3 minute read
The first three weeks of the season have thrown up upset results and set alarm bells for some big-name clubs. Nothing unusual about that; the first six weeks are always the hardest to predict and betting is risky business.
So, what should we read into the table after three weeks? Well, for Liverpool supporters the news isn't good.
The last time the eventual champions took the title after failing to win in their opening three matches was Manchester Utd in 07/08. In fact, in the last 13 seasons the eventual champions have won at least two of their opening three games 12 times. Using that statistic as a barometer, this year's winner will come from Arsenal, Man City, Leeds, Spurs or Brighton!
At the other end of the scale, having 0 points after three games (West Ham) isn't the end of the world. The Hammers have been there twice in recent times and survived comfortably; in 17/18 they climbed to 13th and the following season to 10th.
On to week four and once again we'll tread warily until things settle down.
SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER UTD: Saturday 27 August at 9.30pm
In 21/22 Southampton surrendered more points from winning positions than any other team, and after giving up a 1-0 lead at Spurs on opening day the trend looked set to continue.
But the Saints have turned things around in the last two games, coming from two behind to snatch a draw against Leeds then scoring twice in the second half to grab a big away win at Leicester.
We suspected Man U would react to their embarrassment at Brentford but a win against a depleted Liverpool was a bit of a surprise. Football is a simple game and often all it takes is increased energy levels to turn things around. Varane and Martinez led the way in defence, and Malacia did a tremendous job keeping Salah quiet for most of the game. Have they turned the corner? No, bit things look brighter than this time last week and the addition of Casemiro from Real is significant.
Both fixtures in 21/22 ended 1-1. The market has over-reacted to the Man U win and installed them as warm favourites at 1.75. This looks a lot tighter than that, but the Saints are unreliable. Sit this one out.
BRENTFORD v EVERTON: Sunday 28 August 12.00am
The Everton/Forest game at Goodison last weekend had a real Championship feel about it. End-to-end stuff, neither side could hold the ball for more than five passes, and in the end a late equaliser for the home side produced the right result.
Brentford was denied a good draw at Fulham by a quality Mitrovic header at the death. After coming from two down and having a third goal disallowed by an offside bootlace by VAR, they should feel a little hard done by.
The home side certainly brings the better form lines to this game. Everton turned in another ordinary performance in the EFL Cup midweek, limping to a 1-0 against League One Fleetwood Town.
Brentford won both encounters last season by a single goal. At 2.00 they look a nice bet to continue their good start to the campaign and firmly settle in the top half of the table.
Bet: Brentford to win @ 2.00
BRIGHTON v LEEDS: Sunday 28 August 12.00am
Only die-hard supporters of these teams would have predicted they would be unbeaten and in the top five after three games. Both have a big scalp to their name and are playing with confidence, albeit in different styles.
Brighton is about structure, possession, and sharpness in attack when they finally pull the trigger. Leeds is a high tempo, high pressure approach that is a hangover from the Bielsa days but developing nicely under Marsch. I had them in my list of relegation candidates and while three games hardly make a season they are looking good and I'll be glad to be proved wrong; Leeds are good for the Premier League.
Both fixtures were draws last year, scoreless at Brighton. The Seagulls are on an eight-match unbeaten run since April and I fancy that they can stifle Leeds at home. The 1.87 on offer, however, isn't quite generous enough to get me interested.
CHELSEA v LEICESTER: Sunday 28 August 12.00am
What to make of Chelsea? Unimpressive in defeating a poor Everton outfit on opening day, desperately unlucky not to take all three points against Spurs at the Bridge at their next outing, then thoroughly outplayed by Leeds last weekend.
I maintain that lacking a true #9 is their problem. Sterling doesn't fit the mould, and the goals have dried up for Havertz. Indeed, their three goals this season have come from wing-backs Koulibaly and James, and from the penalty spot. I'd be surprised if Ziyech doesn't get more game time in this.
Leicester is in dire trouble, particularly if Maddison and Tofana leave as anticipated. Their defence has been poor which has resulted in leads against Brentford and Southampton being forfeited. Both goals at Arsenal were countered within two minutes.
Although the corresponding game last season ended 1-1, Chelsea at 1.40 the win is justifiable, but I won't be betting.
LIVERPOOL v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 28 August 12.00am.
I'll put the hand up and say I tipped Liverpool to take the title this season. While it hasn't slipped out of their grasp yet, the early signs are not good.
Physicality is the way to get at the Reds. Fulham and Palace both bothered the life out of them in the midfield, forcing stacks of errors and wayward passes. Man U, led by a menacing Varane, capitalised on the more lenient body-contact interpretations this season and bullied Klopp's team at Old Trafford. Sit back and they will simply pass and dribble their way through most defences.
Bournemouth has had a torrid return to the EPL with consecutive games against City, Arsenal and now Liverpool. They haven't landed a glove in their last two and, if Liverpool shows up here, another 3 or 4 goal defeat looks on the cards.
