3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2020 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
GEELONG V BRISBANE
Thursday 9 July @ SCG
The time honoured Sydney clash of Geelong and Brisbane kicks off the next block of games as we exit Victoria – probably for the vast majority of the year.
Geelong broke that run of WLWLWL by knocking over a plucky Gold Coast but in reality, had Matt Rowell not done his shoulder early, they might well have been hearing footsteps.
They couldn't shake off the youngsters until well into the last quarter and when playing at home you'd expect that should happen earlier.
They are a quandary Geelong. Huge midfield talent, often get up for milestone games and then can peter out against more formidable opponents.
And yet by season's end they'll probably be in the top eight and could be nearer the pointy end with their record at home. That seems to be when they strike a few hurdles.
It is probably a good thing that Dangerfield and Selwood weren't relied on last week but their overall solidity band aids over somewhat of a blandness.
That loss of Tom Stewart will likely be felt far more this week against the big men of Brisbane.
Speaking of them we probably haven't seen a more impressive victory all season than theirs last week.
They gave the ladder leading Port Adelaide a complete drubbing after it was a sounding out boxing match in the opening stanza.
Ten goals to five after that could well have been more. Their fluency, speed and aggression gave the Power little time to adjust.
Tack on Lachie Neale racking up more stats and the variation of their goal kickers and you have a dangerous squad. It's best when one man is not the sole trader.
Sometimes they can be Cameron or bust OR Hipwood or best. But when McStay and McInerney start clunking them or when the Berrys and Rayner are cashing in, that poses far more questions for defences.
Hence stopping them at the source has to be the main focus. It's not easy to do but giving them less opportunities is a better reality.
To some extent Geelong has the chance to do that more at the shorter/wider SCG than the longer and thinner GMHBA. The Gabba is MCG size as well remember.
With this being their first time away from the Gabba since resumption, Brisbane has some adjusting of their own to do. They certainly aced the free-kick they were given with the 'Covid-draw'.
It shapes as a real statement game. Whoever wins this lands a marker in the ground. Brisbane gets a little gap on some major rivals. Geelong set them back in the pack and consolidate a three game win streak.
Should he play (yet to be confirmed) this is a match that Ablett can shine in. Brisbane has not played the SCG with much conviction for a while. And the tall forwards can get lost across half forward. Clearances become the game and fast centre bounce clearances can determine outcomes.
Not surprised that Brisbane is the favourite but the betting margin seems too large. We'll tip Geelong as their style of play could be more conducive to this ground.
Match Selection: Geelong by 10 points
Suggested Bets: Geelong @ $2.25