3 minute read
Racing And Sports review the ratings from key races on Saturday and measure how they stack up ahead of the Spring.
Vain v Rosebud
These new season three-year-old races are always fascinating- seeing which horses have matured and 'taken that next step', made doubly interesting given the Racing And Sports team think some talented juveniles must have avoided the wet weather last Autumn.
A couple of those types won the male three-year-old features in Melbourne and Sydney on Saturday, with Giga Kick winning his third race from as many starts after a dominant debut back in February which rated 95 with Timeform.
He blew the cobwebs out with a 96 at Flemington first up before running down the speedy Alpha One at Caulfield and posting a rating of 103. The last six winners of the Group 3 Vain Stakes (1100m) are as follows:
Ingratiating 110+
Our Playboy 101+
Bivouac 119+
Tony Nicconi 105
Jukebox 103
Russian Revolution 104p
Giga Kick, so far, is right down the bottom of the crop. For comparison, Jukebox went on to run second in the Danehill and Blue Sapphire before pulling up lame when 14th in Merchant Navy's Coolmore win. He would never win another race.
Tony Nicconi didn't fare much better. 12th in the McNeil Stakes and third in the Blue Sapphire to Written By, his only other win came narrowly in a January Bm84 over Vainstream and Causeway Girl.
They say all you can do is win, and to an extent that's true- I'm sure Clayton Douglas and Giga Kick's owners are rightfully very excited, but he'll need to (and can) keep improving to be a player in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and head down the dreaded Jukebox avenue.
Over at Rosehill, the Listed Rosebud Stakes (1100m) is nearly a direct comparison without the breeder's tag of group status.
The rails bias at Rosehill was evident early on with 8/10 winners rails in run and seven of those eight settling in the first four. Zoukerino won the race after landing in the box seat from barrier three whereas a horse like Spacewalk was off-midfield and widest in the straight.
Zoukerino backed up a dominant maiden win on heavy ground to capitalise narrowly on Spacewalk seemingly throwing the race away after hitting the front and clocking off early. Other than having to squeeze through a gap at the 150m mark, it's fair to say Zoukerino had every favour, and to top it off, past winners (see below) certainly leave his rating of 100 with a bit to be desired:
Paulele 114+
Anders 114+
Dawn Passage 110+
Sandbar 111
Menari 120+
Those three-year-olds had mixed careers. Menari, clearly the best of them, couldn't match 4x Group 1 Trapeze Artist in the Group 1 Golden Rose before succumbing to injury, Paulele has developed into a solid B grade WFA sprinter and Dawn Passage still bobs up in the placings of $1 million pop up races. Sandbar only won once more in benchmark grade after a solid fourth in The Autumn Sun's Golden Rose win.
It spells caution for the Rosebud, and by extension Zoukerino, this year. We may have been treated to some top shelf three-year-olds in recent years and going off history, we only need an above average one to put a dent in this form.
How Uncommon is James?
Plenty of doom and gloom about the three-year-olds so we'll end on a more positive note as Uncommon James notched up his fifth win from six starts and his second listed race at his Melbourne debut, taking out the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield.
He showed an impressive turn of foot to win well and whilst it may not have been the strongest placings behind him, the win earned him a peak figure of 112 with Timeform, which stacks up quite well against recent winners:
Pintoff 105 (10th start)
Viridine 115 (30th start)
Begood Toya Mother 108 (11th start)
Osborne Bulls 115 (11th start)
Vega Magic 122+ (16th start)
Voodoo Lad 103p (14th start)
Begood Toya Mother would go on to win the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clark Stakes two starts later, Osborne Bulls was a 5x (6 if you want to include The Everest for perspective) Group 1 placed horse rated 123 and even Voodoo Lad went on to win a Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes.
Uncommon James after just six starts holds his own against most of those horses and has plenty more to come. In my opinion, it's not unrealistic to be on the phone to Everest slot holders. Not saying he has any chance whatsoever of beating a firing Nature Strip, but given Embracer rated 113 going into last year's race, Dollar For Dollar (2020) went in at 112 and Haut Brion Her (2020) was coming off ratings of 111 and 99 heading in, why wouldn't you aim up in a thin year?
