3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of games in the 2019 AFL Season.
We’ll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won’t always just be who will win.
CARLTON v RICHMOND
Thursday 21 March @ MCG
The opening clash of each year is the traditional one between Richmond and Carlton and it could be an interesting affair.
Richmond’s long wait for a flag ended in 2017 and then it was perceived that the running double was but a formality – at least by the betting market setters.
The Tigers have become a very consistent group, rarely straying from their right form lines.
In fact bar for one poor day against St Kilda in 2017 (which didn’t matter) and one against Collingwood in 2018 (which did), their performances are usually that of a team highly in control of a system which includes a lot of pressure.
They know what their teammates will produce and trust in them.
Carlton, on the other hand, come from a position of little strength. While Richmond led the 2018 league, the Blues propped up the table.
We keep hearing about the green shoots and in Cripps, Curnow, No 1 draft-pick Sam Walsh plus recruits like McGovern and Newman, maybe those will be trees faster than you know.
Cripps is such a great player when he can get a run at it with injury. He surely looks a Brownlow medallist in the making.
With the new rules as the unseen impact on the season proper, how teams play the 6-6-6 and how it changes roles will be fascinating.
Some media types even suggested Richmond is the team it will impact most on. That is hard to fathom given the quality Cotchin, Martin, Edwards etc can give as first call to the ‘bigs’ such as Riewoldt and the buzzy little bees like Rioli, Higgins and Short.
Then there is Tom Lynch who will play his first game since the big free agency transfer last year. He will fit in just fine there eventually, even if it takes a few games.
In fact, given Richmond’s lack of major injuries to key players of recent years, he could well be critical should that tide change.
One can see the big ‘mids’ heading to the goal square for extended periods this year. It’s a role Martin, Cripps, Fyfe, Dangerfield etc will love and so defences will struggle to maintain matchups. We get to see it first hand in the first game.
Until such times as Richmond show any propensity to drop off from their level of attack on the ball and Carlton show they can sustain it for more than say two quarters, you have to say it’s the Tigers by a fair margin.
That said Richmond hasn’t put them away by a landslide all that often so the start looks appealing.
Match Selection: Richmond by 31 points
Suggested Bet: Richmond 1-39 @ $2.30