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THIS WEEK'S EVENT
Players will trade jumpers and wet-weather gear for sunscreen and short sleeves as the Tour heads from the coast to the desert. Phoenix will welcome a near full field of 132 players to the most popular event on Tour as TPC Scottsdale hosts The People's Open. It's missing out on its signature status of last season, which has resulted in a slight drop in quality, but two-time champ Scheffler will be lining up for a hat-trick while there's a decent assortment of other quality names.
The start to the year has been one of claustrophobic seaside layouts so players will likely be relishing a chance to dust off the driver for a proper hit out. While the 7,200 yard layout doesn't look like much on paper and is made even shorter by the desert air, players with length will be able to dodge hazards that will trouble the shorter hitters.
Some reachable par-5s throw up decent eagle opportunities and a number of long par-4s will mean this will be a test of long iron play – a stark contrast to last week's wedge fest. Greens are relatively easy to read and long-range putting performance is a big difference maker here, provided you manage to land the longer than average approaches.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
TPC Scottsdale sits at the top of the list of courses not named Augusta in terms of past performance informing future and with the event a stalwart of the calendar a good chunk of the field has a long history to look at.
Topping the list of over-achievers on this layout is Hideki, who has played over a stroke better than his baseline across an impressive 37-round history. Matt Kuchar has played similarly well here and they'll both take in around a third of a stroke overlays due to their past efforts here. Sitting just behind those names are Horschel, Fowler and JT.
At the other end of the list we find Si Woo, who seems to play particularly poorly on a course that should really suit his game.
Looking at the broader shots gained category-based fit we find the course plays roughly in line with the Tour average but places slightly more emphasis on driving – both distance and accuracy – as well as putting performance. The result is some fairly minor adjustments that aren't really changing the model outputs.
The weakish field has seen a slight dip from last week's bumper trading week but the market is still sitting at over half a million traded. Scottie is a hot favourite to complete his three-peat here and he's attracting a huge amount of bettor interest – well over a quarter of flows have been on him alone! That volume has seen his price come in from 7s to his current $6.20, which is pretty much bang on according to the model.
JT and Spieth are both attracting some interest although there haven't been major moves on their prices. The big mover is last week's hot-hand Wyndham Clark, who has been smashed in from $40 to $30 as bettors get a little carried away with his course record setting victory.
With the market pricing Scottie up fairly there isn't much value further down the board, but Sungjae is the pick of the bunch. After a great result at the Sentry, he has gone off the boil somewhat but his accuracy and putting prowess should suit this track well.
An has been getting hammered at the corporates but has been slow to move on the exchange. He is a fantastic course fit and comes in on the back of the best form in years so this is definitely a rare case of the usually savvy exchange punters mis-reading. Take advantage for a play here.
Not as great a course fit but is in a similarly strong vein of form. Hasn't had a Tour win since 2017 but has posted a bunch of runner ups. Could be a great trading opportunity.
While the overlays aren't big this week there are a lot of them. I couldn't really split these guys so they're all worth a bit of a flyer.