3 minute read

Racing And Sports form analyst Trent Crebbin provides his race-by-race Flemington preview, thanks to tab.com.au.

We're back at headquarters this Saturday with an intriguing card at Flemington. The day is headlined by the Listed Andrew Ramsden, which grants the winner ballot-free exemption into the Melbourne Cup, so expect a fierce contest for that golden ticket.

We also have the Listed Straight Six over 1200m which looks incredibly open, and we also see the start of the Winter Championships Series, which will run until finals day in July. There looks plenty of value to be had, including a $9 best bet, so read on for our preview of the full ten race card, thanks to tab.com.au.

RACE 1 - 11:35am: Sir Eugene Gorman Handicap (1400m)

Snack Bar (1) is a progressive type who hasn't been out of the quinella in four starts to date, winning two, including last start over this trip at Caulfield. Posted a career best run there and should take beating again. La Pleine Lune (2) is a fascinating runner. He won by 9 lengths on debut at Warrnambool on a day where leading was a huge advantage. Won't have an issue with the trip but that performance is tricky to line up. Narbold (3) has had two runs to date for two minor placings, good in the Anzac Stakes here last start. Will be hard to hold out. War Council (4) was quite good in the Showdown over 1200m last time and can get into the finish at this trip. Lario (8) was narrowly beaten at odds-on before a spell and looks to have talent.

Tip: Backing Snack Bar at $5 with tab.com.au

RACE 2 - 12:00pm: Murray Cox Handicap Bm84 (1800m)

Mirzann (11) made his Australian debut at Caulfield and hit the line well for second over 1700m. Gets a bigger field and track here along with an extra 100m which will aid his cause. He drops 6.5kg in weight and draws well with D Lane taking the ride. Cadmus (5) beat Mirzann at Caulfield last time. He probably doesn't have the upside but is hard to knock in the form he's in. Euphoric (6) drops in class having finished close up in a slowly run race over 2000m last start. This trip should be perfect for him. Asgoodassobergets (4) ran quite well first up at Mornington and will strip fitter. Can figure. Foujita San (2) was just fair first up but did run well second up last time in and can improve quickly.

Tip: Leaning to Mirzann at $3.20 with tab.com.au

RACE 3 - 12:30pm: Inside Headquarters Bm78 (1200m)

Niance (7) won two in a row impressively prior to last start here over 1100m when missing the start and being beaten 1.4 lengths as the $1.40 favourite. Happy to overlook that run and back out to 1200m should suit nicely. Paradise City (10) has won 3/5 starts to date, beating a handy one first up at Sandown-Lakeside before an even effort at Group 2 level in Adelaide. Far better suited here and will take catching. WAKANJEJA (8) hit the line nicely first-up over 1100m at Caulfield and typically goes well second-up. Rates a strong winning chance. Fearless Writer (5) was good here first up in a similar race over 1100m and won't need to improve much to go a couple better. Moor Mumm (9) is flying and will take beating again.

Tip: Niance to bounce back at $2.90 with tab.com.au

RACE 4 - 1:05pm: K.A Morrison Handicap (1400m)

The Shaper (4) is a progressive type who beat a highly regarded type in Angland at Caulfield when last seen over this trip. Bigger field here and more depth but he's got the ratings to take this out as well. Modown (2) continues to race well since a win at Pakenham, placing at his past two in good races. He's got a very good record over this trip and draws nicely here with Lane aboard. Gallant Prince (9) won well at Pakenham first up before just missing in a handy midweek race last time out. Should be fitter for that and can measure up. Scully (3) wasn't bad in the G2 Tobin Bronze Stakes last start at Morphettville and drops a fair way in class for this. Riproar (7) was good behind The Shaper last time and is in the mix.

Tip: Sticking with The Shaper at $7 with tab.com.au

RACE 5 - 1:40pm: Stud and Stable Staff Awards Bm70 (1100m)

White Bear (13) hasn't quite gone on with things off a dominant win first up but was good last start at Caulfield over 1200m, sticking on well behind a late swooper. Can't see the drop to 1100m being an issue and he should take catching. Artistic Genius (4) has won two of his past three, winning easily over 1000m at Cranbourne last time out. Up in grade here but is hard-fit and should be in the finish. Rich Lover (8) proved too strong when winning first-up over 1200m at Cranbourne and should only be fitter. Can win again. Losesomewinmore (10) has built a handy record in his short career and comes over from Adelaide with competitive ratings. Don't Hope Do (9) ran in some good races in his maiden campaign and can figure here.

