3 minute read
The first Group One of The Pinnacles is the time-honoured Railway Stakes.
We see an interesting mix of locals and interstate raiders in this year's Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m), headlined by a true top weight in Tuvalu.
He's a Group One winner and is going as well as ever this preparation, his form against quality opposition reading 4323 this time but since 2000, the Railway has only been won by one horse at the top of the weights when Luckygray won his second in 2013 with 58kg.
The Railway has also been a race for the locals. Only Good Project for Chris Waller in 2015 has successfully come to Perth and won the race in recent years, but there doesn't appear to be a standout local hope that we've had over the past few years.
Western Empire, Inspirational Girl, Regal Power and Galaxy Star owned the race for G & A Williams, Bob Peters and William Pike four years in a row, but with that juggernaut broken up, we saw a return to norm in the winning Timeform rating of the race.
Trix Of The Trade ran to 112 last year to win, following Western Empire (121), Inspirational Girl (115) and Regal Power (109).
Tuvalu is rated 121 at his best and 120 this preparation, coming off a last start 118 rating in the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) at Moonee Valley.
It was a bunched finish there and the form perhaps a bit suspect but Tuvalu was 35 days between runs, with one eye on Perth as good chance to secure another Group One win.
With 58kg, he's going to need to run right up to his best here, but he's the class horse of the field and maps ideally with the $5 at TABtouch looking about right.
The biggest danger, and perhaps even the one to beat, is Alsephina, who looks the best of the local hopes. Not in the Bob Peters colours, but she is team Williams and has Pike on board.
Her two runs this time in have a sense of timing about them, running to a narrow new peak of 110 last start in the Group 3 R.J Peters Stakes (1500m). She was held up behind runners there and just had to wait for the winner, Mojo Rhythm, to make his run before flying home for second.
She was already a 109+ rated mare last time in, with her big closing sectionals suggesting she could rate higher, and now she finds what is almost guaranteed to be a high-pressure mile down in the weights from an ideal middle draw.
Compared to another mare, Roots, there isn't a whole lot between them. She comes over rated 111 off a good win in the Group 2 Hot Danish Stakes (1400m), with a peak of 112, just two pounds higher than Alsephina but I don't love the draw for Roots and I think Alsephina has a better rating in her whereas Roots probably doesn't have the ceiling.
Given Alsephina's four-pound mare's allowance, she narrowly outrated the other key local lead up- the Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) won by Valour Road, and she seemingly has more to come than any of the locals in this field. She's been backed into $4 with TABtouch which is probably getting a little bit short, but she's the box ticker and it's easy to see why she's popular.
If I were to take one out of that race it would be Bustler, who didn't have the best of luck. I'm not sure he's going as well as he was last year or even earlier this year, but his best ratings of 114 with 53kg would go a long way to winning this race.
A competitive edition of the Railway but I think Alsephina is the one that hits this with a sense of timing. She's right on track to run a new peak here, which she'll almost certainly need to do, but gets plenty in her favour and can give Williams & Pike a record sixth win in the race. Tuvalu will take plenty of beating and Bustler could be the big improver.
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