3 minute read
The world’s greatest race has assembled a typically fantastic field for Sunday night’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe from Longchamp.
We may not have the two best horses in the world lining up in Equinox and Paddington (in that order) but this year's Arc has attracted a very deep field of stars which makes for an excellent betting race.
Five horses in single figures and only three of the 15 over 20-1 should make for an excellent race with most of the field thinking they'll be in with a real shot.
Ace Impact comes up favourite, unbeaten from five starts. His peak of 127 came when winning the French Derby although was well below that but still won first up at Deavuille. That 127 stands alone but if he's able to get back to it he'll go very close and he does profile as the horse in this field that has the progression in him to really put up a world class performance whereas a few others are fairly exposed.
He easily accounted for Feed The Flame who started shorter in the market in the French Derby. Feed The Flame has run to 120 and 116 since, beaten by Fantastic Moon last time out at $1.50. Fantastic Moon is another trending the right way but would need a new peak.
Continuous is interesting. He started 5-1 behind Ace Impact at Chantilly and was beaten out of sight but has come back and steadily improved, running 120 and 124 his past two, winning the St Leger impressively last time out.
There was little between Bay Bridge and Simca Mille when they met behind Iresine at Longchamp over 2100m in April. The former has done more racing since then but been steady around the 122 mark and I wonder if that's just him now. The latter won well last time but I think would need a new peak again.
Through Seven Seas is yet another Japanese runner desperately trying to give them their first Arc. Deep Impact, Orfevre and more recently Titleholder have failed and she's not as good as any of them. She did run a new career peak last start in the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen (2200m), second to Equinox obviously looking attractive, however he was well below his best there and her rating of 118 (around 121 after her 1.5kg allowance) will need to be improved on.
The form that looks key is through the King George. Hukum beat Westover in a ripping contest with King Of Steel well back in third. That form looks good with King Of Steel (not in the Arc) beaten a length by Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes. He'd also towelled up Continuous at Ascot prior.
Watching that race, Westover sat wide without cover for the majority of the race, went early and was only run down by Hukum getting off his back late in what was a strongly run race.
Westover has now run to 128-126-126-125 in his past four runs, including a distant second to Equinox in Dubai, with that form standing up seemingly everywhere it goes.
He's currently at $8 behind Ace Impact ($4.5), Hukum ($5.5) and Continuous ($6.5) and I think there's a case to be made he's the horse to beat.