3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2019 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
GEELONG v ADELAIDE
Friday 28 June @ GMHBA Stadium
Match of the round sees first play fifth in what could be the portent of a big final in September.
Geelong runs into a second South Australian team in a row. Will the Adelaide bravery continue?
The Cats lost by 11 points and yet it felt so much more. They were manhandled by Port right from the off.
Even in a low-scoring match, the Power tackled harder than Geelong, dominated the ruck and controlled the game. It was easily Geelong's worst contest of the year.
Tom Hawkins was essentially owned. He has had a fantastic season but with the supply not as crisp and the support less effective, he had one kick FOR THE GAME.
Dangerfield and Duncan were very strong but there was less out of Ablett, Selwood and for the first time in a while Kelly.
Thrashed in the clearances, they will have to address that and Adelaide is an interesting one to do that against.
The Crows got away from Richmond two weeks ago but it was late. Such a fluctuating game in Adelaide, they were down badly, got back, went behind and then drew away with a big ending.
Potentially they could or should have lost some games of late. But they didn't. Their percentage will stand them in good stead.
They continually need the Crouch brothers not just combining for near 80 possessions but help from Sloane and Ellis-Yolmen.
Then the big question begins. How does the forward line combine and function? Jenkins, Walker and Betts coalesced for nine goals last outing. With all Richmond's outs, surely they'll find it harder against this Geelong defence.
We know the run they get from off half-back and in a team of Rorys, Laird and Atkins offer just that impact.
Geelong's record off a bye is utterly preposterous. Their record the game after is as good as the previous game was bad.
Have to believe Geelong bounce back in this. If Adelaide bring the same pressure as Port then they are a hope but can they do it – especially at the Cattery?
In some ways this ground suits Adelaide as much as Geelong in terms of shape. The thinner confines straighten them up rather than getting caught wide. It's a bit like the Swans play well at Geelong.
Can't see Geelong struggling with the stress as much here though. They have too many match winners in midfield that Adelaide can't get enough clamps on.
The Crows will be either considered a Top Four chance after the game or fighting to hold the Eight with a loss. The latter is far more likely.
If Adelaide try to control Tim Kelly again seeing how well Port did that, and knowing they hate seeing Dangerfield doing it again his old team, looking for Ablett to have a big game.
He might kick a bag – and a bag these days is four!
Match Selection: Geelong by 23 points
Suggested Bet: Gary Ablett 25+ possessions @ $3.10