Tip: White Bear on top at $5.50 with tab.com.au

RACE 6 - 2:15pm: Sir Henry Bolte Handicap (2000m)

Heed The Omens (4) beat Saban three back at Sandown before losing the rider at Caulfield Heath. He was strong to the line over 1600m at Flemington last time out and looks suited getting to 2000m now. Saban (10) ran well inn the Port Adelaide Guineas two back with that form holding up well in the SA Derby. He got his maiden out the way over 2025m at Cranbourne last time and should prove hard to beat. Aztec State (1) was a dogged winner out to this trip at Caulfield last time out when covering ground. Drawn wide again with the big weight will make it tough. Bon Mistress (12) wasn't bad in the Australasian Oaks last start when beaten three lengths. Must have some claims off that. Cotton Tree (6) next best.

Tip: Backing Heed The Omens at $4.20 & Saban at $9 with tab.com.au

RACE 7 - 2:50pm: Listed Hilton Nicholas Straight Six (1200m)

Open race. Who Dares (16) won nicely first-up at Caulfield over this trip in a Vobis Gold Sprint, beating a subsequent Listed winner. He got over a bit more ground last time in but may just be best kept to this trip and drawn wider on the minimum he should run well. Steparty (6) is the big watch. He was beaten at $2.10 at his only run last time in when seemingly having every chance but has trialled well and brings the right 3yo form into this. Joyful Fortune (1) is off a long spell but was last seen winning a Century Stakes here beating the speedy Zoustyle. 1200m off such a long break might make it tough. Hard To Say (3) won well enough in Sydney last time and should be around the mark. It'Sourtime (4) likes it here and should go well.

Tip: Who Dares at $9 with tab.com.au

RACE 8 - 3:30pm: Listed Lexus Andrew Ramsden (2800m)

The Map (12) looks the one to beat. Narrowly denied in the Adelaide Cup as favourite two starts back, she raced away off a slow tempo to win last start at Morphettville and should only be fitter for that. Loses nothing with D Lane taking the ride from an inside gate. Excelleration (3) just edged The Map out in the Adelaide Cup but hasn't run since. He has trialled well over 1400m and looks a solid value hope. Lionel (9) worked home well at Mornington at his Australian debut and will relish the 2800m here. He's a listed winner in the UK who will take some beating. Strawberry Rock (5) continues to race well and should be thereabouts, similar story Mostly Cloudy (6) who comes back from the Sydney Cup.

Tip: Backing The Map at $2.80 & Excelleration at $10 with tab.com.au

RACE 9 - 4:10pm: L.V Lachal Handicap Bm100 (1600m)

Galeron (6) might be a bit of value here. His first-up run over this track and distance was very good when beaten narrowly by a fit Arran Bay. He was well fancied to turn the tables at Mornington over 2000m last time and was a bit disappointing, but back to the expanses of Flemington should suit. Green Fly(15) was a narrow winner over 1400m at Warrnambool last time out and gets in well with 53kg here. His 1600m form doesn't read well at all, especially given he's by Frankel but he's got the talent. Dashing (11) repaid those who stuck fat last start when winning in this grade at Caulfield. He'll be hard to get past again. El Soleado (2) is racing in great heart and should be in the finish again. Maktoob (9) is up to these.

Tip: Backing Galeron at $9 with tab.com.au

RACE 10 - 4:43pm: Trevor Clarke Handicap (1100m)

Icarus (10) wasn't particularly fancied on debut at Sandown-Lakeside but won very well from back in the field with some strong late splits to score by 1.75 lengths. This is obviously much harder but he looks smart. Unconquerable (11) resumes having won well enough on debut at Caulfield as an odds-on favourite. In the right stable and has plenty of upside. Shesallshenanigans (1) hasn't won this time in but has been good in the right races. Gets a handy 3kg claim and rates highly. Harry Got Styles (12) won well on debut and was good at Bendigo behind a smart filly who has won again since. Don't underestimate. Pondalowie (7) is in the mix.

Tip: Specking Icarus at $5 & Harry Got Styles at $10 with tab.com.au

FLEMINGTON BEST BETS

Bet of the day: Race 9 #6 Galeron at $9 with tab.com.au*
Also backing: Race 7 #16 Who Dares at $9 with tab.com.au*

*All odds correct at 12:30pm, 16/5/24