3 minute read
Timeform recap the 2017 Australian Guineas won by Hey Doc for trainer Tony McEvoy and jockey Luke Currie.
Much of the talk following the 2017 Australian Guineas won by Hey Doc has been focused on the track but the race itself should be of far more interest to punters.
The track was firm and fast, no doubt, and the times run on the day indicated that. Coincidentally the median Timeform value of the day's runners was 93 which matched the corresponding value from the Lightning meeting, so comparisons between the times are fairly straightforward, and they point to the track racing roughly five lengths faster on Guineas day.
Hey Doc's Guineas-winning time of 1:34.01 was the second fastest since the race became a mile contest in 2001 - Apache Cat was just 0.01 faster in 2006 - but his Timeform rating of 119 is below the winning average in that time, albeit only narrowly.
A rating of 119 is not a new peak for Hey Doc having also ran to a rating of 119 when third in the Caulfield Guineas back in the spring.
A genuinely run race resulted in a strong time figure for the race of 119, matching the form rating. A fast time is an obvious positive when assessing form but it can also be exposing. Given the tempo and the time it's hard to see where Hey Doc can make any major improvement but at 119 he's going to be competitive in most Winx-free races he contests.
Perhaps unfortunately for Hey Doc, though fortunately for racing fans, a duel with Winx is looking like the next assignment for Hey Doc with the George Ryder in two weeks time a perfect bridge between the Guineas and the Doncaster where handicap conditions should see Hey Doc well placed.
One record that the 2017 Australian Guineas can boast is that more horses ran to 110 or higher than in any edition in the race's relatively short history. A result of ideal conditions perhaps but it does suggest that the race will be a good form reference in the coming weeks.
The Derby winner from the spring, Prized Icon, ran a couple of lengths below his peak, at least in the view of Timeform, but his runner-up effort has him right on track to return to his peak rating of 120, and perhaps surpass it, in the weeks ahead.
Prized Icon has typically improved with racing, with his two Group 1 wins coming on seven-day turnarounds, and there are plenty of chances for that scenario to unfold again this autumn.
Divine Prophet and Seaburge, who had the narrow edge on Hey Doc in the Caulfield Guineas, had to settle for sixth and seventh at Flemington, but both where just second up and it's not quite time to send the jury out just yet. Further evidence at their next runs can be the key.
66-1 chance Snitzson and Oaks hopeful Harlow Gold were both able to work past the Caulfield Guineas 1-2 and return peak ratings. Harlow Gold is rated 110 which should have her at the forefront of ATC Oaks conversations, particularly given that she has already proven her wares over longer trips having run second in the VRC Oaks in the spring.
One who put a case forward to be a feature-race contender this autumn was Anaheim who ran the best 1200/1000/800 and 600 splits in the race.
Anaheim was rated 101p after winning at listed level back in the spring but is now rated 113? after his eye-catching Guineas fifth.
That's a big spike but his profile lends itself to that sort of leap and it he will get his chance to confirm himself at that level, or hopefully build on it, when he gets back out to 2000m and beyond.