3 minute read
Chris Scholtz previews the W.S Cox Plate plus selections for all races at Moonee Valley and Randwick on October 28 including Trial Watch and Blackbook runners.
It's billed as the best two minutes in Australian racing. The unique amphitheatre that is Moonee Valley is central to the drama that inevitably plays out on the track but you will get no argument here that the W.S. Cox Plate deserves its reputation as the weight-for-age championship of Australia.
Every champion from every era since its first running some 100 years ago appears on the Cox Plate honour roll of winners. They cover every spectrum of class and ability – from sprinter-milers that somehow managed to extend their brilliance to the Cox Plate distance to grand stayers whose superior stamina came to the fore when others were found wanting over that demanding last 400 metres.
They include a four-time winning mare hailed as the greatest of them all; a triple winner who had no peer over distances from 1200m to 3200m; crowd favourites who raised the roof with their on track heroics and charisma; veterans who defied their age (some not once but twice); ill-fated stars who gave us a brief taste of their brilliance; internationals who came, saw and conquered Australia's best; and above all the one we revere as Australia's finest racing legend.
Regardless of the field size, the Cox Plate inevitably plays out as a racing melodrama due to the unique configuration that is Moonee Valley. Only Happy Valley in Hong Kong can rival Melbourne's suburban rectangle – circumference less than 1800 metres - as a major metropolitan racing venue that brings the public so close to the action.
Watching any race from any viewpoint at The Valley is unique, especially from vantage points high on the home turn. On Cox Plate day it's a surreal experience!
On a design scale The Valley wouldn't rate in the world's top 50 racecourses yet it hosts a race that ranks high on the global list of G1 races. It's not Australia's richest race but year on year you will be pressed to find an event that can boast the same depth of talent and class as the Cox Plate – and Inevitably raises so much conjecture about its outcome.
And so we come to this year's Cox Plate and a field that rates as one of the best of recent years for all the reasons that make it such a great race. It's all there - the best current weight-for-age performers, top class international runners, a revered Melbourne Cup winner, outstanding mares and exciting three-year-olds challenging their older peers.
The Hong Kong champion (1) ROMANTIC WARRIOR and Ireland's (10) VICTORIA ROAD will drive worldwide interest and betting turnover, remembering that the Moonee Valley program will be covered by the booming world betting pool that generates huge turnover from more than a dozen racing jurisdictions including punt mad Hong Kong, USA, UK, France, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Dubai, Germany and South Africa.
The deeds of imports (2) ZAAKI and (5) GOLD TRIP are also well known to international horse players and they will be well versed in the form and abilities of our local stars (4) ALLIGATOR BLOOD, (8) FANGIRL and (3) MR BRIGHTSIDE and co. The confident prediction is this betting pot pourri will drive the world pool turnover past the massive figures generated by the recent Everest and Caulfield Cup meetings.
So how will it play out? Much is being made of the speed map for this year's Cox Plate but I doubt it will be run at record pace, unlike the recent Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup where the early speed was lengths quicker than average.
ZAAKI's wide draw should see him cross quickly and look for the lead with his only challengers likely to be ALLIGATOR BLOOD and VICTORY ROAD. I suspect ALLIGATOR BLOOD'S rider Tim Clark will not engage in a speed duel and will be content to sit off the lead and reserve his superior turn of foot until the pressure builds as they make the charge to the home turn.
That may be the key moment as Cox Plates invariably become a gut wrenching test with many winners being the horse capable of sustaining a long drive that often begins more than 600m from the finish.
If that scenario unfolds it plays to the strengths of the staying types and will clearly favour GOLD TRIP, an unlucky ninth last year before winning the Melbourne Cup over 3200 metres.
This spring GOLD TRIP has been superb winning a fast run Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington before his game third under the topweight in last week's brutal Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He's going as well, if not better, than last year but you have to question how much sprint he has left in those legs for the drop back in distance from last Saturday's taxing effort that will have taken much more out of him than his Caulfield Cup second last year when he enjoyed an easier run under less weight.
As always it's hard to get a firm line on the international runners even though we have had the benefit of seeing ROMANTIC WARRIOR perform in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington when he was first-up after four months.
