3 minute read
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the $150,000 Newhaven Park South East Country Championships (1400m) at Moruya on Sunday.
1. Zouatica (Barbara Joseph, Paul and Matt Jones , Canberra): Big, bold front-running type who is already in the mix for the $3 million Big Dance after a runaway Moruya Cup win. He hasn't raced since then, two months ago. Not sure what to make of his trial recently, perhaps he was outsprinted over the 900m and it's always dangerous to put too much emphasis on mid-prep trials. He will roll forward and if they let him control he'll be very hard to run down.
2. Bon Frankie (Aaron Clarke, Braidwood): He's come back from about nine months off the scene in arguably career best form and that puts him in the mix at odds. Strong Highway winner at Rosehill beating Agirlsbestfriend, who was then enormous running second at Tuncurry to qualify for the Final, and he might have found the 100m drop against him at Canberra. Wouldn't surprise if he fills a placing as he's in great form.
3. Missile Leader (Keith Dryden, Canberra): Fifth run of the preparation and he comes back from a win under 62kg over a mile on his home track under two weeks ago. Is that an ideal set up? He'll get into the second half of the field and be running on strongly, he has a handy record so definitely not ruling him out of the chances. He will need a few breaks, though.
4. Rouge Lune (Natalie Jarvis, Moruya): Local who has built a nice record and won three from four on his home track. Started favourite and led all the way to win at Canberra a month ago and this sort of trip holds no fears as he ticked that box back in September. Barrier really hurts his cause but he has Zouatica drawn nearby so there's a chance he finds a tag across. Each-way claims.
5. In De Summertime (Keith Dryden, Canberra): A little hard to line her up given she was never in the hunt at big odds first-up at Randwick in a Benchmark 94. Her two starts prior were in Group 3 company so she's right back in class now. Now well is she going? Finds Tommy Berry to ride which is a plus and she has won at this track. If she produces her best she could be right there, to be fair she's been hit and miss as her record suggests so take on trust.
6. Associate (Danielle Seib, Goulburn): Always shown some talent and he's not to be underestimated despite there being some better credentialed rivals. Super effort first-up from an impossible position in Bon Frankie's Highway win when favourite, then far too good back to a BM58 on his home track up to a mile. Kept fresh and he can beat more home than beats him.
7. Atmospheric Rock (Danny Williams, Goulburn): Signalled readiness for his toughest test with a dominant Highway win at Randwick over 1200m then far from disgraced last week up to this trip when giving away a big start. He worked home well there to run fifth in what was a strong Highway and with a favourable barrier this time around he gets his chance to show his best form. More than capable of running over the top of them.
8. Bandi's Boy (Danny Williams, Goulburn): Probably the most talented horse in this race and he proved himself in top country company with his third in the Barn Dance back in November behind the likes of I've Bean Tryin', who ran third in last year's Country Championships Final, and Cavalier Charles. That's Kosciuszko form. Had a setback after his first-up win but returned last week under a big weight to show he's on track. The barrier could be a plus or a minus depending on how the race is run but he's adaptable and clearly the horse to beat.
9. Flying Impala (Mary Bray, Goulburn): Front-running gelding who is well and truly on the way up, meeting his toughest test to date. Maiden winner at Canberra a month ago then backed it up winning at Hawkesbury. That provincial form is a sign he's a bit above average. Is this all too soon for him? He'll go forward with the top weight and it'll be interesting to see how he reacts when the pressure is on.
10. Sir Ming (Danielle Seib, Goulburn): Somewhat unassuming gelding who has raced consistently through the summer and was an easy winner of the Preview on his home track at the end of January. Started $1.65 in his subsequent appearance and wasn't able to convert, narrowly beaten into second place. What's on his side is the soft draw, allowing him to do no work early in the first half. Then has his chance to prove he's up to it.
11. Invertational (Matthew Kelley, Canberra): Ran sixth in this race last year and midfield in the Southern Wild Card but on the evidence of her first-up run she may not quite be going as well. Didn't fail at Canberra but didn't threaten either so she's hard to be too keen about. On the form leading into last year's race she'd be a lot shorter in betting.
12. Offspring (Keith Dryden , Canberra): The only horse tackling this race first-up and given she's proving herself well adept at the mile it'd be by design to keep her fresh. No public trials to get a look at and yet to win first-up, plus not sure she's quite up to the level of some of her main rivals. Place chances best.
13. Dorami (Norm Gardner, Canberra): Model of consistency and an each-way quote about right with the form around her through Rouge Lune and Bon Frankie who she split at Canberra a month ago. Beaten favourite there back to 1200m on February 23 but the biggest issue is the wide gate. Again there is speed drawn out there with her so she may be able to slot in somewhere. Still preferring the place with her.
14. Miss Ghent (Norm Gardner, Canberra): Only 10 starts to this filly's name and she's been competitive in most of them for two wins and three placings. Even effort at Canberra in the Guineas Preview at this trip and does get a nice 6kg drop in her favour. While she is racing well, inclined to think she's only an outside chance.
15E. Eight Of A Kind (Danielle Seib, Goulburn): Won three from six, two at 1000m and one at 1200m, and has to jump sharply in distance and class on what was a sound win fresh at the short course. Aside from the extreme outside barrier, not sure she's had the right foundation for a race of this nature.
16E. Destructive Diva (Norm Gardner, Canberra): No match for Sir Ming two starts back at Goulburn and had her chance in the Guineas Preview at Canberra. She did have a big weight there and ran on okay but this is no easier and she'd be better placed somewhere else.
17E. Stormy Witness (Danny Williams ): Surprise Highway winner back in September at this trip when fresh, two runs from another break have been below par and she didn't make a whole lot of impact in her latest Highway. Wide gate is problematic for her too. She has the ability and is probably better placed elsewhere on the card.
18E. Discreet Miss (Michelle Ritchie, Nowra): One run back on a heavy track and she disappointed considering her place in the market there. Highway form from last prep around Tribeca Star reads well and gate one would help but she's yet to win past 1200m and this is an ask.
19E. Just Go Bang (Nick Olive, Queanbeyan): Tackles this, if he gets a run, first-up since September and hasn't been competitive enough in Highway company as yet to be recommending him in a Championships race. He did win fresh last prep but couldn't give a push.
20E. Gundy Guy (Todd Smart ,Canberra): He's got some X-Factor about him from two very impressive wins from as many starts this time in down at Wagga. It's a shame this race has come up a bit quick for him as if he'd had time for another start and won again he'd be in the field as a very interesting runner. If he somehow sneaks in he'd be worth including in the exotics, as he's all upside.
SPEED MAP: You'd imagine they won't just let Zouatica cross and dictate especially with the likes of Flying Impala and Rouge Lune drawn alongside with a natural front-running pattern too. If they do let him control, game over. Sir Ming and Dorami have good speed too. Interesting to see where Bandi's Boy lands given he's drawn around the leading few, likely looks to find a back around midfield or a little better. Potential for good speed and they should all get their chance.
SELECTIONS:
8 BANDI'S BOY
7 Atmospheric Rock
1 Zouatica
6 Associate
