3 minute read
Chris Scholtz previews the Caulfield Cup with selections for all races at Caulfield and Randwick on October 21 and Trial Watch and Blackbook Reports.
2023 CAULIFIELD CUP
I doubt the betting has got it wrong grouping a squad of high class international stayers at the top of the market.
GOLD TRIP, second last year before going on to Melbourne Cup glory, is clearly the best stayer in an Australian stable, a rating he confirmed just two weeks ago at Flemington with his stunning burst over the last 400m to win the Turnbull Stakes (2000m).
He's clearly as good if not better than 12 months ago and I concede he's not badly treated with only 1kg more than last year and rising just a half kilo off his Turnbull win. However horses who have been close in his rear vision in past races (MONTEFILIA, WEST WIND BLOWS, SOULCOMBE) do have significant weight adjustments in their favour from their previous meetings.
The UK raider WEST WIND BLOWS will meet Gold Trip 3kg better from his excellent Australian debut in the Turnbull where he finished a game second after a tough run.
While yet to win at 2400m his two placings from four UK starts over the trip have been high rating performances that equate well to Caulfield Cup standard. From a soft draw he should enjoy a cosy run close to the pace.
Chris Waller is chasing his third Caulfield Cup in four years with the Sydney trainer having fine-tuned the art of having his stayers peak on the right spring day in Melbourne. This year he holds a big hand with the imported SOULCOMBE and MONTEFILIA, the multiple G1 winner who has regained her top form since joining the Waller stable earlier this year.
MONTEFILIA has finished fourth in the past two Caulfield Cups but this shapes as her best chance after overwhelming HOO YA MAL with a powerful surge to win the Hill Stakes (1900m) at Rosehill carrying 57kg under the wfa conditions. With 54.5kg she's carrying 1kg less than last year and meets GOLD TRIP 2kg better, enough to say she can turn it around after less than a length separated them at the finish 12 months ago.
I wouldn't dismiss Hill Stakes form as HOO YA MAL is an Epsom Derby runner-up who is yet to run over 2400m in Australia. He could easily rate through the roof dropping 6kg to only 53kg.
SOULCOMBE ticks the right boxes across the board. He's been set for this year's Cups double since he burst onto the local scene with a resounding win over 2600m when making his Australian debut at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day last spring and it's hard to fault the prep Waller has given him over the last eight weeks.
He won first-up over 1700m at Caulfield on September 2 carrying 58.5kg and has since performed admirably with a fourth in the Underwood Stakes (1800m) and third in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) where he received only 2kg from GOLD TRIP. There's now 5kg between them and he will relish a fast run 2400m contest under handicap conditions.
Class import WITHOUT A FIGHT, the star of the Brisbane winter, is the other highly rated contender.
His prep has been unorthodox with only one lead-up for a closing sixth in the Underwood since his big wins in Brisbane in May and June, but I suspect the Freedmans have done their homework and have him pegged as a horse who responds best to a well-spaced program.
The unknown quantities are the Irish stablemates OKITA SOUSHI and VALIANT KING from the Joseph O'Brien stable and the well-performed Japanese stayer BREAKUP.
O'Brien has made a significant impact on the Melbourne spring on past visits and it would be folly to dismiss his pair as genuine lightweight threats. There is a confident push for VALIANT KING, his 50kg a luxury for a horse boasting strong 2400m form at Royal Ascot that relates well to the ratings required to win a Caulfield Cup.
BREAKUP is a strong Japanese stayer but no superstar as some pundits have described him. He has contested top grade G1 events in his homeland but is still several points below the ratings the previous Japanese-trained winners ADMIRE RAKTI and MER DE GLACE brought to this race.
SUMMARY: I'm banking with Chris Waller to have SOULCOMBE timed for a career peak performance. He's weighted to find the necessary improvement but is sure to find WEST WIND BLOWS, GOLD TRIP, WITHOUT A FIGHT and his stablemate MONTEFILIA tough rivals in what rates as a high class edition. My value inclusions for extended exotics are HOO YA MAL and VALIANT KING.
SELECTIONS: (8) SOULCOMBE; (6) West Wind Blows; (4) Montefilia; (1) Gold Trip; (2) Without A Fight; (10) Hoo Ya Mal; (18) Valiant King
CAULFIELD October 21
Best Bets
RACE 8: (10) NUNTHORPE – Progressive mare. Well placed to keep the roll going.
