3 minute read
Festival Stakes day at Rosehill, with the majority of the races looking wide open.
With plenty of tricky angles this Saturday, it can be best to keep things simple, and put simply, Serpentine is the best horse in the Listed Christmas Cup (2400m).
Since transferring to G Waterhouse & A Bott, the former English Derby winner has run to 115 with Timeform on 5/7 occasions. The only misses were in the Q22 won by Without A Fight, and the Melbourne Cup, won by Without A Fight.
Every other race he's run has been rock solid, and at a level that I think probably wins this race. It's easy to forgive last start in the Cup, 3200m on a fast deck, leading at a very strong tempo, the others on speed also knocked up and walked over the line.
He freshens up and comes back to 2400m here which suits, and rather than the last start I'm perhaps more concerned about the state of the track. Currently a heavy 8 but with warm weather predicted, yet also varying levels of precipitation, there's every chance we get back to a soft 5 which will suit him ideally.
The stablemate, I'm A Dirty Rascal (formerly King Of The Castle), also makes some appeal in that race. Fourth in a Group 1 Irish St Leger and rated 114 by Timeform, he was okay at his first run for Waterhouse & Bott, having come from Robert Hickmott like Serpentine did before him.
That was over 1850m and he worked home nicely. Quickly to 2400m suits and Tim Clark sticks with him down on 53kg. While we know the likely level of quite a few of these, he's one that could jump out of the ground over this trip with that run under the belt.
Over to the feature and again I want to take two horses in this. Our ratings say Acquitted should be close to favourite here, returning with an equal career peak of 105 with Timeform at Newcastle. It was only a Bm94 there but he hit the line strongly and drops to 53kg here.
Getting to 1500m looks ideal and if he can just slot in midfield he'll be hard to hold out. The other one that could be a sharp improver is Dajraan. He was awful first up in The Hunter but did win this race last year running to 107.
If there's a stable that can quickly turn around form it's Waterhouse & Bott, and at 30-1 he makes a bit of appeal.
SYDNEY SPECIALS
Bet of the day: Race 9 #2 Serpentine at $6.50
Each-way play: Race 7 #15 Acquitted at $11