Grafton Winners - Tips For Wednesday, 13th July 2022

3 minute read

Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday’s Grafton meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.

5. Our Candidate was solid in defeat last start at Rosehill Gardens carrying the topweight. Further, the seven-year-old gelding made an early move at the 1200m mark and battled on well in the testing conditions to hold on for third placing. Prior to that start, he beat the rest easily at Warwick Farm in a proven form race that has produced a subsequent winner. The Kris Lees trained galloper will appreciate the drying surface, has a dominant ratings profile relative to his rivals and is proven at the distance.

Dangers: 4. Olympic Glass had every chance at this track 8 days ago but raced well. The four-year-old gelding has a tactical map advantage on his main danger and can rate to win. 2. Italian Tune started hard in the market at Coffs Harbour 17 days ago and 8. El Lago rises in grade but is a last-start winner.

How to play it: Our Candidate WIN ($1.50 TAB Fixed Odds) & Trifecta 5 / 4 / 2,8.
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

12. Wakatipu resumes after a bleeding ban and has trialled well in preparation for her first-up assignment. Further, she wasn't extended in her latest heat and is wound up for this event. The three-year-old filly was heavily backed late in the trade on debut at Tamworth $2.00 - $1.75 and bravely ran into third placing after racing wide throughout. Additionally, Punter's Intelligence recorded that she ran her final 600m/400m/200m splits in 33.79/22.95/12.01, some of the fastest closing sectionals of the entire meeting. That race rated the highest overall relative to the meeting when historically comparing time, class and additional factors. The Brett Cavanough trained galloper brings the best last start figure, maps to have all favours and receives a senior metropolitan rider in Jason Collett for the first time. It's worth noting the jockey/trainer combination is striking at 30%, with a profit on turnover of 63.8%. Hard to beat with even luck.

Dangers: 11. Spiele returns after two trials and hit the line well in her latest heat at Murwillumbah. The filly looks to have come back improved, and if she can step off her first-up figure from last preparation, expect her to be in the finish. 9. Not Taking It produces her career peak performances first-up, will roll forward and give a sight. 6. Falreine has a tricky draw but is fit and will undoubtedly be running on hard. Add 10. Parties Galore and 14. Rossys Typa Girl to all exotics.

How to play it: Wakatipu WIN ($2.30 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

13. Small Town led at a fast pace last start at Scone in stronger grade and battled on well for third place. The lightly raced galloper won with ease in his prior start at Tamworth and ran fast time on rain-affected ground. He brings a solid profile for this event, maps to have a tactical advantage on his main rivals and will take some catching. Each-way.

Dangers: 3. Oakfield Duke is on an upwards ratings spiral and won in style last start at Muswellbrook. Further, that race rated well relative to the day, and the decisive margins confirmed the quality. The three-year-old gelding has a tricky draw but brings the best last start figure and can undoubtedly gobble them up late. 2. Just Strolling is coming out of the same race as Small Town, and he has a starting price advantage over him. Further, he is rock-hard fit and has a definite chance. 8. Impact Star was wide last start and is ready to peak third-up.

How to play it: Small Town E/W ($6.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

Lightly raced improver 2. Le Melody is a nice type and has been impressive, winning her two career starts. The three-year-old showed natural gate speed to sit outside the leader in an even tempo at Tamworth 19 days ago, and she accelerated away from her rivals to score and run time. Further, the filly recorded the fastest final 600m split of the entire meeting in 33.20 and went through the line full of energy. The Cody Morgan trained galloper rises in grade but has a dominant last start figure relative to her rivals, and a repeat of that effort will make her hard to catch.

Dangers: 3. Licciardi is a knockout and expect her to be savaging the line late. 1. Your Too Good has a strong starting price profile with past figures that must be respected. Add 11. My Girona who was checked/blocked at a critical stage last start and 15. Just Cosmos to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Le Melody WIN ($1.35 TAB Fixed Odds) & Trifecta 2 / 1,3,11,15 / 1,3,11,15.
Odds & Evens: Split.

