3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2021 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
MELBOURNE V GEELONG
Friday 10 September @ Optus Stadium
In an amazing twist, two Rd23 fixtures this year, which dictated the order of the finals, will in fact become the two Preliminary Finals for 2021 but in reverse order.
And remember those two games were fought out by margins of 2 points and 4 points with the latter won with a kick after the siren.
The latter of those is the former here as this time around it is Melbourne who host Geelong (well sort of as it's at Optus Stadium in Perth).
You only have to recall the two oldest football clubs meeting in that match at the Cattery to know how soon the tide can be turned and whether wounds have healed.
This was the game the Cats led by seven goals at one stage then, with important cogs sitting on the bench, their wheel began to get very rickety.
By the time they got back on it was too late to halt the express train that was Melbourne and big Maxy Gawn kicked one after the hooter to send all of the MCC faithful into rapture.
The amount of time it took Geelong to surge away in the second quarter was equalled by how long it took Melbourne to run them down to the post.
That was led by Clayton Oliver's extraordinary effort as the match went on and then all the lieutenants filed in behind. Geelong had no answer to the torrent.
Well fast forward three weeks and then cross to the other side of the country for the replay.
The Demons have had the week off since they blew the Brisbane Lions to the 'you know where'. Once again led by Oliver but with Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw helping him out in the middle, they established a five goal margin at the half and the overall situation barely moved at all.
That is what you'd say was a clinical, consistent and mature dismantling of another semi-final opponent – something you could never say about Melbourne for a long time.
Sure they'd love Ben Brown to get onto a few and sure they'd hope Tom McDonald clunked some but with Fritsch and Pickett intermingling and then those midfielders adding their potency, that is a recipe to win.
Now for the first time in a long while they face the challenge of a knock out game. Although remember they had the situation of playing West Coast in that Rd21 fixture on the Monday night over there when a loss could have been disastrous and it ended with flying colours – actually it ended with bolts of lightning to be honest.
This time is it the Geelong Cats who they will face in Perth not a home team – albeit this lot have been in Perth for a couple of weeks already having played GWS there on Friday.
After a very slow, almost pedestrian first quarter which resembled the sounding out in a World Title Fight rather than a footy game, Geelong got some of their mojo back.
In kicking ten goals in the second half, that showed their ball movement is capable in a big game. But the man power and presence of the opposition this time around is so much more imposing.
What will please them from the Semi-Final is that it wasn't driven by Dangerfield, Selwood or Duncan. It was more Menegola, Guthrie and Tuohy taking the Stewart role having the biggest impact. That leaves the big names to put the Superman cape on this week.
They did however get 9 of their 15 majors from the big three talls. Surely that won't be happening against the most accomplished defenders in the league.
May and Lever won't be letting that dominance reoccur.
The analogy that the best ability is availability come Prelim Final day is a bit corny but the reality is it does have validity (can I have any more itys in one sentence).
Parfitt's injury will be significant as they aren't flushed with significant midfield depth now.
The Coaching Move: With Melbourne rightly starting favourites and Chris Scott considered by some as one of the hardest to coach against game day, what move could he pull.
Melbourne rely so much on Lever as the intercepting, unrestricted half back. Why not have someone assigned to him as a tagging half forward. Run with him, bump him like a midfielder, contest all the way. Given his size could that be Menegola's role? Rohan has the size but he's more an explosive runner than a contester.
This comes down to Melbourne holding their nerve and getting the job done. They are playing better than Geelong and have the momentum more than their opponents but it only takes one bad half and it's over. Just recall what Geelong faced in 2016 as the Swans got eight goals on them before they'd woken up.
At some stage it will require Oliver et al to have a period of dominance as you can well expect Dangerfield especially and Selwood too to know their footballing mortality could rest with these next two games.
But Petracca can blow this game away himself in one 20 minute patch as there isn't an obvious midfield match up defensively. It's likely, and therefore it's the Demons to make their first Grand Final in a very long time.
Match Selection: Melbourne by 22 points
Suggested Bets: Christian Petracca 2+ goals @ $2.75