3 minute read
Racing and Sports will provide analysis of many games in the 2022 AFL Season.
We'll endeavour to run through the form, incorporate appropriate stats and also supply a betting prediction which won't always just be who will win.
RICHMOND V CARLTON
Thursday 16 June @ MCG
If the once traditional seasonal opener didn't have enough focus on it, second time around in 2022 it has incredible importance and with complete justification.
Many rightly mocked the fact Richmond and Carlton were afforded such luxuries and exposure on opening day for a decade (something that was taken away this year).
However the second presentation of this match-up has two teams in far better form and with so much to play for for added spice.
The Tigers haven't the complete aura about them which embodied their four years of excellence. But reality is in 2022 they may not need to be that good.
Having said that they were outside the '8' around halfway in 2017. We all know how that ended – Crows fans look away! This is not that much different.
Simply making a Preliminary Final offers equal hope to four teams and from there it is toss a coin under the pressure of making the biggest weekend of the year.
When you have D Martin in your team, he can at worst lift you over the line in one final and at best win three Norm Smith Medals. So while ever there is life in that bull there is hope.
Just like the rest of the team, Martin hasn't been at his pulsating best but a Bart Cummings style preparation, seeing him peak for the Mackinnon (Prelim) and the Cup (Grand Final), is on the cards. However his absence tonight is so important.
Once again they did enough to beat Port at home in another of this season's rollercoaster matches. Down early, well in front, losing the lead only to hold on late.
The backline got a lot of the ball which is another 2022 trait. So many teams find resolve off half-back. The genesis of many an attack comes from post the opponent's missed attempt at goal.
Naturally they will be better with Lynch back to offer Riewoldt some relief and then Balta can go back to the backline in full while Bolton can spend more time in the midfield as well suring up all those areas.
They'll always have Liam Baker to rely on as well. He's a reliable lieutenant for so many who get forward of the ball and need back up but is also capable of kicking the odd goal too.
It will take a big effort for Richmond to stop a season shut out by Carlton who won that opening contest in March. That is after the Blues did a good job to avoid all the hullabaloo of Essendon's big night last Friday.
Even with an opponent not on top of their game, that freedom could have allowed the Bombers to surprise their fierce rival.
But Carlton did well to hold their nerve, never get into any scoreboard pressure and the last quarter was a zero goal bore fest. They'd no doubt be just as happy about that.
They too keep getting impetus off the half back line. Docherty, Newman, Saad etc provide plenty of drive for them albeit their stoppage/clearance game is their 1-wood. Richmond will do well to cut square around the ball against Cripps, Hewett, Walsh and Kennedy. Cerra's loss is one down point.
Richmond average a goal a game better but give up 3 points a game more. Effectively these two have very similar outputs. With hardly much between them, it will come down to big moments.
Carlton don't end games that well. If you're the Tigers you just want to be in touch with 30 minutes to go. Plus without Weitering (and now Marchbank), the Blues will be asked far more in defence than they were last outing.
Despite Dustin Martin's absence, Richmond is pretty settled otherwise. That is in no way to decry his impact nor value. This stability might be enough to just win.
Being a cold winter evening, and possibly a bit of precipitation tossed in, scoring may not be at its highest. We'll take the unders and suggest the Tigers – just!
Match Selection: Richmond by 4 points
Suggested Bets: Under 156.5 points scored @ $1.90