Historical Analysis of the Melbourne Cup
MELBOURNE CUP - G1 3200m
Australians don’t need much more than those three famous words (The Melbourne Cup) to get excited.
Considered the most watched 200 seconds in Australia each year, this two mile handicap horse race means much more than an equine event. Let’s check out the last few editions of the First Tuesday in November.
PROFILING THE RACE
o There have been five multiple winners - Archer (1861+62), Peter Pan (1932+34), Rain Lover (1968+69), Think Big (1974-75) & Makybe Diva (2003+04+05).
o Eleven horses have done the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double - Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurner’s Lane (1982), Let’s Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might and Power (1997) & Ethereal (2001).
o Of the last 22 winners, 12 have won their last start and 9 were defeated of which 4 were placed. Only Protectionist, Green Moon, Viewed, Efficient, Makybe Diva ’03 and Jezabeel, who was knocked down at Caulfield, were unplaced.
o Highest weight to win - Carbine 65.5kg in 1890.
o Shortest price to win - Phar Lap 11-8 on - 1930.
o Barriers have been of little importance with the 900m run to the first turn. Since 1988 Kingston Rule drew 1, Might and Power 2, Saintly 3, Media Puzzle 3 as well as Empire Rose 20, Doriemus 21, Rogan Josh 21, Brew 23.
o Leading Trainers - Bart Cummings (12), Etienne de Mestre (5), Lee Freedman (5).
o Leading Jockeys - Bobbie Lewis (4), Harry White (4).
o Winners by Age - 3yo x 23, 4yo x 44, 5yo x 46, 6yo x 29, 7yo x 10, 8yo+ x 2.
o By comparison with the Caulfield Cup, only eight 4yos have won at Flemington in the last 30 years.
o First Female Trainer to win - Sheila Laxon (Ethereal 2001) while Gai Waterhouse became the second in 2013.
| The closest Melbourne Cup in history won in 2011 by Dunaden |
o First Million Dollar race - What a Nuisance 1985.
o While horses like Might and Power made all the running and Delta Blues was on pace, most recent winners have been well and truly in the second half of the field.
o Mare victories are a conundrum. They have won 5 of the last 16 and 7 of the last 24 Cups but that isn’t the norm. Before Empire Rose in 1988 you had to go back to Light Fingers in 1965.
o Traditionally it has always been thought that the Caulfield Cup was the best lead up but only 2 of the last 9 have come through it to win.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 5yo (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.5kg
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - 14-1
o Breakdown of winners - 1 geldings, 1 mare & 8 entires
o Races that the winner ran in prior - Geelong Cup (2), Caulfield Cup (1), Cox Plate (4), Lexus Stks (1), Mackinnon Stks (1), Herbert Power (1)
RECENT WINNERS
Protectionist brained them in 2014 Photo by Racing and Sports
Jockey: Ryan Moore, Trainer: Andreas Wohler
Barrier: 10, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 3:17.71
Margin: 4L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 22
2nd: Red Cadeaux (G Mosse-57.0kg), 3rd: Who Shot Thebarman (G Boss-55.0kg)
Review: The Melbourne Cup yet again failed to disappoint both in terms of being an unbelievable event and also as a news item. Sadly it was both good and bad.
This German horse had won the Kergorlay which had produced Dunaden and Americain before him and like so many other successful Euros before him had had the lead up run here. His was in defeat in the Herbert Power.
With Cox Plate winning jockey Ryan Moore engaged, he was allowed to settle back in the field. With My Ambivalent roaring along in front it became a staying test. Coming to the turn he just came off the bit and needed a run. Moore thought about outside but went back in and it opened up.
He made up many lengths quickly and once the gap appeared he surged clear by four lengths in a very quick time. It gave Monsun the last two Cups.
The aftermath was not great with Admire Rakti collapsing in the stalls and Araldo taking fright at the flag, kicking a railing and breaking his leg. Neither survived the day.
2013 - FIORENTE 6h (Monsun x Desert Bloom) (6-1)
Jockey: Damien Oliver, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Barrier: 5, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 3:20.30
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 24
2nd: Red Cadeaux (G Mosse-56.5kg), 3rd: Mount Athos (C Williams-54.0kg)
Review: Damien Oliver and Gai Waterhouse teaming up to win the Melbourne Cup was news in of itself. Despite external matters, it was a focus onto the Cup and it was about their excellence and that of Fiorente.
In last year’s runner up they had a horse in great form. Fiorente took to Flemington using exactly the same preparation that Green Moon had followed in 2012. With the pace on early, it was some achievement given he was considered a distance risk.
Turning for home, Oliver had the entire ready to strike. He had to get past an old warrior in Red Cadeaux but at the furlong the 1.5kg became important. Gai finally had her crown as she led home the winner.
It meant the last two runners-up ran the quinella. Sadly Verema snapped a cannon bone early in the race and was put down.
| Might and Power was another close Cup winner in 1997 |
2012 - GREEN MOON 5h (Montjeu x Green Noon) (20-1)
Jockey: Brett Prebble, Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Barrier: 5, Weight: 53.5kg, Gross Time: 3:20.45
Margin: 1L, Track: Good, Starters: 24
2nd: Fiorente (J McDonald-53.5kg), 3rd: Jakkalberry (C O’Donoghue-55.5kg)
Review: It was a fascinating race for many reasons leading in. You had two previous winners, in fact the two previous quinellas. A firming track, many internationals and adding to that the dramas of the Oliver affair.
Like at Caulfield, Glencadam Gold led them out and Lights Of Heaven sat outside in a slowly run affair given they were running track records on the day. All the favs were back and struggling to make ground which was a trait on the program.
The winner tracked the stablemate through, second followed him and third him. Turn of foot was the key and gave Lloyd Williams his fourth win as an owner. In the end it was two Newcastle Cup winners who ran the crackers.