1. Diasonic must carry a hefty weight, but he brings superior form-lines relative to his rivals. The five-year-old gelding had every chance last start at Doomben and ran on ok in a high-pressure race. Moreover, he was second-up, rising sharply in distance 1350m-1660m and just peaked on his run. The form out of that race has since been proven, with the eventual winner Majestic Colour coming out and winning the Winx Guineas (1600m) at his next start. The Richard Laming trained galloper maps to have all favours, and Matthew McGuren rides.

Dangers: Expecting significant improvement from 4. Ambridge who has got too far back in his two runs this preparation and is coming out of high-rating races. The gelding's peak figure came at this track/distance last campaign, and he can roll forward with the rise in trip being ideal. 2. Contreras overcame difficulties to win last start and is in career-best from. Some query back in distance but will be hitting the line hard. 5. Geostorm is a last-start winner with a positive map. 6. Princess Sparkles drops 5kg, and Jason Collett rides.

How to play it: Diasonic WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) & Ambridge WIN ($12.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

9. Bootscooter has been a model of consistency this preparation working her way through the grades and is on an upwards ratings spiral. The three-year-old filly was brave, winning her last start at Randwick in a duel after having the bias against her. In addition, there was a big gap to third to confirming the quality. She is rock-hard fit, can improve again over further distance and receives a senior rider. Each-way.

Dangers: 15. Imatruestar is a knockout chance where nothing has gone right in both runs for him this prep. The gelding can settle closer and has past figures that can put him in the finish. 6. Aramis is an improving type and won impressively last start at Gosford 20 days ago. He went through the line full of energy and could win again. 2. Whitewater has strong form lines and maps well. Add 14. Oakfield Storm and 17. Lisztomania to trifectas and first fours.

How to play it: Bootscooter E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: ODDS.

8. King Of Sparta overraced first-up in a slow tempo at Eagle Farm 18 days ago and had slight excuses throughout. Further, the gelding wasn't suited by the race shape/setup and was a drifter in the betting, albeit holding favouritism. Second-up last preparation, the gelding was well fancied in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas (1400m) $6.50-$4.00, and he savaged the line to win in fast time. The Peter & Paul Snowden trained galloper will appreciate the anticipated fast tempo engaged where he produces all his peak figures as he excels in high-pressure races. In addition, the drying surface suits, he has a strong starting price profile relative to some of his rivals and expect him to hit the line hard.

Dangers: 13. Gogol, who represents value, is ready to peak reaching optimal fitness. The five-year-old gelding beat the rest easily in a high-rating race last start at the Gold Coast 25 days ago and ran the fastest final 600m/400m splits of the entire meeting. He ran a career-high figure third-up last preparation and repeating that effort can put him in contention. 3. Desert Lord was wide at Ipswich last start and ran on well. His sectional profile suggests he's ready to improve and maps well. Market watch 4. Hard Empire who is a proven first-up performer, and 5. Prime Candidate is rock-hard fit.

How to play it: King Of Sparta WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Gogol ($17.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Odds & Evens: SPLIT.

12. Full Press returned at Coffs Harbour 17 days ago where he was honest in defeat, and he beat the rest easily in a high rating race. The four-year-old was specked $17-$10 that day which confirms he has come back well and ran up to market expectations. He maps to have all favours and any improvement off his first-up figure will put him right in the finish.

Dangers: Forgiving of 10. Volfoni's last start at this track where nothing went right. Prior to that start, he hit the line hard-running second and ran the fastest final 600m split of the entire meeting in 34.03. The Greg Kilner trained gelding is suited by the rise in distance and drops in grade. 9. Rupertson is up in grade but has a positive map. Add 3. Cabsav and 11. Yulong monoceros to trifectas and first fours. It's worth noting 16. Imatruestar who is a dual acceptor. Additionally, she can win this race if they choose to run here.

How to play it: Full Press WIN ($9.00 TAB Fixed Odds) & Volfoni WIN ($13.00 TAB Fixed Odds). Odds & Evens: EVENS.