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International form expert Tim Carroll takes a look at the World Cup programme in Dubai on Saturday night where Australian runners Music Magnate, Faatinah and Illustrious Lad contest the Al Quoz Sprint.

G1 AL QUOZ SPRINT 1200M TURF

Music Magnate has to be included among the chances if he can return to the form he showed when winning the Doomben 10,000 and the Expressway Stakes. We haven’t seen him since he won a Listed contest at Randwick in December, but he’s a horse who runs well fresh, and he has subsequently won two barrier trials. It will be the first time he’s travelled away from home, which is always a concern, but the Australian horses have a good record in this race with both Buffering and Ortensia recent winners, albeit when it was a 1000m race. It’s unlikely Bjorn Baker would be taking this 6yo all the way to Dubai, when there are so many valuable sprints in Australia unless he was confident in the horses condition and ability.

Blue Point was a Group 3 winner in Europe last year, and took the scalp of the world’s highest rated sprinter, Harrys Angel, at Ascot last May before running third to Caravaggio and Harrys Angel in the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal meeting. He made his reappearance, and showed he was on song when second, beaten a head, to the highly rated Ertijaal over 1000m here last month. With a run under his belt and with the extra furlong in his favour, he should be able to turn that form around and looks a major player.

Ertijaal has been the best turf sprinter based in Dubai for some time. He’s a classy horse and was second in this race to the Australian warrior, Buffering, two years ago, when the race was run over 1000m, before a gutsy third last year when the rain put paid to his chances. You would never write him off on the straight course, but he’s always looked better over 1000m, and was beaten easily enough by Jungle Cat over 1200m here last time.

Jungle Cat, a stable companion of Blue Point, was to strong for Ertijaal when winning by 2.25L over this trip last time out. It’s worth noting, that’s the first time he’s finished in front of Ertijaal in four meetings. Granted, that could be partly down to Ertijaal regressing, but visually it was an impressive performance with no excuses for the beaten brigade, which includes several who will re-oppose here. He was fourth to Buffering in this race in 2016, and the fourth again last year to The Right Man. It’s a race that suits him as he runs his best in races when they go quickly from the start, and that’s exactly what they will do in this. Its also a race that seasoned sprinters have a good record in, with Ortensia, Sole Power and Buffering winning the race as older horses, and Jungle Cat, now a 6yo, is sure to run well again.

Others;

Baccarat is a 9yo now, but was a recent winner of a handicap and was only 3 lengths behind Jungle Cat last time. He’s a hold up type who needs something to aim at and he’ll get that here. Librisa Breeze was last seen winning the Group 1 Champions Sprint at Ascot. He’s now rated 119, which makes him a serious player, but he won on testing ground at Ascot, and his best form is over further.

Selection- Jungle Cat

G1 GOLDEN SHAHEEN 1200M DIRT

Mind Your Biscuits returns to defend the crown he won in dominating fashion last year. However his form fell away in the second half of 2017, and he’s now on a recovery mission. He tuned up for this when second as a short price favourite in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in early February. No doubt he will be far sharper for the run, but he needs to prove he can hit the same heights he was this time last year. He normally likes to close late, and that worked for him last year when the rain came and the closers dominated the dirt races. However on quick ground, which is likely this year, the dirt favours those on the pace, and that wont help his chances.

Roy H was crowned Eclipse champion US sprinter after his powerhouse display when winning the Breeders Sprint, where he had Mind Your Biscuits 4 lengths back in third. His improvement last year was significant, and he’s only tasted defeat once since 2016. He warmed up for this at Santa Anita where he demonstrated he was in rude health, winning by 4 lengths with a bit in hand. He’s a horse who likes to go forward, and that is definitely the place to be on the dirt. He looks a worthy favourite here.

X Y Jet was second in this race as favourite in 2016. He only had one run in 2017 before knee surgery ended the campaign. He’s had two runs back this year in minor black type sprints and won both of them. Whilst there is far more depth here, he showed he was back to his best, running lightning fast sectionals and nearly breaking the race record when he won by 7 lengths at Tampa Bay recently. The big grey is a speed merchant, and he will make a play for the lead, like he did in 2016, when he probably went to quick. If he can draw a low marble and grab the fast lane on the rail, he could be very difficult to catch.

D B Pins is the fascinating runner in this. He’s based in Hong Kong with John Size, who is having an incredible year, even by his lofty standards, and was hugely impressive when he won the G1 Centenary Sprint at Sha Tin last time. Impressive, as he sat wide the entire trip them proceeded to pick off some of the best sprinters in Hong Kong, and that’s not easy to do at the top level in Hong Kong. He goes onto the dirt here, but he’s had one start on the dirt at Sha Tin when he hacked up in a Class 2 race last year, and whilst this race has far more depth, at least we know he acts on the surface. He hasn’t found an easy target for his first International Group 1 assignment, but he’s a strong powerful sprinter, who still looks to be on a upward trajectory, and he could just surprise a few here.

