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Blow the whistle! Because the A-League Analyst is providing tips on the best matches across each fixture from Oceania’s premier men’s soccer league.

ADELAIDE V MACARTHUR

This looks like a game that will have a winner. In the past seven meetings Head to Head none of them ended in a draw with Adelaide winning three and Macarthur four. The most recent meeting was a belter with a four goal first half (2-2) and Macarthur running out 4-3 winners.

As is the usual with the A League, games are feasts or famine as far as goals go. The seven scores between the sides were (Adelaide first) 3-4, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-4, 3-1 and 0-4. So we see in three of the seven games, Macarthur have put four past their opponents. In the seven meetings, both teams scored just three times. Six of the games had a first half goal and five of them had a second half goal. In all seven meetings, the home side has won. So Adelaide have a 100% home record against Macarthur, keeping two clean sheets in three games.

Four of the seven went Over 2.5 and four went Over 3.5 goals so it seems if we get three, we are likely to get four. Both teams have conceded 19 goals in 11 league games this season and the hosts have outscored the visitors 22-18 in that period.

The current ladder position see Adelaide in 8th place (4-2-5) and Macarthur in fifth (4-4-3). Looking at the Adelaide home form this season, we can certainly expect goals. Their results have been 2-2, 3-1, 0-2, 1-5, 6-0 and 3-0. They have won just one of their past four after a very bright start to the season with two wins and two clean sheets. They are now conceding plenty.

As for Macarthur, their results also point to goals. Away results of 1-3, 2-3, 2-0, 3-3 and 2-1 saw their season start well with two wins and a draw away from home, but the wheels have come off in their past two games conceding six goals and scoring three. They will certainly see this as a chance to get back to winning ways and I don't see them parking the bus for a draw here.

With Adelaide winning just one of their past six games, I can't confidently back them to win this one. However, three of their four wins in the A-League this season have come at home and they will be hopeful of taking three points. They will have to make changes in the squad from their last game against Wellington, as Ben Warland is suspended and Bernardo has been left out altogether. Joe Gauci is on international duty with the Socceroos, so James Delianov may start.

Looking at all 11 matches for Adelaide this season, 9/11 had a first half goal, 10/11 had a second half goal, 7/11 went Over 2.5 and 6/11 went Over 3.5 goals. Both teams scored in six and interestingly only two of the past five. In the three games with just one side scoring, it was Adelaide that drew the blank.

In the 11 Macarthur games 10 went Over 1.5, 6/11 went Over 2.5 and 4/11 went Over 3.5 goals.

With both sides inconsistent, but scoring and conceding plenty, we need to play the goals markets here. That allows us to cheer for both sides and not be bothered about who scores.

On Betfair, the Over 2.5 looks quite short at $1.49 and the Over 3.5 at $2.18 looks really low considering Adelaide have not scored in three of the past five.

I started out looking to back goals, but looking at all the evidence I think we get better value taking them on. I think if you don't want to lay the draw, Macarthur are far better value at $4.40 than Adelaide are at $1.83.

Betting Strategy

LAY: Over 3.5 goals (WIN) for 2 units at or below $2.20 

LAY: Draw (WIN) for 1 unit at or below $4.50 

BACK: Macarthur (WIN) for 1 unit at or above $4.20 

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