3 minute read
Saturday’s Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes sees the James Cummings trained Trekking the clear-cut favourite and deservedly so.
A revelation the last 12 months, Trekking has made the rise from a Listed/Group 3 sprinter to a genuine Group 1 performer.
He began the calendar year rated 108, with his latest performance seeing him return a Timeform rating of 122.
Continuing to improve with racing, Trekking has gone to another level, having rounded out his last campaign rated 119 when winning the Stradbroke.
Unsuited over the 1000m first up (still only beaten 1.6L), his second up win at Caulfield was very fast (almost too fast), until he confirmed that effort when finishing third in Everest.
A sectional star behind Pierata last start, he easily brings the best form and is already an above average winner of the Winterbottom.
In the last five years the average winning rating sits at 118, with a Timeform rating of 122 seeing him win all bar one renewal of the Winterbottom (no shame finishing third behind Takeover Target and Apache Cat in 2008).
Yet to be seen off a 28 day break, however his fresh record is elite.
When having 15-21 days between runs, Trekking has notched up four wins from seven starts, when having 29-35 days between runs, he is unbeaten (2/2).
He won the Stradbroke Handicap fifth up last preparation and while it may appear an afterthought, regardless he has had the perfect preparation.
Have him marked even money and hence more than happy to bet up with close to 2-1 on offer about his chances.
The inside draw should allow him to settle closer to the speed (hopefully midfield) and with even luck his class should prevail.
The Team Pearce trained Vital Silver shapes as the main danger following his game effort in the Manikato Stakes last start.
Rated 118 off the back of that, he returns home where he is notably unbeaten (3/3 at Ascot).
The wide draw forced their hand in the Manikato, but from the middle draw expect him to be a lot more prominent.
If Trekking ends up getting caught in traffic, Vital Silver could be off and gone and if able to hold his form, he should prove hard to beat.
Fellow West Australian Flirtini was visually very impressive in the lead up, though somewhat overplayed in the early market.
Concede she has a good chance, but has to elevate sharply (Timeform rated 109) if she is to defeat the above two.
In her favour she is only lightly raced, she's in the right stable and is a noted flier at this course and distance.
Of the rest the Godolphin pair Home Of The Brave and Viridine appear the next in line.
Good luck and happy punting.