3 minute read
Track likely Heavy 9 and rail out 3m.
Race 1 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):
The middle distance maidens kick us off on a surface that is unlikely to improve out of heavy range. Improving provincial three-year-old 7. Uno Artie is ready to break through at his fifth start stepping up 300m in distance. Worked home well on Soft 7 going two weeks back, and should relish the bigger track as well.
Dangers: Home tracker 1. Avvertimento is better suited back on his home track fifth-up, although debatable whether he would back up in three days after dropping right out in heavy ground at Wagga when the rider reported he didn't handle it. Had previously tackled stronger provincial company, and stable has made a few strategic gear changes, including adding off-side blinkers and winkers. Big watch on metro-based Sebring filly 9. Luisana who hit the line late on debut at Muswellbrook on a very heavy track. Watch the market too on 3. Dash Dash Dash resuming behind a quiet city trial.
How to play it: Uno Artie to win
Odds and Evens: Odds a special
Race 2 MAIDEN PLATE (900m):
Back to a short course battle, with plenty of chances, headed by local two-year-old Astern filly 11. Cash Is Queen who was dominant through the line in a recent trial win here, and carries the limit weight.
Dangers: Keep safe Unencumbered four-year-old 4. Master Joe who debuts behind two trials wins, and draws the inside. Both ex-Victorian filly 5. Crazy Ladies first-up for the new local stable; and at bigger odds 6. Gridare on debut off a steady trial; go through the exotics.
How to play it: Cash Is Queen to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN HCP (1200m):
Enough go-forward runners in this should ensure a solid tempo, and that augurs well for home track filly 4. Smarter Than You who can settle back off the speed and run over the top of them fifth-up off a seven week freshen-up. Was solid enough to the line last time against provincial opposition, and clearly saves her best for home.
Dangers: Obvious big watch on beautifully-bred Shalaa colt 11. Recommendation who debuts in blinkers from the inside gate behind two eye-catching trials for a leading metropolitan stable. Provincial-based 2. Forever Invincible also starts his career in blinkers off two progressive trials, and is bred to thrive in wet ground. Included in exotics 6. Al Ash Lad who can improve sharply second-up; while metro-based two-year-old 15. Sensationabull worked home late in a deeper provincial race first-up, and was preferred here to Muswellbrook on Sunday.
How to play it: Smarter Than You to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1300m):
Nearly always open and competitive contests at this level. Metropolitan four-year-old 3. Tick Tock Boom has been threatening to win a second race for some time, and can peak third-up coming back from two encouraging provincial runs on rain-affected ground. Has a rock-solid 60 percent place rate from 17 starts, often against stronger carrying similar weights, and only needs to get over from the wide draw to be the one to beat.
Dangers: Capable four-year-old 7. Think High hasn't started for more than seven months, but two recent trials have been solid, and he's beaten all but the winner if two from three fresh. Improving six-year-old 8. Reoffender did his best work late in a similar race here four weeks back, and can sit a bit closer here with cover from a softer draw. Honest 4. Gorush Lightning comes back a shade in class fifth-up, and can run into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Tick Tock Boom to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 CLASS 2 HCP (1000m):
Smart provincial filly 1. Rita May resumes for a second prep, and is the one to beat. Won two from four against deeper opposition in her first prep showing tactical speed and good acceleration early in the straight. Looks right up to the mark after winning a 1000m trial, and while this is her first outing in heavy going, she's primed to handle it being by dual Group 1-winning NZ sire Xtravagant.
Dangers: Improving filly 9. Euphrates Dream stuck on okay first-up on a bog track, and gets a softer draw here with a more aggressive jockey taking over; while 3. Agent Moon steps up in class from a second-up win, but still over the odds, although may go to a weaker race at Bathurst.
How to play it: Rita May to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 66 HCP (1000m):
Most open race of the day over the sprint trip. Leaning to Warwick Farm-based six-year-old 9. Skyray second-up. Strike rate is only plain, but like the way he finished off resuming in BM 64 provincial company, and a decision to stay at this distance rather than go up in trip is a key pointer.
Dangers: Ultra honest provincial mare 7. Magic Talent is a reliable wet tracker, and shoots for a third win from her last five, including being placed in a tougher BM 72 Midway three runs back on a Heavy 10. If locally-trained three-year-old 8. Charlemagne brings her best form she'll be in the finish. Found Highway company too rich last start, but previously had swept home to win a BM 58 here carrying 2kg more. Keep safe home tracker 4. Tulla Park especially if the inside is playing okay after finding the line from well back first-up in a deeper race at Canberra. Include both 2. Delightful Dream and 11. Absolutely Foxy in wider exotics.
How to play it: Skyray each way
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 7 CLASS 1 HCP (1200m):
Another wide open sprint to finish. Like promising Kembla three-year-old 6. Steve Steve Steve who resumes off a near seven month spell for only his second start. Charged home from well back on soft ground for an impressive debut win at Wagga, and was held together in a sound city trial a few weeks back.
Dangers: Doubt 1. Wuddacuddashudda will back up after being soundly beaten at Newcastle on Saturday, but this is a drop in quality. Home tracker 4. Mitata was ridden back in the field second-up off an eight week break at Canberra, and hit the line impressively. Watch for any market move with 5. Stariks back from provincial company, up in trip fifth-up, and metro stable has a handy strike rate in the country. Another one first-up, 7. Squeeze Dis is best of the rest behind two quiet trials.
How to play it: Steve Steve Steve
Odds and Evens: Split
BEST BETS:
R4 3. TICK TOCK BOOM
R5 1. RITA MAY
BEST VALUE:
R7 6. STEVE STEVE STEVE