3 minute read
The rail is in the True and the form has been done for a good track.
Race 1 - 11:55AM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1900 METRES)
3. Our Intrigue parked outside of the leader at Kembla Grange last start in a slowly run race to finish second but it was the work she did from the 1600m to the 1400m (Punters Intelligence reveals an 11.99s split) circling the field to put herself in that position that made the run so meritorious. Despite that early work she still clocked the third quickest last 600m and was just 0.04s outside of the quickest last 200m section. James McDonald sticks with the former Kiwi-trained mare that just looks to be hitting her straps now after a couple of runs for Chris Waller. The draw looks tricky on paper but there doesn't look to be a lot of speed and McDonald now knows that this mare can cope with being put into a race.
Dangers: That BM78 at Kembla looks to hold the key to finding the winner but it isn't a straight forward race to pull apart given how slowly it was run and the excuses that can be offered for most in it. Kerrin McEvoy made a move at the 800m mark on 5. Crystal Pegasus and that told late. Forgive him that and respect that he SP'd favourite. 9. Bazooka was shuffled back in the run when the mid-race moves were made and he found the line as well as anything late. The tempo hurt the chances of 8. Yiyi but he was afforded the opportunity to do more in his last 200m. A wetter track would suit him but he's unlikely to get that on Saturday. 1. Achiever brings a different form line down from Queensland but he only whacked away last start.
How to play it: Our Intrigue WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 2 - 12:30PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
The wide draw is the only knock on 10. Chase My Crown , otherwise would be very bullish that she fights out the finish in this. She is a four-year-old with only eight starts to her name for just the one win but that record doesn't do her talent justice. First up she did her best work late at Taree then second up she ran a luckless third at Newcastle having been plunged in betting minutes before jump. The winner there subsequently wasn't disgraced in the G2 Tea Rose, finishing 4L back from Four Moves Ahead, while the runner up has since bolted in. After holding her own against the likes of Parksville and Charmmebaby last preparation the stable deep ended her in the Kembla Grange Classic. Clearly has talent.
Dangers: 15. Kermatin savaged the line late over 1400m first up at Moruya. She relished getting out to 1600m last preparation winning two on the bounce when she got out to that trip. Tends to get back in her races so the wide draw doesn't change too much for her. Has only had seven starts. 2. Yulong Base had the blinkers on when he won a Highway last preparation and they go back on for the first time this campaign on Saturday, stepping out to 1500m from 1200m. This sets up well for him from the better draw. Never got into the race last start. 4. So Say You is a good Highway benchmark. She'll run her typical honest race but doesn't have the upside of a few others here.
How to play it: Chase My Crown EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 - 1:05PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
3. Ruby Tuesday resumed a winner three weeks ago after being fired out straight to the front. She picked up where she left off last campaign, which was a breakout preparation for the five-year-old mare. She had always possessed good ability but had a habit of missing the start and giving away impossible starts. Second up out to the mile last time in she ran Duais to 1.5L before towelling up Mightybeel. Thereafter she held her own in deeper races than this, including when being forced to go with Canasta in BM88 company, finishing alongside Cisco Bay. She lumps 60kg as the highest rated runner in the race but she fits into this race nicely, particularly from the perfect draw. She doesn't have to lead to win either. Just needs to jump.
Dangers: 1. Cuban Royale comes back in grade and despite being a seven-year-old, he is racing as well as ever at the moment. The excuse for his last start eighth was that he was too close to the inferior inside at Randwick. Was still only beaten 2.5L by Geist and King Of Sparta. 5. Barossa Rosa should be able to turn the tables on last start winner 6. Dalaalaat and dry tracker 2. Exceltic given she was first up and sat on top of a fast speed in a Midway last start. 4. Catapult had no luck through that same race and Nash goes on. No knock on 7. Calgary Queen, apart from the price, with James McDonald on while 9. Budhwar will give a sight.
How to play it: Ruby Tuesday WIN ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 4 - 1:40PM DRINKWISE COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
2. Entente is three from three third up. The five-year-old found the fast lane at Randwick last Saturday from an inside draw but only the two current favourites for the Metrop ran him down, She's Ideel and Montefilia. The query is stepping out to 2400m but he maps perfectly, giving Tim Clark the option to find a back in the run. Clark has ridden Entente in 15 of his 19 career starts. The son of Dundeel can win from in front, as he has shown in the past, but has also shown to be dynamic after tucking in behind the speed which could be an ideal scenario out the 2400m journey with 1. Taikomochi and 3. Fun Fact also engaged. The other key point in his favour is the track. The dry surface not only suits him but looks to be against a couple of his key rivals.
