3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Sha Tin races.
Rail - C Course
Race 1
#1 SPLENDID STAR gets the crucial class drop into class 5, where he's done all his winning, while he gets the services of outstanding jockey Hugh Bowman for the first time. His last win came the last time that he was in this grade, and he's also proven over this course and distance. From barrier three, he'll get every chance in the run and looks the one to beat.
#13 STAR OF GLORY was beaten by the barrier draw last time out. He had to work in the early stages of the race, and after hitting the front in the home straight, he proved to be vulnerable late and was brave in finishing second. This time out, he's drawn significantly better in barrier one and he still gets in with a light weight. The main concern is the 1800m, but if he can handle the rise in trip, then he's a serious contender.
#11 SMART BEAUTY has been in terrific form, having won three starts ago. His last effort was a very good one as he was snagged back to the rear of the field and got home really strongly for fourth. The distance of 1800m is an unknown factor but the way that he finished off last time out suggests that it will be in his favour and if the race is setup for a swooper, it will bring him right into contention.
#6 COLOURFUL BARON has been remarkably consistent, he's got Zac Purton in the saddle and his sole victory in Hong Kong was over this course and distance. The draw looks awkward on face value but from the 1800m chute, Purton can take his time to find the right spot and is on a horse that's tactically versatile.
#5 M M NEBULA is on the back up after running second on the dirt last week. He has a nice drop in the weights thanks to the booking of Angus Chung, is drawn well in barrier four and is trained by leading trainer Pierre Ng. He's probably better suited on the dirt but he can still be competitive here.
Selections - 1,13,11,6,5
R2 - 4,2,5,3,14
R3 - 3,5,2,6,4
R4 - 5,9,2,1,4
R5 - 1,10,5,8,7
R6 - 4,3,7,2,10
Race 7
Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup
(Gp 1 - 1400m - Set Weights)
#1 LUCKY SWEYNESSE was disappointing last time out and he probably hasn't been at his absolute best this season, but he's worth another chance here. He was too good for his rivals two starts ago in the Hong Kong Sprint and then last time out, he was slow out of the gates and consequently settled too far back in the run. He still got home reasonably well, and his former jockey Zac Purton has publicly stated that he believes that the horse is now looking for a step up in distance, which he gets on this occasion. He's been freshened up; he's trialed well leading into this event and has James McDonald flying in for the ride. If he can perform near enough to his best, he'll be good enough to get the job done and in doing so, will bring up his fifth group one win.
#5 LUCKY WITH YOU has been in career best form and is a legitimate winning chance for mine. He ran a huge race to grab second behind Lucky Sweynesse two starts ago at $37 in the Hong Kong Sprint and then proved that that performance was no fluke by backing it up in the Centenary Sprint Cup, where he also finished second behind all the way winner, Victor The Winner. Although he conceded Victor too much of a start that day, he kept on coming to the line and the increase in distance to 1400m shouldn't be an issue for him. Off those two recent form references, he looms as the main danger to Lucky Sweynesse.
#3 BEAUTY ETERNAL gets his opportunity to win at group one level in this event as he's got a terrific record over 1400m and it's been noted by his rider Zac Purton that he's not quite as effective over 1600m. He still ran a great race over the mile behind Voyage Bubble in the Stewards' Cup, who has since franked the form by finishing second to Romantic Warrior in the Gold Cup. The step back in distance is clearly on his side and in a race where there's not a great deal of depth, he's got the necessary class to win this.
#2 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE ran second in this race last year in what was a great battle between him and Lucky Sweynesse. While Lucky Sweynesse may have come back slightly below his best this season, California Spangle has been a long way off his best this campaign. Nevertheless, there's a few runners in the race that lack group one class, Tony Cruz has made a gear change with the horse, he's drawn well and makes his own luck on the speed, while his last run behind Voyage Bubble wasn't too bad. He's entitled to still put in a competitive showing.
#8 SON PAK FU is an honest horse who got to the line well last time out in the Centenary Sprint Cup, indicating that the step up to 1400m won't be a problem for him and also proving that he's capable at Sha Tin, after his wins had all been at Happy Valley. He's drawn well in barrier four and looks like he'll get a charmed run in transit. For me, he's the best of the rest.
Selections - 1,5,3,2,8
R8 - 8,4,6,10,14
Race 9
#2 FIVE G PATCH is due for a win and this looks like the right race for him to break his run of outs. He hasn't had a lot of luck this season, he was caught wide in the Hong Kong Vase, was held up when he needed room at his next two runs, and then last time out he ran fifth in a strong renewal of the Hong Kong Gold Cup behind Romantic Warrior and Voyage Bubble. He's the class runner in what is a tricky race and he's got Hugh Bowman back aboard, who's got a very good record on the horse. There doesn't look to be a lot of pace in the race, so hopefully he doesn't get too far back in the run, but he's the best horse in this contest and deserves to win.
#3 HAPPY TOGETHER has been in really good form this season, highlighted by his success in the January Cup over this distance. I liked the way that he got to the line last time out at the Valley in race that wasn't really run to suit, and he'll appreciate the increase in distance to 1800m. Barrier two is significant as well as it will give jockey Alexis Badel options on a horse who's tactically versatile, in a race where there doesn't appear to be an abundance of speed. He's certainly a legitimate contender.
#14 SWEET ENCOUNTER is a great ride for young Aussie jockey Ben Thompson to pick up. Thompson rode his first winner in Hong Kong earlier this week and is on a winning hope here, as he's on a horse with a lightweight who can roll forward and give a great sight from up on the speed. Sweet Encounter's last run was full of merit as he took up a prominent position in the run and it took a classy horse in Super Sunny Sing to run him down. He's an ultra consistent galloper and certainly warrants strong consideration.
#1 SUPER SUNNY SING is a talented horse who loves this course and distance, as proven by his victory in last year's Hong Kong Classic Cup. He'd had excuses at his previous outings before his last run, where he settled towards the rear and finished over the top of his rivals to win, showing that he's still very much in form. The step up in distance will be in his favour but my concern is primarily the weight and where he could get to in the run from a wide draw and with the possibility that the pace won't be that strong. Nevertheless, if he can defy those factors, he's certainly a winning hope.
#13 NATURAL STORM is in very good form this season and stormed home to win last time out. Under the ratings band of this race, he gets in really well at the weights and boasts a terrific record over 1800m at Sha Tin. In what shapes as an open race, he's capable of racking up back to back wins, especially if they go at a genuine speed out in front.
Selections - 2,3,14,1,13
R10 - 3,4,5,11,7
