3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive Preview of Happy Valley races.
Rail - A Course
Race 1
#2 NICE BIRDIE has been admirable at his past couple with a narrow win and defeated under rider Jerry Chau.
He'll need a touch of luck from the jump to find cover and avoid being caught wide but the 2200m is his ideal trip.
He did a massive amount of work during the run last start and was still there fighting at the end, so with a better run in transit he just about wins.
#7 FORTUNE TRIPLE has been ultra consistent this campaign but unfortunately draws poorly yet again.
Had he drawn gate six or lower in this event he'd be branded the roving banker with a fair amount of confidence.
Nevertheless, he retains the services of Mathew Chadwick who knows him particularly well, and if things pan out during the run he's good enough.
#10 GREEN LASER pulled a rabbit out of the hat recently when he charged home from near last to grab the cash.
It was his first win in Hong Kong after arriving Gp 1 placed from South Africa where he was a genuine and quality 3yo.
On that basis alone, the ability he holds within should have him winning quite a few more races going forward, or was it just a flash in the pan.
#8 DIAMOND WINNER is unfortunately poorly named because he's yet to salute the judge from twelve starts.
Conversely, he has been thereabouts this preparation and a lack of fitness won't be what brings him undone.
A good draw creates his opportunity to conserve, conserve and conserve energy throughout the long and winding run, and that maybe all it takes to break the ice.
#5 VINCY is the elder statesman of the field and just about ready to retire.
He's been in the system along time and is worthy of a nice grassy paddock to rest in once he's given the green light to rest.
The draw, class, course and distance stats plus 5lb claim suggest he must be in the finish, but does he still have the drive?
Selections : 2,7,10,8,5
R2 - 5,7,3,4,8
R3 - 5,10,4,3,12
R4 - 7,9,4,2,8
R5 - 6,7,1,12,11
R6 - 9,4,5,6,1
R7 - 10,12,7,5,1
R8 - 7,11,2,4,3
Race 9
#8 SIMPLY MAVERICK has recently recorded two impressive wins over this course and trip and now suddenly finds himself in the higher grade.
Another favourable barrier draw shall help him deal with the tougher opposition and the 10lb relief in weight wont go astray.
Connections also recently nominated him for this years Hong Kong Derby, so there's plenty of confidence about to suggest there's still better results to follow.
#6 LEAN HERO continues to develop his experience and strength and should be considered a major player.
What detracts from his chances this evening is the tricky barrier in gate eight.
However, a return to the Happy Valley mile following three hard runs over 1800m shall guarantee strength to the line.
He also holds a nomination for this years addition of the Hong Kong Derby.
#1 GALLANT WAKING is back racing at a high level and put on a dazzling display of frantic closing speed last start to win.
In fact, his last two runs have been superb, and if given the right type of pace he'll drop on them late and a win again.
A 5lb increase and change of rider are the negative factors to take into account, which is why he's slightly down the list.
#12 RED HARE KING has kept improving slowly through his current campaign and got away with another win last start.
He also now finds himself in a higher calibre of race and with the lightest of light weights to shoulder.
His natural tactical speed shall assure he positions handy to the speed, but I'm not quite convinced, at this point, that he has the bottom end power to win again.
#3 WINNING DRAGON could well be on assignment to lead this race, with minimal opposition for pace, and a wide gate to leave from over this tricky start point.
He pushed himself quite high in the handicaps last season after winning three races but has gradually come done to a more competitive handicap mark.
It's difficult to envisage the win but he can run a big race if left alone in front.
Selections : 8,6,1,12,3
