3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive Preview of Sha Tin races.
Race 1
#6 Inspiring City didn't help himself by over racing on debut but nevertheless displayed plenty of ability and upside. His closing sectionals through the final 600m were marginally superior to those opposing him today and the step up to 1200m is of benefit. There's not much in it between the three fancied runners but as a 2yo with the light weight he's the horse they must beat.
#2 Happy Won shall also appreciate the step up in journey and interestingly has the tongue tie being applied. With Zac Putrton behind the wheel on debut there's obviously a legitimate reason that piece of gear goes on. Further improvement is therefore likely imminent and he's the hardest to beat.
#1 Forever Friends was only beaten a short margin on debut after spending a fair portion of fuel through the first half. His sectionals suggest he'll either lead this race, or settle handy, and importantly hard up against the rail. With Moreira taking over the reigns from Chadwick it's highly probable he'll take plenty of running down.
#3 Joyful Champion has the advantage of drawing alongside the running rail which is a great guide and should enhance his chances of finishing closer. Blinkers have also been removed jumping up to the 1200m which also appears a positive change.
#4 Our Precious hasn't done much from two outings contested however he's been green and quite inattentive. A change of rider and better barrier are reasons for improvement and should he fully focus then we may see a completely different horse.
Selections : 6,2,1,3,4
R2 - 6,9,12,11,3
R3 - 9,5,1,6,2
R4 - 2,4,1,6,12
Race 5
#1 California Vanes is a sizeable beast and should cope with the 135lbs and wide draw. He'll require one of Purton's best rides to gain victory under those circumstances but he's a 3yo with better still to come. It's crucial he doesn't get involved in a speed dual, with pace drawn his outside, and if that's the case it's probable he'll be declared the winner.
#7 Dragon Kingdom is the inform opponent who's draw alongside "California Vanes" and you can guarantee he'll want the lead. If he's allowed to cross easily he'll be a tough nut to crack but conversely, if pressured, it can bring him undone. It's a fine line surrounding the outcome between the pair but whatever unfolds they'll be the favourite quinella result.
#3 Sweet Diamond showed plenty of courage to win his most recent event after things got tight during the run. He's a slow maturing type with plenty of scope and should receive the perfect trail. He'll need to improve his closing sectional speed to win but it's not beyond possibility.
#12 Smart Folks remains a maiden from twenty eight starts but has the speed to rattle the favourite pair for the lead. With no weight to carry and a good draw he's a definite inclusion for exotics. Recent efforts over longer, and on a wet tracks, have rated well and I don't anticipate he'll be faraway at the end.
#4 Prime Mortar has ability that wasn't fully exposed at Happy Valley on debut. He began slowly on that occasion and was checked mid-race before reeling of an encouraging final 600m split. He's a horse to follow for next season but can run well today.
Selections : 1,7,3,12,4
R6 - 11,1,4,6,10
Race 7
#6 Tycoon Jewellery is right on cue to produce a race winning performance following a hard finishing second last start. He maps to receive the run of the race and the tempo should complement his finishing style. There's been numerous high grade horses race in these colours over the years and this fellow appears capable of continuing that trend.
#1 Millennium Falcon has been ultra consistent all season around this level and should be strongly considered. Connections have opted for a claiming rider in hope of easing the burden of the 135lbs. The draw entitles him to an economical run and the chance to pounce on the leaders upon straightening.
#3 All Riches has speed to burn and should cross from the wide draw to lead. He's got improving to do regarding strength in a finish but he'll certainly make his presence felt for a long way. The rail in its widest position is an advantage to his front running pattern, and should the track be bias to on speed, he's the bet.
#5 Rockpaperscissors was declared a roarer before his racing career began but no signs of breathing difficulties are apparent to this point. A conservative approach tactically has been the option so far and I presume that'll be the case again from the wide draw. With that being said he goes in as a contender but roaring conditions are a recognised liability in the long run.
#11 Get The Monies is regressing slowly in the handicap however his last two performances have been better. It's unlikely he'll trouble the favourites for the major prize but I won't be surprised to see him finding the line well. Vincent Ho has spent plenty of hours educating this 3yo son of "Vadamos" and he's now responding nicely to commands.
Selections : 6,1,3,5,11
R8 - 7,3,6,8,5
R9 - 5,2,9,3,10
R10 - 9,7,6,2,4