3 minute read

Blow the whistle! Because the A-League Analyst is providing tips on the best matches across each weekend fixture from Oceania’s premier men’s soccer league.

WESTERN UNITED V NEWCASTLE JETS

Two sides in terrible form will look to turn things around for their fans in this bottom of the table clash. Western Utd are rooted to the bottom of the ladder and Newcastle are in 10th with only Perth Glory in-between them. Western Utd have scored first in 9/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while Newcastle Jets have lost 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Newcastle have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Western Utd have endured a seven-game winless run in the league, including five defeats. They held Sydney to a 2-2 draw at home earlier this month, they then lost 2-0 in their away meeting against league leaders Wellington Phoenix last week. With two wins from 15 league games, they only have eight points, which is eight fewer than 11th-placed Perth Glory. They are having a really poor season.

Newcastle are not doing a lot better. They have just one win in the league this year and only four for the season so far. They have played back-to-back draws against Western Sydney and Melbourne Victory.

Looking at the Head to Head Newcastle won the past two meetings 2-0 and 2-1 and in 11 meetings, only four has seen both teams score. Incredibly just two of the 11 went Over 2.5 goals so I wouldn't be rushing to lump on the overs. Contrary to that, 10/11 had a first half goal and then just 4/11 had a second half goal, and both of the past two meetings ended with the score as it was at half time.

Overall though in the 11 meetings since 2019, it it four wins apiece and three draws.

Western Utd have the worst attacking record in the league this season, scoring 13 goals in 15 games, with six of them coming in home games.

Newcastle are winless in their last five away games, suffering three defeats. They have conceded at least three goals in four games in that period. Their scores were 3-3, 1-1, 1-2, 3-1 and 0-4. The game before those was a 3-2 loss away to Brisbane.

In 15 games this season, Western Utd have had just two draws, or 13% and Newcastle are a more league standard 35% with 6/17 games drawn, including their past two.

With Western Utd having those two draws within their past four games, a draw may well be on the cards here as both sides will be desperate not to lose.

Looking at the seven home games for United this season, there is only one win, one draw (last game here) and five losses. Both teams have scored in four of the seven home games and for Newcastle away it is 7/10. So with all that factored in, my price for both teams to score is $1.97.

It is $1.55 on Betfair and to me that is terrible value.

I am tempted to back Newcastle, despite being away because Western Utd have one win in 14 games. That's why they are bottom. But the Jets have just one win in seven. Interestingly, they have registered wins in their two league meetings against the hosts earlier this season while also keeping clean sheets, and will look to build on that form.

I can't have the hosts at $2.22 so I will lay them and cheer for Newcastle and that keeps a draw on our side as well.

Betting Strategy

LAY: Western United for 2 units at $2.24 

Check out more of Betfair's sport content including soccer predictions on the Betfair Hub.