Racing and Sports' race analyst Simon Dinopoulos takes a look at the 2014 Victoria Derby program from a statistical perspective.

The 2014 Victoria Derby

Maidens To Win The Derby

Not since Redding in 1992 has a maiden won the Derby - both Preferment and Atmosphere are attempting to achieve this feat on Saturday.

Prior to that, Fire Oak won the Derby as a maiden in 1990.

Derby Winners In Their First Preparation:

2006 - Efficient - Won four straight - Vase

2002 - Helenus - Won the Caulfield Guineas - Vase

1995 - Nothin' Leica Dane - Came through the Spring Champion - Norman Robinson

Hence Atmosphere, Preferment and San Padre are all aiming to join some elite company.

Key Trends

Last Start Winners: Nine of the past 20

• The last 20 Derby winners have all placed in the lead up

• 19 of the last 20 Derby winners have raced within 14 days of their Victoria Derby wins

Favourites:

• Only five favourites have won the Derby in the last 20 years, second favourites have also won five.

Barrier Draw

Since 1994 (Last 20 Years):

• 79 horses have jumped from outside barrier 10 out of a possible 278 - so they have made up 28% of the field composition

• Six of the past 20 Derby victors have jumped from outside barrier 10 - which is 30%

• So they've actually won slightly more than their share and it can be argued that the barrier draw has often been over factored

2010 - Lion Tamer (14)

2008 - Rebel Raider (15)

2005 - Benicio (11)

1998 - Arena (14)

1997 - Second Coming (12)

1996 - Portland Player (11)

Key Lead Ups:

Norman Robinson - 8/20

2013 - Polanski (1st)

2011 - Sangster (2nd)

2004 - Plastered (1st)

2001 - Amalfi (1st)

2000 - Hit The Roof (2nd)

1999 - Blackfriars (1st)

1998 - Arena (3rd)

1995 - Nothin' Leica Dane (1st)

Vase - 9/20

2010 - Lion Tamer (2nd)

2007 - Kibbutz (2nd)

2006 - Efficient (1st)

2005 - Benicio (3rd)

2003 - Elvstroem (2nd)

2002 - Helenus (1st)

1997 - Second Coming (3rd)

1996 - Portland Player (3rd)

1994 - Blevic (Won)

Geelong Classic - 1/20

2008 - Rebel Raider (3rd)

Spring Champion Stakes:

In recent years the Spring Champion Stakes has been a good guide to the Derby, regularly supplying placegetters:

2013 - Complacent and Thunder Fantasy

2010 - Retrieve

2009 - Viking Legend

2005 - Duelled

2004 - Savabeel

Monaco Consul remains the only horse in the last 20 years to win the Derby having contested the Spring Champion as his final lead up.

Expect this trend to change though, with the Spring Champion now run a week earlier.

Key Jockey - Kerrin McEvoy

Kerrin McEvoy is yet to win the VRC Derby but he does possess a pretty handy record nonetheless.

From nine attempts, he has finished second five times and finished third twice.

2013 - Complacent (2nd)

2011 - Induna (2nd)

2010 - Retrieve (3rd)

2006 - Teranaba (3rd)

2005 - Duelled (2nd)

2003 - Kempinsky (2nd)

2002 - Hydrometer (2nd)

Tip: Hampton Court (1)

With strong comparisons to Nothin' Leica Dane, this colt looks like he will run the 2500m out on his ear following his powerful finish last start.

A thick set horse, he has the credentials out of a high quality Spring Champion Stakes from which the third horse ran a fantastic race in the Cox Plate.

Appears a class above his rivals and can prove that on the weekend.

Race 4 - Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes

Formerly held in September between 1969–2005, the now Coolmore Stud Stakes was upgraded to Group 1 Status in 2006 and was moved to be held on first day of the VRC Spring Carnival (Derby Day).

In that time four of the past eight favourites have saluted - so it has been a happy hunting ground for punters.

Going back further in the last 20 years - 12 favourites have saluted.

Tip: Rich Enuff (1)

Rich Enuff Photo by Racing and Sports

Will obviously have to emulate the feats of Weekend Hussler if he is successful on the weekend, however his form to this point has been virtually faultless and appears the top elect on the bare form.

Race 6 - Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes

Six of the past 20 favourites have won the Mackinnon Stakes, with 11 of the past 20 coming through the Cox Plate — a further six have come through the Caulfield Cup.

In the last 20 years, Desert War remains the only horse to win the Mackinnon Stakes having contested the Epsom Handicap at its final lead up race — a feat He's Your Man is attempting to achieve on Saturday.

Damien Oliver has proven the king of the Mackinnon Stakes in recent years, having won four of the past 20 renewals, from just 16 rides.

Tip: Criterion (13)

Criterion Photo by RacingandSports

Apart from his unplaced effort in the Chelmsford Stakes, his form has been outstanding this time in. His performance in the Cox Plate was very good and despite finishing seventh, he was only beaten 1.5L.

He has placed in four of five attempts over 2000m, three of which have been at Group 1 company.

He is proven to handle the sting out of the ground and if the rain does arrive - he will have no concerns.

Obviously one of the most competitive races of the afternoon, but expect him to be in it for a long way.

Race 8 - Myer Classic - May's Dream (4)

Has really proven a happy stomping ground for the 4YOs in recent times having won 11 of the past 20 renewals (55%) while providing just over 40% of the participants.

Favourites also possess a solid record in the event, with eight of the past 20 saluting.

Tip: May's Dream (4)

May's Dream Photo by Racing and Sports

Progressive mare who has steadily improved with each start back this time in and appears set to peak stepping up to the mile.

Was arguably the run of the race behind Sweet Idea last start - when the tempo was clearly against.

Leading market hopes Catkins and Sweet Idea remain questionable at a mile, whereas May's Dream should only improve further.

Will need a bit of luck from the draw, but should prove hard to hold out.

Good luck and happy punting.