3 minute read
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COGNIZANT CLASSIC
Last Week's Wrap
While model picks Ghim and Rai played well on their way to top-20 finishes, they were never really a chance as Jake Knapp built an unassailable lead across three rounds. After a long apprenticeship on the Korn Ferry and Canadian Tours, it was only Knapp's ninth start in the big leagues and marked an incredible turnaround for the 29-year old who lost his KFT card just two years back. His win was far from convincing – he hit only two fairways in his final round – but he'd done enough across the first three to jag a relatively easy victory.
This Week's Event
The Florida swing kicks off this week, with the Honda Open receiving a new sponsor this year and rebranded to the Cognizant Classic. The venue remains the same, with PGA National welcoming a 142-man field headlined by Rory McIlroy. While Rory is the only really big name, there's a decent mix of lesser lights – certainly better quality than recent editions of this event.
The Champion Course is just 7,147 yards and is played as a par-71. Being Florida, water is everywhere and is properly in play, not just for decoration – even Rory will be losing a ball or two this week. The course has received some minor updates to mitigate some of the scoring difficulties of prior year, with the tenth moving from a long par-4 to a short par-5 while fairways have been widened.
Despite the changes this will still play tough, especially if winds get up. The track has been described as a second shot course and the stats back this up, with approach in the top 5 most difficult courses on Tour.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
The course has a long history so I've got some decent sample sizes to lean on for course history adjustments. Sepp Straka heads up the list of overperformers here, with a win and a T5 in his last two starts contributing to a near 2 stroke per round exceedance of his baseline prediction across his 18 rounds. Russell Henley has a less impressive history but his stroke per round outperformance has come across double the sample size so they are both taking in similar overlays here.
A surprising name appears at the other end of the spectrum, with Rory laying two third of a stroke below his lofty baseline around PGA National.
Looking at strokes gained categories we find some surprising results – other than driving distance which comes in about dead on average, all other stats are downweighted compared to a regular week. This is something that usually shows up on easy courses and it means that baseline skill is less predictive than it would be on an average course. This could be a by-product of the random nature of lost ball penalties, or perhaps the course just isn't as difficult as it looks on paper. Either way there's plenty of data in the sample here so it's a real outcome, not a result of a lack of data.
BETTING MARKETS
Pretty tame volume flowing through, reflecting the so-so quality of this week's field. Rory is in at favourite with a sizeable gap back to the challengers. The veteran has attracted around 15% of total flows however his price has barely budged. The model isn't seeing any value in him so I'll be looking a bit further down the board for tips.
While he's in a second favourite, Cam Young can barely find a backer and his price has been drifting consistently since markets opened. Lowry and Fitzpatrick are the other drifters, with both struggling to recapture their Major-winning form from yesteryear.
BYEONG HUN AN
He's becoming a bit of a regular in the tips section as the market continues to undervalue his recent form revival. He's barely put a foot wrong this year and just needs his putter to get firing to be in with a shot here.
Betting Strategy
BACK: An for 0.2 units at $36+ 
LUKE LIST
The big hitting veteran is coming off a runner up at the Genesis where his iron play was superb. Despite never really putting a big year together, he's usually good for a victory every season so let's hope it comes early in 2024!
Betting Strategy
BACK: List for 0.1 units at $70+
BEAU HOSSLER
Another name that's popping up here on the regular, Hossler's form has been on a very steady upslope for almost two years. He hasn't missed a cut since August last year. He's got all the required skills, he just needs everything to come together across the four days to nab a well-deserved maiden victory.
Betting Strategy
BACK: Hossler for 0.1 units at $70+
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