3 minute read
In 2018, Liverpool went into the Champions League Final as underdogs.
A young side on new territory, their first Final in the competition since 2007, up against an experienced Real Madrid side with elite, big-game pedigree.
The Reds were beaten 3-1, but the fact this time around they are 19/40 with Betway as of 16th May to lift the trophy shows they have grown over the last 12 months.
Firstly, they have amassed 97 points in a Premier League season – the third-most any team has ever accumulated since the competition was re-branded in 1992.
The scenes after reaching the Semi-Finals, then the Final itself were celebratory - but perhaps not quite as jubilant as they had been the preceding year, highlighting the changing of the mentality within the club.
They have now felt the pressure, they know the drill and will be prepared for any shot that comes their way.
Tottenham Hotspur, by contrast, are in dreamland.
They have spent the five years of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign to date teetering on the edge of English football’s elite with reasonable success.
A midtable finish in 2014-15 was followed by two serious title challenges then two comfortable top four finishes, all alongside a stadium move that boosts their long-term prospects.
However, a game of this magnitude might feel almost alien to a fanbase that have not won a top division title since 1960-61 under Bill Nicholson and have not reached a European Cup Final ever.
Both teams are looking to win a first trophy under their respective managers - this would be a wonderful way to achieve glory.
Tottenham’s numbers
Tottenham’s Premier League performances have not been great, at least relative to their results.
They average 1.56 Expected Goals For (xGF) and 1.28 Against (xGA), giving them a Ratio (xGR) of 54.90% - only the seventh-best in the division, worse than Wolves and Leicester.
However, Spurs have a habit of raising their game for the Champions League – that is why they have knocked out Dortmund, Manchester City and Ajax to get to this point.
With or without Kane?
Harry Kane is a Tottenham icon: he has scored 164 goals for the club, he has looked deadly at times and has been a huge part of the club’s work over the last half-a-decade.
Although Kane’s goal record this season has not changed – 27 in all competitions for club and country is another terrific return by anyone’s standards – but it could be argued that Spurs’ best attacking performances in Europe have come without him in the XI.
Heung-Min Son has scored 11 goals in 18 starts when deployed as the central forward, a very respectable output considering that he brings a lot of other qualities to the table.
Son completes 30 passes per 90 minutes when used centrally, for Kane 20, Son completes 2.1 successful dribbles per 90, Kane 1.4; Son completes 1.3 key passes per 90, Kane 1.1.
That is not to in any way undermine Kane’s capabilities, because he is undoubtedly a top striker – and his passing range is excellent.
However, in very difficult games in Europe, it is important to have 11 players contributing to all phases of play and that means having a centre-forward with the mobility to run the channels and do a lot of work off the ball - if Kane has one weakness, it is that he is not
Eriksen’s inconsistency
Christian Eriksen is yet to sign a new contract, with one-year left on his current deal.
Daniel Levy is too shrewd a businessman to let a top technician walk out on a free next year, so unless talks accelerate very quickly it is plausible that Eriksen will leave in the summer.
All the uncertainty appears to have impacted the Dane’s performances, as well as perhaps an overreliance on him to take on the creative burden.
20 times this season, he has been deployed as a central midfielder, rather than an attacking midfielder – and we can expect he might be handed a slightly deeper, controlling role here.
The alternative to him next to Moussa Sissoko would be Victor Wanyama, who might not have the mobility to handle Liverpool’s press and Harry Winks, who can sometimes be slightly lightweight – suffice to say, Spurs need their Danish dynamo on form.
Liverpool’s belief
Liverpool’s 4-0 Semi-Final 2nd Leg victory over Barcelona, meaning a 4-3 win on aggregate, was the stuff of poetry and shows the belief Jurgen Klopp has cultivated at Anfield.
When the German got his players to stand in a line and fling their arms up in the air after a 2-2 draw with West Brom very early in his reign, it was externally ridiculed: but Klopp was actually highlighting the power supporters have to fire their team on and rescue points from well below-par performances.
Since then, the connection between team and fans has grown which has been a huge factor behind their Champions League success.
Domestic results dictate that Manchester City have the better team but Pep Guardiola is very consumed by the technical and tactical side of the job; he does not play to the fans to the same extent that Klopp does and that is perhaps where Liverpool have gained that extra 10% in huge, one-off games.
Firmino and Salah in?
Xherdan Shaqiri and Divock Origi fared superbly in the 2nd leg against Barcelona, when Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino were absent with concussion and groin injuries respectively.
Origi mastered two improvised finishes which he might not have been expecting – he tapped home following a goalkeeper spill and then fired into the far corner following an impromptu corner from Trent Alexander-Arnold – which shows he has the anticipation of a great footballer.
However, Liverpool’s progress over the last two seasons has been based squarely on the front trio of Salah, Firmino and Sadio Mane, so we can expect the former two to come back in.
The fact that a tireless goalscorer like Origi and a creative technician in Shaqiri could be on the bench is an indication of the depth of this Liverpool squad, superior to the 2008-09 and 2013-14 outfits which were more reliant on key individuals.
They’ve got Van Dijk
There was a time when Liverpool looked chaotic and disorganized in big games: this season was the year they fundamentally addressed those issues.
The Reds conceded on average 0.82 Goals Per Game against fellow ‘Big Six’ opposition in the Premier League this season and just 1GPG across all Champions League clashes.
The fundamental difference? Virgil Van Dijk having his first full season at Anfield has been a massive factor.
There’s only a handful of centre-backs in world football who possess pace and power as well as the intelligence to know how to use it – and the ball-playing qualities to go with it – and in that sense Liverpool have the best in class.
Additionally, summer recruit Alisson Becker has been invaluable: ever during the team’s best performances, the Brazilian has shown the capacity to pull off impressive, vital saves at key moments which have helped define the direction of the contest.
Verdict
Tottenham deserve great credit for getting to this stage and exciting times lie ahead in their new stadium – but this could be Liverpool’s night.