RACE 10: (5) VIVIANE: She's a winner! Weight scale favours her to extend the picket fence.
For Value
RACE 5: (8) INHIBITIONS – Fit mare in top form. J Mac and a soft inside draw make a good combination.
RACE 9: (8) SOULCOMBE - Has had an excellent prep. Set to reach a new peak.
Selections
RACE 1: (1) THE INSTRUCTOR; (2A) Brave Mead; (5) Reprisal; (3) Kaizad
RACE 2: (2) RIFF ROCKET; (4) Gold Bullion; (1) Sunsource; (7) To Be Frank
RACE 3: (1) TROPICAL SQUALL; (6) Grinzinger Belle; (5) Konasana; (4) Autumn Angel
RACE 4: (2) DON CORLEONE; (8) Facile; (6) Critique; (7) Dark Halo
RACE 5: (8) INHIBITIONS; (3) Coeur Volante; (14) Moesha; (2) Bossy Nic
RACE 6: (4) GENERAL BEAU; (6) Spacewalk; (7) Doull; (2) Generation
RACE 7: (8) C'EST MAGIQUE; (2) Skew Wiff; (5) Wrote To Arataki; (7) Waltz On By
RACE 8: (10) NUNTHORPE; (3) Buffalo River; (11) Climbing Star; (7) Cause For Concern
RACE 9: (8) SOULCOMBE; (6) West Wind Blows; (4) Montefilia; (1) Gold Trip
RACE 10: (5) VIVIANE; (11) Ghaanati; (10) Lempicka; (8) WIllinga Beast
RANDWICK October 21
Best Bets
RACE 4: (6) MARQUESS - Impressive stayer in the making with three wins from his four starts since resuming, making it five from his last six. Has offset a month since his latest win over 1900m in this class at Rosehill (beating a subsequent winner easily) with a strong 1200m trial and confident he has the talent to overcome a 3kg weight increase.
RACE 5: (12) COMMEMORATIVE - Giant filly with enormous potential. Made a huge impact on debut when she bolted away with a maiden over 1100m at Canterbury in June with the Godolphin stable immediately putting her on ice for some lofty targets (Thousand Guineas?). Pitting her against older rivals first-up is a gamble but she's carrying no weight and soft trials have her ready to explode fresh.
RACE 7: (11) UNSPOKEN - Import took his time to find his legs in his first local prep but has really hit his straps since resuming with two strong wins over 1500m and 1600m at Rosehill and Randwick. Plenty of merit in his determined last start win under 58kg over this course and distance and holds the scope to go on with it dropping 6kg to the limit weight from a kind draw.
Selections
RACE 1: (8) THE THREE HUNDRED; (2) Agenda Setter; (6) Shangri La Express; (4) Lamentum
RACE 2: (10) LAWYER'S DELIGHT; (4) Whodat; (2) Amarantz; (5) Fay's Angels
RACE 3: (5) PEACE OFFICER; (10) Epicus; (3) Rebel Shadow; (13) Victory Lane
RACE 4: (6) MARQUESS; (1) Mission Phoenix; (4) Stroke Of Luck; (8) Pierossa
RACE 5: (12) COMMEMORATIVE; (3) Kazou; (5) Overriding; (10) Demiana
RACE 6: (8) CONTEMPORARY; (7) Smashing Eagle; (9) Jedibeel; (13) Another Cognac
RACE 7: (11) UNSPOKEN; (4) New Mandate; (14) Political Debate; (10) Looks Like Elvis
RACE 8: (5) COTEHELE; (2) Democracy Manifest; (14) Altivo; (6) Waterford
RACE 9: (11) LOCH EAGLE; (12) Journalism; (2) Lion's Roar; (9) For Valour
RACE 10: (16) KA BLING; (7) Pizarro; (9) Dynamic Impact; (5) Extremely Lucky
Why They Can Win……
RACE 1: (8) THE THREE HUNDRED - Professional trials. Can take advantage of rails draw on home track.
RACE 2: (10) LAWYER'S DELIGHT - Expect him to be strong late over this distance. Nicely weighted with 3kg claim.
RACE 3: (5) PEACE OFFICER - Going well in this class. Had excuses last time.