His fourth placing was a pass mark and much has since been made about his improved fitness and sparkling trackwork when taken to Moonee Valley for gallops this past week.
His Hong Kong record against northern hemisphere rivals at G1 level is first class and can be gauged by his dominance over the likes of Dubai Honour, the UK star who won two G1 races in Australia.
Alas, HK form doesn't translate all that well to Australia conditions. It's a sobering fact that only one Hong Kong-trained star (Cape Of Good Hope in the 2005 William Reid Stakes) has won a G1 race in Australia from 47 starts by 18 different visitors.
ROMANTIC WARRIOR will be only the fourth HK-trained runner in a Cox Plate but to date their record is abysmal - River Verdon was 11th in 1994, Elegant Fashion ninth in 2004 and Super Kid seventh in 2005.
While he arrives with superior ratings to that trio you have to question why Romantic Warrior's appearance in the Turnbull Stakes was the first time in eight years that Hong Kong has been represented in a G1 race in Australia. Perhaps the realisation that it's a bridge too far?
Looking for the positives, he gets champion jockey James McDonald (four rides for three wins) from a draw that should see him settle in a close striking position from the start but I feel the betting market is paying Romantic Warrior too much respect. He has to be a lay at his current price at the top of the market given his beaten margin of almost four lengths behind Gold Trip in the Turnbull Stakes.
On ratings and current form ALLIGATOR BLOOD deserves to be favourite. He has got better with every start this spring and is certain to be called the winner at some stage if he gets the anticipated sit on the lead.
After winning the Underwood Stakes (1800m) he answered the 2000m query with his resounding last start victory in the G1 Might And Power Stakes at Caulfield when he soaked up the early pressure to return a rating that would have won him any number of Cox Plates over the last 20 years.
He ran through the line to record one of the fastest 2000m wins at Caulfield in the last eight years, reaching a new peak that he only has to sustain to be the horse to beat in the Cox Plate.
GOLD TRIP and the Sydney mare FANGIRL are the pair I feel can challenge ALLIGATOR BLOOD when the chips are down.
FANGIRL is taking on 2040m for the first time but she's a G1 winner over 1850m as a 3YO and is another who attained a new career peak rating when she ran away from MR BRIGHTSIDE for a dominant win in the $5 million King Charles over 1600m at Randwick two weeks ago.
The quality of MR BRIGHTSIDE'S prior Melbourne wins over ALLIGATOR BLOOD in races up to 1600m underlines the merit of the King Charles form. With Chris Waller's knack with mares (remember Winx!) and a favourable good track FANGIRL will never get a better time to tackle this trip.
She loses nothing with Hong Kong's champion jockey Zac Purton flying in for the mount and his task will be to give her a patient ride as she possesses a fast finishing sprint that will be negated if she is forced to make a long run from the 600m.
MR BRIGHTSIDE boasts the best Moonee Valley form where his three wins from four starts up to 1600m include the $5 million All Star Mile. However he regressed from his earlier spring form in the King Charles when FANGIRL ran away from him over the last 150m and despite drawn to enjoy the run of the race he must be questioned over this extra trip given his two previous defeats beyond the mile.
Irish raider VICTORY ROAD is the wild card. The fact that he is a G1 winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile over 1760m and hails from the Aidan O'Brien stable is good enough in itself, but takes on more relevance when you relate him to the O'Brien family's past Cox Plate winners ADELAIDE and STATE OF REST.
Like VICTORY ROAD they were both 3YOs to Northern Hemisphere time and he lands here off two lead-up races over 2000m and 1600m in France and Ireland where the suspicion is they were used as prep trials for this major target. He has a ratings gap to make up on the locals but he is a go forward type and it wouldn't surprise to see him make an early challenge for the lead.
Much is being made of the chances of the local 3YOs (11) MILITARIZE and (12) KING OF COLORADO due to their feather weights of 49.5kg. They have the talent to exploit their weight advantage but this is a strong year and they have to find a lot off their current marks to match their seasoned older rivals.
SUMMARY: Happy to play wide with FANGIRL offering the best value while ALLIGATOR BLOOD has to be the anchor bet for exotics. He is flying and will be the horse to beat if runs up to his Caulfield form but they will all be looking out for GOLD TRIP as he is sure to be strongest late. ROMANTIC WARRIOR will need to be at his very best to make up the leeway from his Turnbull Stakes fourth.
