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How does Nations Pride’s Saratoga win stack up against State Of Rest’s win in the same race?
It was no shock to see Nations Pride earn comparisons with State Of Rest after his win in the Saratoga Derby Invitational over the weekend.
After all, that 1900-metre event was the race that State Of Rest won before taking out last year's $5 million Cox Plate (2040m) at The Valley.
And Nations Pride earned precisely the same Timeform rating – 118 – as State Of Rest was allocated in his Derby Invitational win.
Nations Pride's trainer Charlie Appleby has since said the son of Teofilo is likely to remain in America and step up in trip, making a Melbourne trip unlikely, but he remains prominent in Cox Plate markets.
Racing And Sports head of handicapping Simon Dinopoulos said ratings suggested Nations Pride was the better horse than State Of Rest at the same stage, but questioned whether the northern hemisphere three-year-old had the same rate of improvement as State Of Rest.
"State Of Rest improved to run 125 in the Cox Plate and is now rated 127 following his victory in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes," Dinopoulos said.
"Prior to winning in the US we had State of Rest rated 112 whereas Nations Pride went to the US rated 118.
"Obviously State Of Rest has come on leaps and bounds since then but at the same point in their careers you would have pegged Nations Pride as the better of the two."
But with State Of Rest returning to defend his crown and Zaaki (126), Anamoe (125) and Real World (125) also targeting the Cox Plate, Nations Pride might need to improve even more than State Of Rest did last year to be a winning chance.
"If either of those four horses turn up and run a peak performance, Nations Pride would need to improve by at least 3-1/2 to four lengths," Dinopoulos said.
"We saw State Of Rest achieve this feat last year but for lightning to strike twice it would appear unlikely."