3 minute read
The first day of the Championships at Royal Randwick is one of the best days on the calendar.
Doncaster Mile
Big open field with a potential bog track throwing another spanner in the works. Doubt wide draws will be a disadvantage. I'm happy to be against the favourite Another Wil who is a very progressive horse but certainly doesn't rate anything special just yet. You're banking on a fait bit of upside to take that price.
Second favourite Celestial Legend is also too short. His Randwick Guineas win rated below Southport Tycoon's Australian Guineas win and the form out of the latter has already worked out far better.
That opens up a few opportunities here and Southport Tycoon is one of them. We have his Guineas win one pound clear of Celestial Legend's and he's 3x the price. The wide draw looks fine, Rachel King can just look to tag Another Wil wherever he goes. The wet track is a query but it is for a few.
At the weights, the horse with the best recent rating is Lady Laguna through the Canterbury Stakes. She was very good again in the George Ryder which is often a key lead up and she looks the best placed at the weights with just 51kg. Wet track is good for her, the end of a testing mile might be a query but she was excellent over 1500m last time and off that she's in the finish.
Zougotcha beat Lady Laguna first up, giving her 3kg over 1300m. She won the Coolmore Classic last start despite actually regressing slightly. She's another suited by a wet track and did start $8 in this race last year as a three-year-old.
The other horse that rates near the top is Lindermann. He's back from a dominant win over 2000m which is definitely his best trip, but he did run third in the Verryy Elleegant over a mile prior behind Think It Over and Fangirl.
He gets in very well at the weights with 50.5kg and while he failed off a similar set up in this race last year as a three-year-old, he can roll forward and try to outstay a few sharper types.
Backing Southport Tycoon, Lady Laguna, Lindermann and Zougotcha in that order.
Derby
Riff Rocket rates well clear in the Derby and will need to regress to lose. That's a possibility because he's never seen a heavy track but I think the price to find out is more than fair enough.
He had a bit on the Rosehill Guineas field, making a long, sustained run out wide and still putting them away late. I don't think 2400m will be an issue and having run in the Victoria Derby over 2500m should have done him a world of good in that regard.
Zardozi was okay in the Vinery and did win the Oaks well on the back up. She'll need a new peak to beat Riff Rocket here and looks short enough. Wymark on the back up out of the Tulloch should stay well and Immediacy might be an improver out of the Guineas.
Riff Rocket is more than a fair price. Class can get him home.
T J Smith
It does look a race in two for the T J between Imperatriz and I Wish I Win but there are queries on both. Imperatriz, by our ratings, hasn't been at her absolute best this time in. The Newmarket run was very good, the William Reid win was definitely a few pounds off.
That said, she still won, and we're getting a price for her now. Not too worried about the wet track for her, she has a 116 rating on a heavy track in New Zealand which is the same rating she ran last start.
I Wish I Win won this last year with a big rating on heavy ground, so the obvious bits to like are there. He's very good, but he'll need to be at his best first-up off what I thought looked a fairly average recent jump out.
Leaning to Imperatriz in the T J.
Sires
If Storm Boy handles the track, I think he'll put a hole in these. The draw in the Golden Slipper really worked against him, forced back to the inside when having to be used up early.
He's looked a 1400/1600m horse all along and I love the wide draw for him here. McDonald can just keep rolling forward to bully this race and run it on his terms.
The Slipper was the first time he wasn't the strongest late in a race so I could see people taking the angle that he might be looking for a spell, but I'll trust the stable that he's come through the race fine.
He's got to turn the tables on a couple but I think he will and re-announce himself as the best two-year-old in the country.