SELECTIONS: (8) FANGIRL; (4) Alligator Blood; (5) Gold Trip; (1) Romantic Warrior; (3) Mr Brightside; (11) Militarize
MOONEE VALLEY October 28
Best Plays
RACE 3: (5) SOUL CHOICE - Good record this trip and will be better for her last run. On pace runner can exploit her weight advantage.
RACE 5: (1) TUVALU – Has the best course and distance credentials. Rates to win on his G1 form.
RACE 10: (2) MAHARBA: Hit straps second up with strong win this course and distance beating subsequent winner. Will be better for it.
Selections
RACE 1: (3) TAUNTING; (5) Shalaman; (2) Unflinching; (4) Fasuto
RACE 2: (8) BOLD BASTILLE; (9) Chosen Legend; (15) Blue Stratum; (13) Immortal Star
RACE 3: (5) SOUL CHOICE; (4) El Francais; (2) Wishlor Lass; (1) Thalassophile
RACE 4: (5) SHEVA; (3) Inhibitions; (4) Cigar Flick; (7) Divine Glory
RACE 5: (1) TUVALU; (4) Antino; (2) Bankers Choice; (6) Prowess
RACE 6: (2) APRILIA; (4) Captain Amelia; (8) Skybird; (3) Carina Queen
RACE 7: (3) VERDAD; (4) Apulia; (2) Air Assault; (1) Sunsource
RACE 8: (6) IMPERATRIZ; (7) I Am Me; (2) Buenos Noches; (3) Uncommon James
RACE 9: (8) FANGIRL; (4) Alligator Blood; (5) Gold Trip; (1) Romantic Warrior
RACE 10: (2) MAHARBA; (3) Archo Nacho; (10) Schwarz; (1) Barber
RANDWICK October 28
Best Bets
RACE 4 (8) SEQUESTERED: Posted one of the best restricted class wins of the spring when she let down with a great turn of foot to win a BM78 over 1400m at this course after a similar soft first-up win over 1300m at Rosehill. Plenty of depth in those performances and she should have no trouble extending to 1600m in the same class with a soft draw helping to offset a 3kg rise in weight.
RACE 9 (11) ARCTIC GLAMOUR: Impressive filly has emerged as an exciting prospect with high rating wins in her two starts since resuming. Did what few can achieve by jumping from a first-up maiden win over 1200m at Rosehill to a Listed win against her own sex in the Reginald Allen (1400m) at this course when she showed classy acceleration under 57.5kg. Faces another big step meeting the colts but holds untapped potential and rates to win with a handy drop in weight from the rails barrier.
RACE 10 (10) FALL FOR CINDY: Fast improving mare is well placed to carry on with the good form she has displayed in her two starts since resuming. Followed her eye catching first-up second over 1300m at Rosehill with an impressive finish from midfield to win a BM 72 over 1400m at Warwick Farm under 60.5kg. Holds plenty of scope to improve further with a 4kg drop in weight from that win.
Selections
RACE 1: (9) EYE PEA OH; (2) Chief Conductor; (10) Ningaloo Star; (7) Lancaster Bomber
RACE 2: (9) DOLLAR MAGIC; (4) Pioneer River; (5) Sebonack; (10) Kimberley Secrets
RACE 3: (5) SUPER EXTREME; (10) Bandi's Boy; (11) Fiorino; (20) Love Shuck
RACE 4: (8) SEQUESTERED; (15) Territory Express; (10) Super Chilled; (3) Pervade
RACE 5: (10) MUMBAI MUSE; (5) Balkans; (9) Fire Lane; (2) General Salute
RACE 6: (10) RENAISSANCE WOMAN; (2) Numerian; (3) No Compromise; (1) Huetor
RACE 7: (2) TOM KITTEN; (8) Cap Ferrat; (5) Glad You Think So; (12) Tutta La Vita
RACE 8: (2) ESPIONA; (7) Magic Time; (6) Roots; (5) Opal Ridge
RACE 9: (11) ARCTIC GLAMOUR; (3) Heman; (1) Namesake; (2) Chrysaor
RACE 10: (10) FALL FOR CINDY; (4) Gringotts; (8) Bunker Hut; (3) Felix Majestic
Why They Can Win….
