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The shadow of former champion mare Black Caviar still looms over Winx, however the underlying theme at Randwick this afternoon might be a case of “anything you can do I can do better” as Winx returns to the track to commence her quest for a historic fourth Cox Plate later in the year.
Sitting on 25 consecutive race wins alongside unbeaten former champion mare Black Caviar, Winx will contest the Winx Stakes over 1400m formerly the Warwick Stakes, but now named in her honour.
The Winx Stakes was first run in 1923 and only Limerick (1927/28/29) and Kingston Town (1980/81/82) have managed three consecutive wins in the race, so should Winx prevail this afternoon she not only becomes the first mare to win the race three years running but also winning a group one race for a third time that has been named in her honour.And therein lies another similarity with Black Caviar who won a record third VRC Lightning Stakes in 2013, when also named in her honour.
A win in today’s race will see her surpass Black Caviar’s 25 race winning sequence, leaving just the Hungarian mare Kincsem’s winning streak of 54 wins from 54 races in the late 1800’s as the remaining benchmark – surely a record that will never be beaten in the modern era.Winx closed out the 2018 year with a record equalling third Cox Plate win – a record she shares with Kingston Town. Today she embarks on a program that leads her on a path to a fourth Cox Plate and with-it a shot at equine immortality.
The last time Winx ran over at 1400m, a distance short of her best, was in this race last year. After missing the start by several lengths, Winx gave punters heart failure storming home late, as she so often does, to beat stable mate Foxplay right on the line running to a Timeform rating of 118+ - several pounds below her master 134 rating.A scan of her record reveals she has four wins from seven runs at 1400m – all four wins coming in her 25-sequence winning streak. All four wins have been on good going which she will have this afternoon with her lowest Timeform rating of 118 coming from last year’s win and her best 128 when winning the 2017 Apollo Stakes.
While this afternoon’s field lacks genuine depth for group one performers at 1400m, Winx will still need to be on her game to win. A Timeform rating of low 120’s will probably get the job done but I have no doubt that boom Godolphin galloper Kementari will pose a threat if the race unfolds to suit.Hugh Bowman makes no secret of the fact that Winx is better with some “give” in the ground and her record certainly confirms this.
Winx has an average Timeform rating of 129.5 on rain affected ground and 122.3 on good ground – a difference in performance of just over two lengths.Looking at her average winning margins under similar conditions reveal 4.6 lengths versus 2.2 lengths, again a difference in performance of just over two lengths.
Timeform track variants also clearly show Winx’s peak performances to be on ground considered in the soft range.Mind you all that said, if she runs to her average Timeform rating on good ground then it will take a 126 or better performance from any of her male opponents to lower her colours - the closest horse in the field to her on ratings is Kementari, who has a master Timeform rating of 125 from his decisive win in the G1 Randwick Guineas.
Dealing with possible challengers, Kementari stands out as the horse to beat.In her past two victories in the Winx Stakes, Winx has never been confronted with a high rating strong 1400-1600m opponent – today she is.
This afternoon Kementari will be second up from a spell, coming off a narrow but unlucky defeat when resuming in the Missile Stakes over 1200m a fortnight back, just going down to Pierata after being slightly held up at a crucial stage at the top of the straight.He will take plenty of benefit from that effort as pre-parade ring observations clearly indicated plenty of improvement to come.
Kementari has met Winx just once previously in the G1 George Ryder Stakes over 1500m at WFA last Autumn – a race run on slow ground that suited Winx more than Kementari.On that occasion Winx defeated Kementari by a length and three-quarters but today is a different scenario again.
It is worth drawing on Kementari’s second up effort last preparation as a better guide for today’s race.Kementari was ridden to sit handy in the Hobartville Stakes over 1400m before dashing clear of a quality field in the closing stages to win comfortably, running to a 123p Timeform rating.
A similar performance today will certainly ensure Winx is kept very busy.Enjoy a great race.