3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
ST KILDA V GEELONG
Saturday 14 May @ Marvel Stadium
A short term (or even long term) spot in the Top Four could be there for the winner of this good clash on Saturday in a replay of not just a semi-recent Grand Final but also a very famous game on this very surface.
Still two unbeaten teams halfway through the season, went toe to toe, blow for blow and only in the last few minutes was it decided. That was high quality footy on a Sunday arvo.
Well these two mobs aren't at that level and don't have the amount of elite participants as that 2009 event had but it is worth the same result in the end and the four points will be equally as well received.
While St Kilda were outclassed last weekend, let's be honest, who hasn't been and who won't be by Melbourne this season. Someone would be very brave as of this minute to be confidently tipping someone else to be stopping back to back flags.
You cannot afford to not kick a goal from the jump when a top side has four of their own. From that time on, the match spluttered and mumbled along with a 5/6 goal margin. The Demons were value for the win.
St Kilda certainly were not blown away but just didn't have enough class across enough lines. Their midfield generals in Steele, Crouch, Ross etc all got enough pill but couldn't do enough with it. Enough already.
In games like that, it is where a Bradley Hill or Zak Jones needs to run the lines, make the rivals chase and offer quicker feed to his forwards. Too much it seemed was being generated in the back third of the ground instead of the front third.
And Marshall with Ryder are usually their 'one wood' but Gawn and Jackson are rarely defeated and so it was.
Things could well be a lot different this week meeting Geelong who are renowned as struggling in the big man department. So much so that didn't even play one last week as Blicavs did most of the ruck work. Stanley is back now it must be said.
That is certainly an avenue that the Saints must focus on but you can get roved to by a quality midfield and Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Guthrie etc could well play that game this time.
Even without true ruck stock strength, they were far too good for GWS who can't get momentum again and it likely cost their coach. Injuries have been the traditional bane of the Giants but not this year.
Geelong has truly benefitted from two big men forward kicking decent hauls in 2022. With Cameron and Hawkins both sitting inside the top five of the Coleman race, it can paper over some cracks from a lack of scoring elsewhere.
And that has been Geelong's concern. When the mids don't hit the board, it relies too heavily of the big boppers getting them out of jail. You can say that of many teams but few have TWO as big and powerful.
St Kilda has good vibes going in here. Despite losing two on the bounce they were hardly horrific and the Cats can't put wins back to back which is often their domain.
Opposition ruck stocks and forward depth will make Geelong worry for long periods. Is there a true match up for Max King if Blicavs has to do any sort of decent work in the middle of the ground?
Even if so, happy to take the slight outsider in this game on their home deck.
Match Selection: St Kilda by 17 points
Suggested Bets: St Kilda @ $2.10