3 minute read
Racing & Sports expert Adam Blencowe with our look at the Group 1 Moir Stakes on Friday at Moonee Valley.
The 'Thrilla from Chinchilla', Rothfire, parlayed a return to form over the Queensland Winter into a return to the winner's circle early in the Melbourne Spring, winning the McEwen Stakes, the key lead-up to Friday night's Group One Moir Stakes.
A Timeform rating of 120 in the McEwen marks Rothfire down as a terrific chance of doubling up at the same course and distance with only a handful of Moir winners in recent times having bettered that mark – and there are no Black Caviar's or Buffering engaged this year.
It is interesting to note that in the past dozen years since the Black Caviar era the McEwen has thrown up no winners of the Moir and that despite seven winners being among the 27 runners that have used it as a Moir springboard.
There is one rated above Rothfire though, and one that now travels that path from Queensland to Melbourne that so many, including Rothfire, have used to great effect – the 121-rated Paulele.
The Queensland bump has been observable for some time now.
Racing in the warmer climates of Queensland in the early winter while others are standing in cold paddocks getting ring rusty appears to be an advantage. Staying fit and practising racing might make better racehorses!
Competitive racing against tough opposition might be the making of Paulele who produced his best effort to date in the Doomben 10 000 and followed it up with a similar effort in the Kingsford Smith.
His hurdle now might be a return to 1000m, a trip he hasn't seen since his Moonee Valley debut where he was a good winner. He has won twice at 1100m since, including one of his three first up wins from as many attempts, and that Rosebud win at the start of last spring was a high-rating performance – one that bodes well for his chances in the Moir.
Paulele isn't the only one using Queensland instead of the McEwen as her lead up.
September Run takes the same path, unseen since running fifth in the Kingsford Smith behind Paulele, and she had previously run to her 116-rated best and won at the top level around Moonee Valley.
That William Reid success was over 1200m and a return to 1000m might not suit her strong-finishing style ideally.
She is yet to win in four runs at the minimum trip and found trouble in this race last year as things unfolded too quickly for her but she was never seen at her best in that campaign and, having returned to that in the autumn, could be a better version of herself 12 months on.