3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Sha Tin races.
Rail - C+3 Course
All Weather Track - Races 1,2,7
Race 1
#3 HAPPY TANGO might be getting on in years but he's racing well and he deserves another win. He's on the quick backup from Wednesday night at Happy Valley, where he settled up on the speed and boxed on well to finish third to Happy Horse. He has won on the back up before, he's drawn well and has an in form jockey in Brenton Avdulla onboard. He's also a proven performer on this surface, having won twice over the course and distance previously.
#1 SPANGLE FORTUNE knuckled down really strongly to score last time out, at what was his first victory in his Hong Kong career. He's still in class five despite that win and may have found the dirt to his liking, as that was just his second time racing on it last time out, so there's reason to think that he may have a few rating points in hand on this surface. He's drawn a better gate this time around in barrier five, so he should settle just off the pace and be right there at the business end of the race.
#4 VALIANT ELEGANCE warrants respect due to the class drop, as he's never finished out of the top three from five starts in this grade. Not only does he get the class drop, but he's also well weighted thanks to Ellis Wong's claim. He's a roarer, which is always going to be a concern, but he's in his right race, he'll make his own luck close to the pace and at this level, a competitive showing is expected.
#10 SUPER JOY pulled up with excuses last time out but he had been going well prior to that. He's had a freshen up, he's done what was needed of him at the barrier trials, and he has got a good record on the dirt. He's likely to get back in the run and if the speed is strong, look for him to be coming home hard.
#12 FORTUNE MASTER has been thereabouts at his recent assignments and has no weight on his back this time around. He's another horse that's likely to be getting back and running on. Jamie Richards has made a few gear adjustments with this horse and if they bring out that necessary improvement, he could find himself in with a winning chance.
Selections - 3,1,4,10,12
R2 - 5,4,9,2,6
R3 - 1,3,2,7,8
R4 - 1,8,6,2,10
R5 - 10,4,8,7,1
R6 - 9,6,2,1,10
Race 7
#3 VICTORY MOMENTS was an impressive winner last time out, sitting off the pace whilst covering ground before kicking away from his rivals and winning with a bit in hand on the line. That was his first run on the dirt, he beat a few key rivals that he'll meet again here, he's drawn a slightly better barrier and he only has three pounds more to carry on this occasion. If he repeats that last start effort, he looks the main chance in this contest.
#6 FAST BUCK has a super record on the all weather track and has won two of his last three starts. Those wins may have been in class four but as a result of this rise in class, he gets in nicely at the weights. He also is drawn to get a lovely run in transit from the inside gate, he'll be ridden by Brenton Avdulla and is trained by champion horseman John Size. Expect him to go close again.
#4 SMOKEY BEAR ran on well behind Victory Moments last time out and meets him better off at the weights this time around. He's drawn a much better gate, Zac Purton is sticking with him and he loves racing on the dirt. If he reproduces his last run, then he's one of the winning chances in this contest.
#7 GOOD BUDDY produced a similar run to Smokey Bear last time out and like that horse, he's better off at the weights and at the barrier draw in this race. He's racing well and has Alexis Badel onboard once again, who gets along well with him. It wouldn't surprise to see him take out this event.
#9 SKY FOREVER actually started as the favourite in the race that Victory Moments won last time out. He recorded a dominant victory over this course and distance two starts ago, while at his latest outing, he didn't have a heap of clear galloping room but still found the line well. He's only got a light weight to carry, he's likely to get back and if the pace is genuine and he gets luck in running, he'll make his presence felt.
Selections - 3,6,4,7,9
R8 - 10,7,1,4,2
Race 9
#10 YOUNG CHAMPION is a progressive horse who won well last time out and has further rating points in hand. He's done a terrific job from his two starts thus far in Hong Kong, he's got a good turn of foot, a strong will to win and is prepared by outstanding trainer John Size. He's been allocated a light weight for this assignment, and while the barrier looks tricky on face value, there should be enough speed on for him to settle one off the fence. While a lot of his rivals are more experienced and fairly exposed, he's the horse in the race that looks to be destined for better things.
#8 LUCKY ENCOUNTER brings really strong form lines from his last few starts behind horses like Helios Express, Galaxy Patch and Howdeepisyourlove. This is an easier race that doesn't have the same depth to what he's been competing in lately, and he'd been in winning form up until those losses at his last three starts. He's drawn well, has a light weight and an in form jockey on in Andrea Atzeni. He looks the main danger to Young Champion.
#5 DANCING CODE has been beaten as the favourite at his last two starts but 1650m at Happy Valley may have been a bridge too far for him and the race probably wasn't run to suit him, while then he was stuck in traffic two starts ago. A step back in trip to 1400m and a slight drop in grade should assist him here and on his overall form this season, he's capable in a race like this.
#6 BLUE MARLIN has had an outstanding season for trainer Douglas Whyte, winning four races and with a light weight and a good barrier draw, he looks to be a winning hope once again. However, he only just got up to win last time out even though he was given a perfect ride by Hugh Bowman, and given that he's risen from 59 to 83 in the ratings this season, I've just got a slight concern that the handicapper might be catching up with him. If he can defy the handicapper and find that slight bit of improvement though, he could be a contender.
#11 I GIVE is another horse that's had an outstanding season with six wins, but the handicapper has certainly caught up with him, as demonstrated by his two recent defeats. 1400m is an unknown factor for him as he's done his winning over 1200m, but he's likely to get an uncontested lead, the track should advantage leaders with the rail out, he has no weight to worry about and should at least give a sight out in front.
Selections - 10,8,5,6,11
R10 - 9,2,14,1,4
