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SONY OPEN: HAWAII

I missed the deadline for publishing last week so I'll start with a belated happy new year and a welcome back to the golf punting faithful after the holiday break. Last year started with a bang but ended with a whimper, however the final 2023 return was right in line with the long-run average returns. Golf is perhaps the most brutal of sports to bet on – with massive field sizes comes huge variance and the boom/bust nature of returns would be too much for most punters.

That's where exchange betting steps in – if you don't have the risk tolerance there's absolutely no reason to be holding a position through to the final hole, or even the final day! The bulk of my personal trading is done before a ball has even been hit. To highlight how profitable a back to lay strategy can be, this year I'll be tallying a P&L for both straight wins as well as trading out the tips at the end of the first, second and third days.

Onto this week's tournament and the Tour is staying down in Hawaii, a welcome piece of scheduling for players as the mainland is being battered by heavy snow and rain. The Wai-'alae Country Club sits on the island of O'ahu and is just east of Honoulu. While the playing conditions should be dry, O'ahu has been hit by torrential rain over the last 24 hours so course conditions are likely to be soft. There's also a fair bit of wind forecast, particularly for the PM wave of the opening day.

The course itself is very short, measuring a hair over 7,000 yards and played as a par-70. The scoring here is usually fairly easy, with the par-5s especially absolutely ripe for the picking – the course ranks in the top 5 on Tour for scoring on the long holes. Penalty for missed fairways is also at the lower end despite fairways being relatively tight. The shape of holes means there's little chance to overpower this track and even the shortest of hitters won't be giving anything away to the field.

COURSE HISTORY AND FIT

This track ranks second to Augusta in terms of predictive power of previous performances and as a result there's a few names receiving healthy boosts to their underlying model ratings. Corey Conners, Zac Balir and Keith Mitchell have all excelled here across five appearances, having played over a stroke better than model expectation.

However it's last week's winner Chris Kirk who will be taking in one of the biggest course history bumps in recent memory as his outperformance over a whopping 44 rounds here sees him take in an almost 0.4 stroke bump.

Other notables include Stewart Cink, Chez Reavie and Ben Martin in what will be a big week for course specific overlays.

As mentioned above, this is a week the short knockers should excel as they won't be losing any strokes due to their lack of distance. Kevin Kisner will exit the commentary box to suit up this week and should take a shine to this track while other underpowered players like Hunter Larson, David Lingmerth and Brandt Snedeker should also enjoy the reduced distance pressure.

On the other end of the scale, young gun Ludvig Aberg and veteran Benny An will need to find other avenues to gain strokes here and take almost a third of a stroke hit to their ratings due to the lack of length.

BETTING MARKETS

With most of the big names from last week sitting this one out, betting volumes have been somewhat subdued. Aberg is a cool favourite, with his low 20s price indicative of the wide open nature of this event. He's drifted in early trading after starting much lower, likely due to his weak performance last week. It's second favourite Brian Harman who has been attracting the most interest and he's out-traded the Swede almost two-to-one.

Trading has been spread fairly evenly over the rest of the market and without a clear favourite chewing up volume it should be easy to get matched for a good sized wager across most of the top of the board.

RUSSELL HENLEY

While he didn't get a call out in the history and fit section above, he could've been an honourable mention – while his accuracy won't help him a huge amount here his strong around the green play and lack of distance make him a very solid fit. Had a mare last week, particularly on approach but with conditions likely to be very soft he shouldn't have any troubles this week.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Henley for the win for 0.6 units at $25+. 

AARON RAI

The Englishmen has a very similar strength profile to Henley and while he hasn't played since November, he was in career best form at that point. Ridiculous price for a guy primed for a breakout year.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Rai for the win for 0.2 units at $90+. 

GARY WOODLAND

His 2019 US Open victory will almost certainly be his one and only Major but there's still enough left in the veteran's tank to jag a victory in one of these softer field events. He's coming off a long layoff and isn't the best course fit but this is a pure value play.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Woodland for the win for 0.1 units at $180+. 

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