Southern Hemisphere-bred five-year-olds.
Quadcopter will be ridden by Marc Lerner, the same jockey who steered him to his last two wins, including two weeks ago, when an impressive 3 ¼-length winner in a Class 4 race over 1400m, the furthest he has been in 18 Kranji starts.
That day, he punched the breeze three wide outside the leaders, but still cleared out easily – a possible sign of stamina.
Takaoka concurred, but it was a slow nod that came with a proviso.
"He's a roarer. It's a small problem, but because of that, I'm not sure he can run 1800m," he said.
"If he didn't have this problem, I think 1800m should be okay, especially after the way he won at his last start.
"He's a horse that can go up with the pace or get back, but because I'm not sure if he can stay, maybe he'll have to race closer to the pace."
Quadcopter, who has drawn eight, will carry the same colours as Jupiter Gold, being raced in the same interests as Takaoka's last winner in 2018, Mr Kaz Hosaka and his partners.
"I didn't tell Mr Hosaka when I nominated Quadcopter, but I'm sure he'll be happy he has another Derby runner," said Takaoka.
With French jockey Olivier Placais up, Jupiter Gold (x Congrats) won the last Singapore Derby to be sponsored by Emirates and the first to be staged over 1800m (used to be 2000m long). Now seven, the nine-time winner and $1.4 million earner has been sidelined by a tendon injury since May 2019, but is not far from his racing comeback.
"Jupiter Gold's tendon problems are over. The scans are all clear," said Takaoka.
"I was getting him ready for his comeback, but he recently had some minor hoof infections. Nothing serious but we probably need another two weeks now.
"I haven't found a race for him yet, but any Class 1 race over any short distance to start with will be okay."