RACE 1: (9) EYE PEA OH - Impressive first-up placing in this class. Sure to come on from that run.
RACE 2: (9) DOLLAR MAGIC - Strong efforts since resuming. Winnable race with a 3kg drop in weight.
RACE 3: (5) SUPER EXTREME - Found 1000m too short second up in open company. Boasts two wins at Randwick, set for another.
RACE 5 (10) MUMBAI MUSE - She's still a maiden but has put the class form on the board. Ready for this off a strong trial.
RACE 6 (10) RENAISSANCE WOMAN - Too classy over 1600m second up and will be better over this trip. Right race at right time.
RACE 7 (2) TOM KITTEN - Class act with the best form. Just needs the right run.
RACE 8 (2) ESPIONA - Will find back to her own sex far different to The Everest. The one to beat at 1400m.
TRIAL WATCH REPORT
NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – October 25
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Mumbai Muse (R5); Chrysaor (R9); Tutta La Vita (R7)
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Saltaire (R4)
KEMBLA GRANGE SATURDAY: Speymalt (R6); Just Easy (R6)
TAREE SUNDAY: Sharkim (R7)
NEWCASTLE MONDAY: Melissa (R4); Magnatear (R5); Trapeze Pleasure (R5); World Alliance (R2)
RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Nebraskan; Yankee One; Estephania; Gai's Artist; Kazou; Shangri La Express; Influential; Up To Mischief; Dream Hour; Luton Hoo; I Am Me; Just In Time; Need Some Luck; Sovereign Hill; Gustosisimo; King's Gambit; Schwarz; Spacewalk; Facile; Salisano; Think About It; Costa Smerelda; Dark Halo; Whinchat; Sequestered; Arctic Glamour; Big Apple; Medatsu
TRIAL POINTERS
RANDWICK October 20: Zoustar filly MUMBAI MUSE is still a maiden after five starts but has a G2 placing in the Furious Stakes on her record and has had a month to freshen since her last start in the G2 Tea Rose. Looks ready for what lies ahead after cruising home in her 742m heat (43.49; 33.21), extending nicely from off the pace to run past the leader with strong work over the last 100m. In a fast heat over 1045m (62.28; 34.27) the runner-up CHRYSAOR impressed with his late work and looks close to a win.
ROSEHILL October 13: In the fastest heat over 1030m (63.43; 35.83) the lightly raced Not A Single Doubt mare SPEYMALT took the eye with her impressive third in her first trial since July. The open heat over 1030m was won in good style by the quality filly TUTTA LA VITA (63.75; 34.99). She led comfortably and had plenty in hand through the line.
WARWICK FARM October 9: Speed runners dominated the short course maiden heats with a smart win over 792m by FLYING RANI (45.40; 32.58);
RANDWICK September 22: Fast running Not A Single Doubt mare MELISSA cleared out for an impressive win in her maiden heat and while the time wasn't flash (63.75; 35.24) it was the manner of her win that made an impression as she pulled her way to a big lead and was never off the bit to score by almost four lengths. Stronger than last season when she was placed once in three starts.
BLACKBOOK REPORT
Eligible Blackbook Runners – October 25
MOONEE VALLEY FRIDAY: Ranges (R5)
MOONEE VALLEY SATURDAY: Thalassophile (R3); Osmose (R3); Maracana (R3); Right To Party (R4); Broadcaster (R6); King Colorado (R9)
RANDWICK SATURDAY: Colour Sergeant (R4); Olentia (R6); Russian Conquest (R8/R10)
RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Without A Fight; Stroke Of Luck; Crackerjack Prince; Pesto; Sharp Shock; Attrition; Territory Express; Magic Time; Queen Of Dragons; Foujita San; Airman; Vienna Princess; First Immortal; Espiona; Archo Nacho; Satness; Wolfy; Unspoken; Recommendation; Snapback; Devoted; Garza Blanca; Diamond Dealer
BLACKBOOKERS – Selected October 21
(Follow for next 3 starts)
CALL DI; COMMEMORATIVE; DON CORLEONE; KA BLING; ROGUE BEAR; VIVY AIR
