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FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN 2024

Last Week's Wrap

Well it happened again – this time the winner was even longer, with Nick Dunlap's win as an amateur the first since 1991. Column tips Cantlay and Michael Kim were right amongst it and a profitable trade could've been made at the end of any of the opening three rounds. Kim in particular traded down in the low teens from a starting price of $250+ and validated the wider net cast after backing the top two on the board.

Scheffler continues to dominate everywhere but the putting surface, with his win on the back of strong flat stick performance at the Hero now looking like an anomaly rather than a sudden form turnaround. The model heavily weights tee to green performance in predicting outcomes so Scheffler's struggles on the greens won't have much of an impact – however if you believe he has a problem that can't be fixed it's worth applying your own overlays on top of the model predictions.

This Week's Event

Another full field heads to Torrey Pines this week and while we've jettisoned the amateurs, there's still a requirement for a multicourse setup to get the field through at this time of year. The event kicks off later today so the finish won't interfere with the NFL playoffs so make sure to get your bets down tout suite.

Players can expect a much more difficult test than recent weeks. Cut makers will be tackling the host South Course three times and the examination will start right off the tee, with rough typically grown right up to impose significant penalty to wayward tee shots. On the subject of tee shots, this isn't a course well players can be clubbing down either, as the whopping 7,700 yard length requires long drives to have any chance of hitting a green in regulation.

The layout doesn't get any easier from there as players will be attacking well-protected greens that even when landed, can pose some difficult questions for the flat stick if landed in the wrong area.

Distance control with iron in hand is essential while around the green play will also be a separator for the inevitable repelled approaches. With a setup that will challenge nearly all aspects of a player's game I don't expect there to be a fourth long shot winner as the cream has much more opportunity to rise around this brutal setup.

COURSE HISTORY AND FIT

Torrey Pines is at the upper end of the scale in terms of predictiveness of past performance and with the track in rotation for longer than any current player's career, there's some hefty course history overlays popping up this week.

A very unlikely name has come up at the top, with short hitting Brandt Snedeker showing that it's possible to succeed here without length – although as we'll see in the course fit section he is absolutely the exception. Sned has outperformed to the tune of 1.5 strokes per rounds across a long history here and takes in a big overlay to his underlying skill.

Jason Day, Jon Vegas and Keegan Bradley have also done well here and take slightly lower overlays in. Not much to mention at the other end of the scale as players seem to avoid this track if they've had a rough go of it previously.

From a broader course fit perspective we find that off the tee distance is massively important and our friend Sned gives back much of his history overlay due to this adjustment. Interestingly, accuracy shows up as being less important than an average week in a rare case of the stats not really matching the eye test.

All other facets overindex compared to an average week, indicating that the difficulty is elevated compared to an average track.

Looking at the product of these overlays, Min Woo leads the pack on the back of his prodigious distance and strong short game while Nic Hojgaard isn't far behind. At the other end we find short hitters like Ryan Moore, Reavie and the aforementioned Snedeker copping sizeable penalties.

BETTING MARKETS

With the early start we've seen big volume flowing through the exchange with the lack of McIlroy and Scheffler meaning a wide open field. Xander has been installed as favourite and has been trending downwards in price since open on the back of strong interest.

Morikawa has paid the price for this interest and has drifted somewhat from open but still remains second in line. Similarly Max Homa opened low before the smart money moved in and he's been pretty stable at 16s once the volume appeared.

Min Woo is the big mover, with early volume in the 30s before some big money has seen him dip as low as $25.

SUNGJAE IM

While he doesn't have prodigious length, the other aspects of Im's game are very strong and he comes into this even on the back of form that has seen him finish no lower than 25th in his last eight starts. Great overlay on a bloke who is way overdue for a win.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Im for 0.4 units at $27.00+ 

PATRICK CANTLAY

The model agrees with Xander as favourite but there's no juice at his current price, so I'll be taking another stab at Cantlay, who really should be second in line in the betting. Started well last week before fading on the back of some suspect putting however unlike Scheffler this looks like a once off.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Cantlay for 0.3 units at $16.00 

BEAU HOSSLER

After a big form dip over 2020-21, Hossler has quietly worked his way back into the model top-50, with his off the tee play in particular reaching near career best levels. He finished off last season with some strong performances and with the rust knocked off last week he's a great chance to contend here.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Hossler for 0.1 units at $80.00 

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