This is a game Liverpool must not only win but win convincingly to match the efforts of City and Arsenal recently. At little better than bank interest odds it is a no-bet game.
MANCHESTER CITY v CRYSTAL PALACE: Sunday 28 August 12.00am.
City showed champions' qualities to come from two behind at Newcastle and force a draw last weekend. The Magpies, mainly through the brilliant Saint Maximan, cut through the visitors relentlessly and proved they can be vulnerable, particularly early in the season.
Palace is such a different side now under Vieira. Eze has clicked since a poor opening game against Arsenal and his combination with the free-scoring Zaha is potent. Defensively they look tight with Guehi and Andersen aggressive and efficient.
The Eagles defeated City 2-0 at the Etihad last October in one of the upsets of the year. Laporte's send-off was a mitigating factor, but the score was 1-0 at the time.
Since that game City has won 13 and drawn one of their 15 home matches, scoring an incredible 50 goals along the way. It should be a win to the home side, but 1.17 isn't for me.
ARSENAL v FULHAM: Sunday 28 August 2.30am.
It is a long while since this London derby has attracted such interest. Both sides go in undefeated and in the process, they have between them netted 14 goals.
To be fair, although they look the goods, Arsenal has been blessed by the fixture fairy. Manchester Utd is the only top-six side from last season that they meet in the opening eight rounds. However, it has been the manner of their wins that excites long-suffering Gunners fans. Jesus is an early candidate for buy of the year, while Saliba and Zinchenko add quality defensively and on the counter. They look even stronger now with Smith-Rowe's return.
Fulham are hardly the surprise packet. They play a fearless brand of football as Liverpool will attest and this match-up won't phase them. If they can press hard when Arsenal has the ball then release Mitrovic they can give the home team some headaches.
History is against the Cottagers. In 29 EPL clashes, Arsenal has won 20 with six draws. Alarmingly, Fulham has not won at Highbury/Emirates post WW2. Ergo 1.30 Arsenal is on offer, but I can't jump in at that price.
ASTON VILLA v WEST HAM: Sunday 28 August 11.00pm.
Both claret and blue sides have started poorly.
Villa's win came at home against a meek Everton, book-ended by two-goal defeats away to Bournemouth and Palace. West Ham are yet to bother the scorer in three games, although each match had a 'banana skin' feel: City first up, away to Forest at their first home EPL fixture for 23 years, then home to Brighton who they never beat.
It's time for Moyes to bite the bullet. The Hammers have recruited well and need the big signings on the pitch this weekend to replace the likes of Cresswell and Fornals who have offered little this season. Rice and Bowen have also been sub-par and in a World Cup year must surely enliven themselves.
Villa has only won three of their last 14 EPL games and clean sheets are rare. West Ham thumped the home side here 4-1 last year and I expect today marks the day that the Hammers launch their season. Across the park they look a better side on paper and as outsiders here look good value.
Bet: West Ham to win @ 3.20.
WOLVES v NEWCASTLE: Sunday 28 August 11.00pm.
This is a tough one. The little piece of Portugal in the midlands, aka Wolverhampton Wanderers, dominated and bothered Spurs for large portions of their match away last weekend but that issue of no firepower reared its ugly head again.
Wolves are well organised in defence and transition well, but when the ball gets in the opposition box it all peters out. A draw with Fulham and single goal losses to Leeds and Tottenham is not disastrous form – none of their opponents have been beaten yet and nor has today's rival.
Newcastle was outstanding against City, carving them up at will at times but just lacking the stoic defence to protect a two-goal advantage. Wolves offer a similar away challenge as Brighton did in round two; a strong defensive unit that will prove difficult to breach.
This went the way of the home team 2-1 last season, although the match was early in the season when the Magpies were in the doldrums. The reverse fixture went 1-0 to Newcastle. Prior to last season, the pair had played five consecutive 1-1 draws.
The betting says this is the tightest match of the round and it is hard to argue. Logic dictates that a draw is the way to go.
Bet: Draw @ 3.20
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v TOTTENHAM: Monday 29 August 1.30am.
Forest has made a fine return to the big time, with four points after three games a strong return. They will rely on the City Ground being their fortress. However, Tottenham will prove a much tougher opponent than an out-of-form West Ham did here a fortnight ago.
Composure under pressure is the big problem Forest face – they turned the ball over far too easily at Everton last week and they were lucky their opponents kindly gave it back to them shortly after. A matter of 15 new faces is something manager Cooper is wrestling with. If he can get them to gel and they are in a decent position before the World Cup break, they can survive.
Tottenham get about 6/10 from me so far. Southampton were poor against them in the opening game but since then they have been more than matched by Chelsea and Wolves, both of whom were a bit stiff not to get more points from their respective matches.
I think Son is the key. He has been below his best so far but if he clicks which I expect must happen soon, Spurs could put a few past Dean Henderson in this one.
Bet: Heung-min Son to score anytime @ 2.15
Bet: Tottenham to lead at halftime and fulltime @ 2.25
