3 minute read

Pro punter and Betfair analyst Jackson Oldham is taking on a fancy in the two-year-old feature.

Pro Laying Blue Diamond Favourite 

Unbeaten colt Coleman rocketed to the top of the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes market after dominating the Group 3 Chairman's Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday.

Despite coming off one of the highest rated performances of recent times, Pro punter and Betfair Analyst Jackson Oldham is taking on the Matt Laurie trained runner in the time-honoured 2YO feature.

Short-priced horses have had a hard time of it in the Blue Diamond over the last decade, and Oldham is tipping that to continue.

"The quality of the race this year was a big factor for me being against him at the price," Oldham said.

Only one horse has won the race in the last decade with a Betfair Starting Price of less than $5, and the last seven have been won with an average starting price of $12.50.

"The deciding factor on pulling the trigger now was taking advantage of some potential recency bias in the market this week following his impressive victory last Saturday," Oldham added.

"Of course he is a winning chance but I couldn't see a world where $5.5 was his right price three weeks out from the race, with the likes of Bold Bastille and Bodyguard currently being double his price."

Coleman rocketed into calculations with his impressive finishing burst on Saturday, shortening from $9 into $4.50 for the Blue Diamond.

"The Chairman's Stakes isn't usually the lead-up for the Diamond, only Extreme Choice has done the double since the year 2000," Oldham said.

"Yes, his victory rated one of the highest this century, but on the ratings I use (FormKing) it was very comparable to and actually slightly below that of Lady Of Camelot who won the Widden Stakes in Sydney. 

Oldham holds concerns over other aspects of Coleman's prep, that might work against the talented colt.

"Three weeks between runs was another niggle for me. Laurie horses who aren't first-up but are 21+ days between runs are 5/83 over the last 12 months, losing 83% return on investment, that record goes to 1/32 over the same time period in Metro Melbourne."

Jackson Oldham provides regular betting strategies for Victorian race meetings on the Betfair Hub.

The full Blue Diamond market can be found at the Betfair Exchange