RACE 6: (8) CONTEMPORARY - Nice trials have him ready to sprint well fresh off a strong pace.
RACE 8: (5) COTEHELE – Big sectionals late when luckless first-up in strong form race. Genuine performer drawn to enjoy best run.
RACE 9: (11) LOCH EAGLE - Sets up nicely for this off a strong trial win with a significant gear change. Good value.
RACE 10: (16) KA BLING – Fitter and can take advantage of his inside draw with a handy drop in weight.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – October 18-21
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Agenda Setter (R1); The Three Hundred (R1); Shangri La Express (R1); Marquess (R4); Kazou (R5); Overriding (R5); Junqueirah (R5); Commemorative (R5); Contemporary (R6); New Mandate (R7); Wicklow (R7); Fawkner Park (R8); New Republic (R8); Loch Eagle (R9); Spangler (R9); Barossa Rosa (R10)
KEMBLA GRANGE SATURDAY: Influential (R3); Vintonic (R5); Galaxy Field (R6)
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Up To Mischief; Dream Hour; Luton Hoo; I Am Me; Just In Time; Need Some Luck; Sovereign Hill; Gustosisimo; King's Gambit; Schwarz; Spacewalk; Facile; Salisano; Think About It; Costa Smerelda; Dark Halo; Whinchat; Sequestered; Arctic Glamour; Big Apple; Medatsu, Razors; Ozzmosis; Midori Glory; Midnight Opal; Rhettara; Excess; Afterlight
TRIAL POINTERS
ROSEHILL October 13: VINTONIC, a 5YO maiden, showed good pace to win the fastest heat over 1030m trial (63.43; 35.83). Other maidens worth noting include the heat winner INFLUENTIAL.
WARWICK FARM October 9: Big talent FAWKNER PARK recorded a strong win his 1200m heat (74.60; 35.67) in a sure sign he will be competitive when he resumes. The classy prospect MARQUESS had an easy time finishing fourth in a mid-prep trial for what lies ahead. In the 2YO heats I Am Invincible colt THE THREE HUNDRED recorded his second Warwick Farm trial win, breaking away from his rivals with superior speed over the last 400m for a sharp win in his 795m heat (46.24; 33.18) in quicker time than the fillies heat won by MISS JUDAS (46.60; 33.57).
ROSEHILL October 3: In the open heats over 900m a strong placing by CONTEMPORARY points to him performing strongly when he next go to the races.
WARWICK FARM September 25: THE THREE HUNDRED, a colt by I Am Invincible, was ridden out to win his heat over 812m (48.70; (34.50).
ROSEHILL September 19: KAZOU was eager to run and was too sharp winning a fast 900m heat (54.75; 34.47).
WYONG September 18: BAROSSA ROSA trialled strongly to post the fastest win in the 1000m heats (58.39; 34.06). Another1000m heat winner to impress was OVERRIDING (60.61; 33.74).
BLACKBOOK REPORT
Eligible Blackbook Runners – October 21
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Amarantz (R2); Stroke Of Luck (R4); Gan Teorainn (R4); Molly Nails (R5); Detonator Jack (R8); Democracy Manifest (R8); Cotehele (R8); Waterford (R8); Fawkner Park (R8); Altivo (R8); Lion's Roar (R9); Pizarro (R10)
CAULFIELD SATURDAY: Dolphin Skin (R3); Madame Pommery (R7); Wollombi (R7); C'Est Magique (R7); West Wind Blows (R9); Soulcombe (R9)
EAGLE FARM SATURDAY: Territory Ash (R2)
AVOCA SATURDAY: Crackerjack Prince
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Pesto; Sharp Shock; Attrition; Territory Express; Magic Time; Queen Of Dragons; Foujita San; Airman; Vienna Princess; First Immortal; Espiona; Archo Nacho; Satness; Wolfy; Unspoken; Recommendation; Snapback; Devoted; Garza Blanca; Diamond Dealer; Wineglass Bay; Tags; Apulia
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected October 14
(Follow for next 3 starts)
BROADCASTER; EASTERN GLOW; I'VE BEEN TRYIN; MORE SECRETS; ROSE QUARTZ; RUSTIC STEEL; STAGEMAN; THALASSOPHILE
