3 minute read
It looks a race in two of the inaugural of The Northerly at Ascot.
Formerly the Kingston Town Classic, The Northerly Stakes takes place as the last Group 1 for The Pinnacles and in Australia for the calendar year. The rising filly versus the established performers over 1800 metres under the weight-for-age conditions.
G & A Williams, together with owner Bob Peters, have dominated in recent years winning three of the last four including the best winner, three-year-old filly Arcadia Queen in 2018.
She completed the Champion Fillies-WA Guineas-Kingston Town treble, running to 121 with Timeform in her dominant 4.5 length win, the best rating we've seen of the race by some margin.
When accounting for the mare's allowance, she effectively ran to 125, which is better than anything in this year's field has run in their life.
Cascadian comes closest and by default that has made him a narrow favourite, the subject of a strong push and into sub $3.
He's run to his peak of 122 twice now and shown his remarkable versatility, running it to win the Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m) and the Group 2 Hill Stakes (2000m) just three starts ago.
Since then, he's run 119-117, closing off a slow pace in the Group 1 Champions Mile (1600m) at Flemington behind Alligator Blood.
He looked ultra-impressive winning a trial at Belmont Park and James Mcdonald flies over to take the ride. He'll be in the second half of the field but if he runs up to his very best he's nearly guaranteed to win.
If he runs up to his last start, the market probably has him about right as a narrow favourite.
The main, and perhaps only danger is three-year-old filly Amelia's Jewel. She's only tasted defeat once but bounced back strongly to win the Group 2 W.A. Guineas (1600m) last time, reeling off some slick splits to post a figure of 109+.
At the weights, Racing And Sports deems Cascadian's last start to be four pounds better than Amelia's Jewel, but that doesn't factor in her upside. Three-year-olds, especially fillies, have a great record in this race and have often improved out of three-year-old races into this.
Three-year-olds have won six of the last fifteen Northerly Stakes and five of the last twelve. Of those winners, they have improved their rating an average of 8.2 pounds- Ihtsahymn the best at +10 and Playing God the lowest at +5.
Off their last starts, Amelia's Jewel needs to improve a minimum of 4 pounds to win which looks well within her reach. If Cascadian runs to his best, she'd need to improve at least 9 pounds, which would put her well into Arcadia Queen territory.
She'll need the breaks at the right times from barrier one in a race devoid of pace which looks some query- Cascadian drawn out can at least have clear air to make his run and I think the market has it right with the proven weight-for-age galloper narrow favourite over the filly.
Of the others, Bustler was good in the W.A. Guineas but Amelia's Jewel came from behind him and dropped him late, running her last 200m in 11.08 compared to his 11.34. His best chance would be to roll the dice and try to lead to give himself a chance of turning the tables.
Trix Of The Trade was a solid winner of the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) but Railway winners have a poor record in The Northerly and he'd need to improve another 2-3 lengths to be winning if Cascadian runs anywhere near his best.
Alaskan God started favourite in the Railway and was disappointing but 1800m third up suits much better. I'd be putting him in for third/fourth in any exotics.
It appears you're either team gelding or team filly here and one of them should be winning. You'd like to see them making ground out wide earlier in the day and if that's the case, J-Mac should have Cascadian close enough on the turn to strike.
It could be a great finish if Amelia's Jewel gets a rails run and Cascadian is flying home down the outside, but I think the Racing And Sports power rankings #1 jockey and #1 trainer get the job done.