Dangers: The Chris Waller-trained 6. No Compromise has been an iron horse for his new stable, racing through the winter but showing no signs of training off. Probably should have won the Newcastle Cup last start and looks very well placed in this on the minimum. However, he hasn't raced on a good track since a couple of failures in New Zealand when favourite. His stablemate 7. Criminal Code continues to race well, without much luck. Was forced too far back in the Newcastle Cup from the wide draw but faces a similar challenge in this. 9. Pesto is up in grade but he wasn't suited by the slow tempo last start. He is going better than the form guide suggests.
How to play it: Entente EACH WAY ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 5 - 2:15PM PETALUMA HERITAGE STAKES (1100 METRES)
5. Maotai comes through the Rosebud and San Domenico where he more than held his own. Last start he was forced to do a lot of work in the early stages of the race to get outside of In The Congo in the run. That form line of course ties into the Run To The Rose which is the best three-year-old form we have in Sydney. He boxed on bravely on that occasion to be beaten less than a length with 3. Paulele just edging past him late. The market isn't giving Maotai the respect he deserves and he looks perfectly matched with Tim Clark, and over the Rosehill 1100m which favours those that can settle handy. There is no shortage of speed in this and the middle draw gives Clark options. Perhaps we'll even see him park just in behind. He'll get his chance.
Dangers: 2. Home Affairs has looked very sharp in his three trials this time back. The knock being that he was scratched from the Run To The Rose, with any setback not ideal. It forced Chris Waller to skip the Golden Rose and launch the colt's campaign in this. Has the speed to offset the draw. 1. Sword Of State is also tricky to assess with the Kiwi coming off a setback of his own which saw Jamie Richards also skip a mooted Golden Rose campaign. He was a dominant two-year-old in New Zealand and would be surprised if he doesn't measure up. The draw hasn't done Paulele any favours but his Rosebud win was brilliant. 4. King Of Sparta is another one not lacking for talent but facing a tricky map.
How to play it: Maotai EACH WAY ($12 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 6 - 2:50PM NED WHISKY SHANNON STAKES (1500 METRES)
There is a lot in the favour of 1. Imaging. Draws low, gets James McDonald and drops back a grade from contesting two Group One races this time back. The seven-year-old has raced on his home track only three times before for an Ajax win over the Rosehill 1500m, a luckless placing behind Eduardo and a third behind Gytrash and Haut Brion Her, when dropping back from 1600m to 1300m. First up in the Winx Stakes he was chopped out for a run before spearing home to be beaten just 1.7L. It's proved a deep form race since. Then second up he found himself last on the fence in the Makybe Diva from the awkward draw to be beaten 3L by Incentivise with Mo'unga and Colette clocking some of the fastest splits across the entire day behind the winner.
Dangers: 10. Love Tap found his form again last start on the back of an aggressive ride. He rode a hot speed and kept finding. Perhaps that key to him. The price is the knock. He won a BM78 at double figure odds and is now favourite for a Group Two. He drops 6kg but should be getting a lot more weight than that off his rivals. 8. Discharged was ripped out of his comfort zone first up by Big Parade. Strips fitter and is better suited by the tempo of 1500m races. 3. Archedemus has improved sharply third up in both of his past preparations for Team Hawkes. He'll be allowed to roll from the wide draw. Was only beaten 3.8L in the G1 Memsie last start. The speed looks genuine enough for 4. Chat to play a role again.
How to play it: Imaging WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 7 - 3:25PM KEENELAND GOLDEN PENDANT (1400 METRES)
2. Entriviere launched her spring with a rather painless win for her backers in the Sheraco Stakes at Kembla Grange and can't find any reason why the gun Kiwi mare won't win again. She is making a habit of it now. The barrier perhaps doesn't make things as straight forward as two weeks ago but there's only nine runners after a couple of early scratchings and James McDonald can sum it up in the first 200 metres. There could be a spot on the shoulder of likely leader 10. Vangelic if he wants it. She doesn't ping the gates but can muster quick enough to be put into the race. Loved the way she ran through the line two weeks ago, pulling away again very late, suggesting the 1400m is perfect now second up. Who knows, a win here and perhaps an Everest slot becomes tempting for connections.
