3 minute read

PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM

Last Week's Wrap

With Cantlay and Hossler posting solid opening rounds, there was a decent profit on offer at the end of the first day. While Cantlay blew it from there – as he seems to have a habit of doing – Hossler was in the hunt during the final round and was trading in the $20s down the stretch for what would've been a tidy profit if you'd held any exposure.

Cantlay is one of the players I'd always be looking to trade as the closer to the top of the board he gets, the worse he seems to play. It's a shame as his underlying game is as consistent as they come, he just lacks it mentally to get it done – something the model won't ever pick up.

This Week's Event

We're looking at a wild week of weather along the California coast as the pros and the famous head to Pebble Beach for the signature pro-am event. This may be the week to have a good look at a fader like Cantlay as there is the distinct possibility of the weather preventing the event from going the distance!

This is a 'signature' status event so all the big names are showing up, although this list is getting shorter every week as more players are wooed by Saudi money – this week Ty Hatton joined Jon Rahm as the latest top player to defect. Still we've got Rory and Scottie lining up together for the first time this year and the rest of the 80-strong field is filled with quality.

It's the first time since 2019 these blokes have graced Pebble Beach with their presence and the best chance this season of breaking the streak of long shot winners. Pavon started well into triple figures last week making him the fourth long-odds victor in a row.

The format has seen some tweaking from last year, with the amatuers only joining in for two rounds while the pros will all play 72 holes with the cutline being removed. The event is still played over a multicourse setup, however the easy Monterey Peninsula track has been removed from the lineup so players will each have two goes at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill.

The Pebble Beach layout doesn't even reach 7,000 yards and while much of this tiny total is due a pair of miniscule par-3s it certainly isn't a track that asks for length. The weather will mean players will be clubbing down regardless, further reducing any advantage long hitters would usually have.

Spyglass Hill isn't much longer, reading in at a hair over 7,000 yards. The course design means that even if someone wants to risk a big tee shot, the par-5s don't really present eagle looks. I should note that this course is much less exposed to the weather than the host track so could present opportunities to play the weather angle should winds arrive as forecasted.

COURSE HISTORY AND FIT

Given the Pebble Beach's uniqueness, it's surprising that not many names have a strong history of overperformance here, however there are a few standout. Short hitting Brendon Todd heads up the list of overperformers, playing a stroke better than expected over his 17 rounds here. I should note that this expectation includes the benefit he already receives from the short course being a good fit for him, so I'm not double counting.

Nick Taylor has a few more rounds under his belt and has performed around three quarters of a stroke better, including a victory in 2020, with his added experience resulting in a similar bump in rating to Todd. Rounding out the list is 2022 winner Tom Hoge who is also receiving a decent overlay to his baselines.

WIth Spyglass Hill seeing equal action, it's worth a look there too. We find Hason Day and Matt Kuchar receiving small bumps due to solid performances here while the names above all receive modest overlays due to fewer rounds played.

From a fit perspective, distance is unsurprisingly not a requirement with approach, scrambling and putting all coming up as critical skills on the Pebble Beach layout. Based on this we find short hitters with a strong short game like Brendon Todd and Andrew Putname getting moderate bumps to their baselines, while Rory and other long hitters receive penalties.

Spyglass Hill has one of the weirdest fit stats of any Tour course, with a huge downweighting of driving accuracy and a massive uplift on putting, approach and distance skills. The result is some massive overlays on inaccurate, long hitters. Nic Hojgaard, McIlroy and Benny An are the keys names to call out, with Hojgaard in particular receiving a whopping 0.4 strokes added to his baseline skill.

Brendon Todd gives back all of his short hitter benefit from above and then some on this layout and he'll really need to make up ground on the other track to compete here. Other accurate hitters Si Woo, Henley and Glover all cop big penalties here as well.

BETTING MARKETS

Massive volume flowing through this week, with over half a million changing hands already. The market can't split Rory and Scheffler. While both are equal favourites, they have been drifting throughout trade as backers favour the longer names – maybe they're banking on another triple figure winner!

Xander is one of the big movers after early money changed hands at $23 he's been backed in on heavy volume to his current $18.50. Homa's chart looks almost identical and he's seen a lot of attention of any name on his way down from high 20s.

While his price has moved quite as far, it's Jordan Spieth who is driving a huge chunk of the strong market volume, with an eighth of market flows on him alone!

XANDER SCHAUFFELE

With Spieth and Rory miles under the odds according to the model there are some big plays coming up this week, with Schauffele the best of the lot. The model has him basically neck and neck with Rory as second favourite on the back of a massive start to his 2024 campaign.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Schauffele for 0.5 units at $18+ 

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER

I've mentioned it a few times before but as long as his putting woes are the only thing stopping him winning the model is going to keep throwing Scottie up as a play. The market simply places far too much emphasis on flat stick performance.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Scheffler for 0.4 units at $11.5+ 

COLLIN MORIKAWA

Had a mare at the Farmers Insurance but his underlying form is simply too strong to think this is anything but an anomaly – before missing last week's cut he had 4 straight finishes of 7th or better. His accuracy off the tee and iron play should suit the windy conditions.

Betting Strategy

BACK: Morikawa for 0.4 units at $26+ 

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