Search

show me:

Davis Files : Happy Valley Preview - 29th October 2023

3 minute read

Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Happy Valley races.

Happy Valley racecourse
Happy Valley racecourse Picture: HKJC

Rail - C Course

Race 1

#1 AUGUST MOON hasn't won a race since April 2022 when he got the money off a rating of 48.He's suffered quite a number of injuries to his front legs in the past which lead to surgery earlier this year to remove bone fragments from his left knee.With the added fitness of three runs, the drop into class 5 and the inside draw he's attractive on the eye, and a recent trial win confirms he's ready to roll.
#5 HAPPY TANGO is a 3 time winner in class 4 at his best and capable of running well in this grade on turf.He's best know for his efforts on dirt but this is a race where he can find himself in the finish.He likely leads, without much pressure, which enables him the chance to defend the race from a position in front.
#7 BRILLIANT PIONEER made a positive debut for the new stable of Ricky Yiu and was held up at a vital stage.With a run under the saddle he'll be much improved and I like the way he's moved during the mornings since.
The races won't get any easier for him so it's make or break regarding his future,therefore I'm inclined to sneak him in to the selections.
#11 BELLE OF VICTORY joined the Douglas Whyte stable in the off season break before returning with a luckless narrow defeat.He's struggled throughout his career to make an impression on the score sheet with that his first sign of ability.That effort, in isolation, gives him hope with a rise to 1200m a likely assist.
#3 STARRY NIGHT has only visited the lowest grade on three occasions and was twice good enough to feature in frame.With 2 mediocre runs in the higher grade under his belt, and an awkward beginning last start, he's difficult to recommend with any conviction.But with Zac Purton jumping back aboard I'd give him another chance.

Selections : 1,5,7,11,3

R2 - 1,4,7,3,8

R3 - 5,6,3,12,11

R4 - 7,4,10,1,3

Race 5

#8 DURHAM STAR finished off last season a consistent contributor and has begun this preparation in an identical frame of mind.Although beaten as the 2.2 favourite last start he had legitimate excuses.Traffic congestion at a vital stage played its part by holding him in approaching the home bend, otherwise he'd have won.With Purton again up from the same draw you'd wouldn't expect a case of déjàvu, so it's worth diving in once more.
#5 GOLDEN BULL ventures to Happy Valley for his city circuit debut whilst extending to the mile at the same time.The draw appears favourable and his lead up runs have been encouraging so I'd expect a decent performance.The only deterrent is his inclusion into the roarer's data base which came about at the end of last season.
#2 RED HARE KING gave the impression racing at Happy Valley would be a good option for him at the end of last term.After an initial look around here last start expect him to improve going in third up.With reliable gate speed he can position forward, making the others work, and if he improves on his closing strength, which he should, he'll be right in the winning hunt.
#9 MANAGEMENT FOLKS was in tremendous form over the longer journeys right throughout last season and should not be overlooked.The 1650m first up is likely to be to sharp but he's only tried the journey once.With no trial witnessed there's some lingering doubt, but if they overcook things up front he'll mop up the mess.
#12 DRAGON STAR needs the drop in grade to assure a win but is racing too well to receive it.The wide draw won't make it easy to cross early on but he'll definitely attempt it.He's about to peak in fitness and has a gutsy and hearty approach, so if it works out early he's dangerous to leave out.

Selections : 8,5,2,9,12

Race 6

#2 JUNEAU FLASH was ultra consistent for most of last season and trialled up nicely in preparation for his return.He's often found trouble out the starting stalls or been awkwardly away, which was the case first up, but then found the line with purpose here last start.Brenton Avdulla receives his chance to now get behind the wheel and has grown in confidence over the past few weeks.
#1 TOMODACHI KOKOROE won 6 consecutive races in northern Queensland before being imported to Hong Kong so he can obviously gallop.He struggled with the whole acclimatisation thingy upon arrival with his form just moderate last campaign.He appears better within himself this preparation and with few things in his favour should run a strong race.
#4 GOLDEN LINK enjoyed a good run in transit last start before going desperately close to another win.The draw today looks a fraction sticky in gate 7, so he'll require a touch of luck, but a very familiar rider is again aboard.He's quite well rated on his overall best with his previous win obtained of a much higher rating of 69.
#9 LUCKY PLANET has been average so far this campaign with two mediocre runs at Sha Tin over 1400m.He now ventures to Happy Valley for the first time, along with the blinkers going on, whilst reverting back in trip.He recently wore blinkers in a subsequent trial where he missed the start before thundering home to win.
#11 FLAMING EAGLE won his only Hong Kong race over this course and trip last season and was super competitive behind DENFIELD first up.That race should turn out to be a solid reference going forward and from the identical draw he'll be in the hunt.It's also worth noting jockey Karis Teetan had other options, if such desired, but opts to stay aboard for another attempt.

Selections : 2,1,4,9,11

R7 - 9,8,4,1,5

R8 - 5,8,12,6,1

R9 - 12,10,3,5,6

R10 - 7,4,1,11,8


Racing and Sports

Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au