3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a soft track.
Race 1 – 12.50PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE PLATE (1150 METRES)
Have to stick with 1. Barrichello who has been narrowly beaten at his past two and a victim of circumstances both times. Again had to take off early at Canterbury two weeks ago and got into a bumping duel near the line. Back 100m may assist and worth another chance.
Dangers: 4. Silly Point finished just ahead of Barrichello at Canterbury a month ago though did have an easier run. Kept fresh and looks the logical danger again. 2. Cat D'Oro had his chance in two runs last preparation for two third placings and returns as a gelding here. That might spark him up. He's usually in the market so if there's support it might be significant. 7. Mystic Rebel is on debut after two narrow trial wins on the synthetic track so she's a little hard to line up. Always worth respecting the Newnham first starters.
How to play it: Barrichello WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 2 - 1:25PM HARRY ANGEL @ DARLEY PLATE (1150 METRES)
4. King Of Sparta showed talent in his first prep including a close second to Hilal on debut and a couple of fourths at Group level. Trials since being gelded have been excellent and is clearly the one to beat. Read co-trainer Peter Snowden's comments here.
Dangers: 6. Military Expert has an awkward draw but there was plenty to like about how he won his only public trial at Wyong just over a week ago. Market a good guide but expect him to run well. 10. Marooniyah settled well back on debut at Canterbury but was strong finding the line late into fourth. Not sure coming back 100m suits but better for the experience. 9. Sword Point has trialled twice in June, the latest of them a lot quieter than the first so hasn't really been exposed by the Waller stable. Any support would be significant.
How to play it: King Of Sparta WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 3 – 2.00PM HEINEKEN HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
5. Promise Of Success was disappointing last week, it's fair to say, but she did rally into third when looking beaten. Better surface and extra ground should suit her and she was so good to the eye first-up she could easily bounce back.
Dangers: 6. Rosa Moyessi showed she's on the way up as she followed an all the way Goulburn win with a narrow defeat at Warwick Farm last week, charging very late to just miss. Drops in weight for a slight class rise but this is very winnable. 7. Saas Fee momentarily looked the winner first-up a month ago but was nabbed late. Form around that race is solid at this level and while she's only won one in 14 she's not far off a win. 4. My Demetra rarely runs a bad race and she is very capable when fresh. Probably at her best around a mile or so but no surprise at all to see her in the finish.
How to play it: Promise Of Success WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 – 2.35PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
5. Bring The Ransom won't get a better chance to break through this time in and her second-up effort behind Expat at Rosehill suggests she's closing in on a peak. Improving track is a plus for her and entitled to go close.
Dangers: 6. Yukon had a tough run when resuming at Randwick five weeks ago and no surprise that he dropped out. Expecting he will roll forward and he is likely to be a big improver. 7. Salsonic doesn't win out of turn but produced his best when runner-up here two starts ago, never in it on a heavy track last time. One of those horses that can bob up at any time. 2. Juventus hasn't missed a place in three starts on this track and wasn't disgraced in the Wauchope Cup making a wide run last time. Drawn well and is capable of being placed here.
How to play it: Bring The Ransom WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 – 3.10PM ADMIRE MARS AT ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
5. Skedaddle didn't show the speed expected when she resumed three weeks ago at 1000m but did battle on okay to be beaten two lengths. Drops in weight with the claim and out in trip she should have the chance to lead here. This'll be a test but she's capable of passing it.
Dangers: 1. Hot Spring Gold can be a bit hit and miss but was strong late in winning at Kembla over a month ago. Will get back and if it's run to suit he'll be hard to hold out. 3. Nikau has come back well with a couple of provincial wins before running on into third behind The Empire on a heavy at Warwick Farm. Form out of that race is a bit questionable so far but she's on the up and a definite chance. 6. Lucky To Win finally broke through with an all the way win at Wyong a few weeks ago. Whether he can repeat it remains to be seen but if he lands on pace again can give a sight.
How to play it: Skedaddle WIN ($1.55 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
Race 6 - 3:45PM VINERY STUD HANDICAP (1150 METRES)
12. Embeller didn't have a lot of luck here last time and should have finished much closer than sixth. Her form is consistent when she doesn't strike a heavy track and conditions here should see her produce her best. Drops 6kg, good each-way hope.
Dangers: 1. Americana Magic caught the eye late when resuming here three weeks ago and gets a bit of weight relief. Fitter, drawn well and must be included in the chances. 4. Rustic Steel has looked very good in his two wins and hasn't raced since a close third at this level at Hawkesbury in April. Latest trial okay, has gate one and any support would be significant. 3. Ranges bumped into a promising type when runner-up at Canterbury two weeks ago. Rarely runs a bad race, also drawn well, and has the claim. Has a case.
How to play it: Embeller E/W ($11 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 – 4.20PM TAB HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
7. Dundee Lee improved quickly when she got onto a softer track second-up at Wyong and was quite strong late. Winner over this course on a soft 6 last prep and if the inside is holding up she'll be a good chance.
Dangers: 8. Maccomo was run down on the line here two runs back then again game off a wide gate at Rosehill in a race with a little more depth. Will need the breaks to win but races on speed and can be competitive. 3. O'Mudgee controlled the race from outside the lead to win at Canterbury then sound effort last Saturday behind Papal Warrior. Racing well and if he backs up he's right in this. 5. Jungle Book seemed to have his chance behind O'Mudgee at Canterbury but would be suited by a race with a bit more pressure and could get that here. Keep in mind.
How to play it: Dundee Lee E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT
GRAFTON
Race 7 – 3.59PM GRAFTON DISTRICT SERVICES RAMORNIE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
9. Phobetor won at this carnival last year and has worked his way through the grades well since. Finished over the top to score at Doomben first-up, he should be fitter and is versatile. Expecting him to run a big race.
Dangers: 3. Outback Barbie can be hit and miss but comes out of two Group 1 races including a 1.4 length seventh two starts ago. Listed winner prior to that, tends to leave it late so she'll be charging home and is a good chance. 12. Fender did a bit of work early to get up outside Bandersnatch in the Civic Stakes and only weakened the last 200m. If gate one is no issue his best is good enough to have him in the finish. 5. Southern Lad ran fifth in this race last year and his three runs since a short break have been honest. Has form around Masked Crusader, Marway etc and sound last time at Eagle Farm when run down by Superium. Each-way at least.
How to play it: Phobetor WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.