Dangers: 5. Fituese produced the fastest closing splits across the entire meeting behind Entriviere, with a 33.16s last 600m. That dispelled any query over her running a strong 1200m but now it's the 1400m box she has to tick. The barrier gives her the chance to settle closer and she gets another dry track. On the subject of closing speed, 4. Nimalee wasn't far behind Fituese on the clock herself, but in the Theo Marks. She beat Yao Dash over the Rosehill 1400m last preparation absorbing plenty of pressure, running fast time. 9. Icebath is tracking perfectly towards her spring targets and looks a bet as soon as she strikes another wet track. Like the way Vangelic rallied again late after being headed in the Sheraco last start, finding 1200m too sharp.
How to play it: Entriviere WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 8 - 4:05PM XXXX GOLDEN ROSE (1400 METRES)
It's hard to make a case for any of 1. Anamoe's rivals to turn the tables from the Run To The Rose, which doesn't leave many places to turn. The Godolphin-trained colt didn't smash the clock, nor did he win by a space, however, so does that warrant a scenario where he'd be the shortest priced winner of the Golden Rose in it's 19 year history? It's a reflection of his rivals more than anything. Anamoe was, of course, a star two-year-old and resumed at Kembla Grange after a minor setback with just one hurried 730m trial under his belt. It's impossible to quantify the improvement he'll take from that but the placegetters 5. In The Congo and 7. Remarque no longer boast a fitness edge from that clash. The market has this race cornered, it just comes down to what price you're willing to take.
Dangers: In The Congo's chances look better and better every time you go over the likely map. There isn't another out-and-out leader so he's dangerous with Tim Clark giving his rivals the slip at the top of the straight. He could be four lengths in front of Anamoe turning for home, instead of two like in the Run To The Rose. 2. Artorius is the wildcard. We know he has the quality and reports that he has taken a couple of runs to come to hand this preparation are backed up by the fact that he has peaked on his runs first and second up. His sectionals tell you that. Will be giving most of these a start but should find the back of Anamoe. Remarque loomed in the Run To The Rose. Perhaps the month between runs told the last 100m. Draws perfectly.
How to play it: Anamoe WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 9 - 4:45PM ACY SECURITIES GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)
6. Profondo scrambled home on debut at the midweeks which doesn't scream 'Gloaming winner' at his second start but he'll take plenty from the outing. He looked very new. Another key take away was the tractability he showed and drawn perfectly here from the tricky 1800m start, which doesn't give runners long to navigate the first of three turns, that's a big advantage. The son of Deep Impact had trialled brilliantly prior to launching his career and even before he was seen at the races Richard Litt had pencilled in a Spring Champion preparation for the colt. Without a standout contender among the staying three-year-olds at this stage, perceived upside and the map become two key considerations and Profondo ticks both of those boxes.
Dangers: The obvious form reference is the Dulcify won by Giannis, with 3. Arnaqueur the best 'Gloaming trial' given how strong he was through the line. Punters Intelligence reveals that his last 600m (34.60) was two lengths faster than the second quickest, and that was despite being held up momentarily. Where he gets to from the draw is the concern. 5. Dark Rebel did enough in that race to warrant thought at odds while 4. Alegron could improve given he was a month between runs. The case for Profondo can't be made without 9. French Emperor entering the conversation while the same can be said for 16. Money From The Sky. 15. Benaud won a Nowra maiden on debut but the booking of Hugh Bowman speaks to how highly John O'Shea rates him. 8. Akahata isn't hopeless either.
How to play it: Profondo WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 10 - 5:25PM ELITE SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
5. Kiku jumped out of the ground last preparation, transforming from a handy midweek-level filly into a Group winner all in the space of a couple of runs. Her wins were as strong on the clock as they were to the eye too. First up last time in she made a mess of Bazooka before doing the same to Nicci's Fling. It was then onto the G3 Carbine Club where although she was suited by the quick tempo, she showed a blistering turn of foot to put her rivals away over the mile. That was after being heavily backed too. Forget her failure thereafter when back in trip and having come to the end of her preparation. James McDonald ride, draws well and looks perfectly placed first up over 1400m. Assuming a race like The Invitation is on the radar.
Dangers: 10. Grace And Harmony is the sleeper here, also on the back of a breakout preparation. Signora Nera (since retired) made a statement at her first run as a four-year-old this time back and Grace And Harmony, coming through the same Queensland series, presents to do similar. 2. Ellsberg looks set to be ridden conservatively as he kicks off his Golden Eagle campaign. He'll be giving away a big start from the draw if that's the case. There are plenty of others knocking on the door ready to win again too, including 4. All Hallows' Eve, 6. Academy, 7. Ventura Ocean. 8. Bullfinch and 13. Grand Rumore. Deep race.
How to play it: Kiku WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT