3 minute read
There's still a couple of weeks to go until spring but some of it's hopefuls are out to get it started at Caulfield on Saturday.
In truth the Caulfield card looks to be better racing than punting, with plenty of trappy races that can prove more valuable for the weeks ahead than on Saturday, and one of those races is the Vain Stakes where a solid looking group of colts are out to establish themselves ahead of bigger races deeper into the carnival.
Six of the nine resume, part of the reason it fits the 'trappy' category, but the early markets leave enough meat on the bones of the best performed horse in the race and we are happy to gamble on Rulership setting the bar beyond the improvers below him.
Rulership skipped the Rosebud in Sydney last week on the heavy going there and switches south to Caulfield where he produced his career peak in the Blue Diamond Prelude where he forced one of the top colts around to pull out a high quality performance to peg him back.
The margin between him and Hanseatic that day probably flattered Rulership but his early pace is an asset around here and there's a decent chance it proves decisive this time around.
Again his biggest danger looks sure to spot him an in-running advantage. Hydro Star looked very new but very talented winning at Sandown on debut but he wasn't taking aim at one nearly as good as Rulership and he won't be able to repeat that feat without putting his obvious upside to use now.
We won't find a play in the main race on the card but we won't let it go without comment. Mystic Journey won the race last year and she had fairly reasonable excuses thereafter. The gloss is off but she's far from finished. It's easy to see the two Perth horses, Regal Power and Arcadia Queen, needing this run.
Arcadia Queen has huge talent but she's clearly had more than her share of issues and it'll be a (pleasant) surprise if she is anywhere near her top for this. Regal Power's attitude is as likeable as his talent but 1400m around Caulfield can unfold too quickly for him.
That leaves the cerise and white and the great Willie Pike's best chance on the card with Showmanship who looks like being sent around odds on (or near enough) in the last.
He's managed to justify quotes of 1-8 and 1-12 at his latest couple, as the handicapper has largely left him to play the bully, and that may well be the case again in a Bm84 that is hardly out of the ordinary on Saturday. He is almost certainly good enough to win it but there isn't so much substance to what he has been doing in Perth to say conclusively that he is vastly better than it, and on times he's one that can be opposed at the likely prices.
Wilmot Pass is the one to do that with. He got strung up in traffic, paying the full price for missing the start, at Moonee Valley but had won nicely prior to that, reeling off good closing splits, and he has peaks above and beyond that from last prep including a strong placing third up at this course and distance. A repeat of that sort of form here will at the very least pop a question to Showmanship - if you're as good as they say you should bury this... What have you got?
It's a fascinating close to the day and the perfect kickstarter to the carnival ahead.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 5 #3 Rulership @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 9 #14 Wilmot Pass @ $8.50