Jordan Sport was formerly a solid handicapper for David Simcock in the UK. He then transferred to the Fawzi Nass yard and won one from four local runs on the turf here at Meydan. However things went ‘boom’ when they tried him on the dirt last time and he won a G3 race ploughing a field by 7 lengths. In the process he had Yalta, a 5length winner at his previous start, back in second. Visually it was as impressive as any performance we’ve seen on the dirt all year. But what was even more striking was that he stopped the clock at 1:10:18, a time quick enough to win the last three renewals of the Golden Shaheen. The trainer won this race with another modestly performed turf horse, Krypton Factor, in 2012, and it could be a case of history repeating itself. Jordan Sport looks a natural dirt horse, he has abundant speed and although meeting the might of the Americans here, his sectionals from last time are simply to good to ignore, and at big odds, he looks a cracking each way bet.

Others;

Muarrab won this race in 2016 before bombing badly on the rain soaked track last year. He won a Listed race here on his reappearance three back, but has been beaten at his last two, although there were excuses last time. Not getting any younger, and needs to bounce back, but very good on his day.

Selection- Jordan Sport (eachway)

G1 DUBAI WORLD CUP 2000M DIRT

Forever Unbridled is a tough quality mare and will be having her first start since winning the Distaff at the Breeders last year. It’s unusual to see a mare entered for the race, and none have won it. But she’s a strongly built type, who won’t be bossed by the boys. However, she’s usually ridden cold, and unless it rains, like it did last year, it’s basically impossible to come from the second half of the field to win on the dirt. Whilst I think its great to see Dallas Stewart and connections send her around, I don’t think the dirt bias here at Meydan will suit her racing pattern.

Talismanic is the intriguing runner in the race. Last seasons Breeders Cup Turf hero has been tuned up for this with a fine display when he accounted for Sheema Classic hopeful (and Arc 2nd) Cloth Of Stars on the poly track at Chantilly recently, a meeting that has produced Meydan winners Solow and Cirrus Des Aigles in recent years. Connections are now convinced he is better at 2000m, a theory that looks plausible. He’s a horse who can travel close to the speed and has a turn of foot, something he was able to use to good effect in last years Breeders Turf when he out sprinted Highland Reel on the tight track at Del Mar.

They have elected to take to him onto the dirt for the first time, but being a Godolphin horse, who have won this race 6 times, chances are his trainer, Andre Fabre, was given little choice. Will he be as effective on dirt? We wont know for sure until we see the race, but he has a high knee action you associate with dirt horses, and being by Medaglia d’Oro, there is plenty in his pedigree to suggest he will act on it. But the Americans are the kings on dirt, and horses with better credentials than Talismanic, such as So You Think, have been beaten in this race.

West Coast will be having his first run since finishing a game runner up to Gun Runner in the Pegasus Stakes. The Bob Baffert trained 4yo won five on the bounce last year, including the Pennsylvania Derby and the Travers Stakes, before finishing placed behind Gun Runner in both the Breeders and The Pegasus. His run that day was exceptional, at the top of the straight it looked as if he would pick up Gun Runner, before last years American horse of the year pulled away late to win by just over 2L. Significantly, West Coast was 10L plus clear of the others, including some of the best horses in America, and that’s the best form on offer here. His figures have improved at his last three runs, so there could be more to come, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won this race three times, and knows the type of horse you need. Finally, his racing pattern is suited to the front running bias we see here on the dirt. He doesn’t need to lead, but he will go forward, and from there the race should set up nicely for him.

Others;

It will be interesting to see which way they elect go with North America, but if he lines up here he could make a bold bid for victory from the front. Gunnevera is reportedly working well Stateside after treatment for a partially descended testicle. According to connections he’s in the best shape of his life. But even with his testicles back in the right spot, he was a long way behind West Coast in the Pegasus, and his usually ridden cold, which is not suited here.

Selection – West Coast

G1 SHEEMA CLASSIC 2400M TURF

Cloth Of Stars will go off favourite despite the fact he’s yet to win in four spins over 2400m, although he did perform well in defeat over the trip when second to champion filly Enable in last years Arc. But last years Arc, Enable aside, had very few genuine world-class 2400m horses engaged, and the winner won easily. The son of Sea The Stars has always shown ability on the track, but didn’t do himself justice as a younger horse due to mental immaturity, but he looks a more complete article now. He made his seasonal reappearance when second to stable companion Talismanic on the poly-track at Chantilly last month, and that run will have brought him for this. His owned by Godolphin, who have won this race three times, and he’s trained by a master horseman in Andre Fabre, but he looks a tad short in the betting for a horse who is 0 from 4 over the trip and is only 1 from 5 at Group 1 level.

Poets Word represents Sir Michael Stoute, who won this race with the brilliant Fantastic Light in 2000. He’s a lightly raced 5yo, who has only been tried at the top level at his last three runs. He ran second to Decorated Knight in the Irish Champions Stakes before running second again to boom colt Cracksman, albeit it beaten 7 lengths, in the Champion Stakes at Ascot. He was then well held in The Hong Kong Cup at Sha Tin in December, but there were genuine excuses for any horse ridden off the pace that day. He’s yet to really prove himself over 2400m, with his sole win coming at Goodwood in a Group 3 contest when he beat up on 105-110 types. There were mix messages from connections afterwards with the racing manager suggesting the trainer would like to campaign him over 2000m but the owner wanted him tried at 2400m. He’s a horse who has been brought along slowly, and it would be no surprise if there was further improvement here.

Hawkbill is a tough 5yo from the Charlie Appleby yard. He made his seasonal reappearance in a 2400m Group 2 race on Super Saturday and proved to strong for stable companion Frontiersman. The Sheema Classic is a far tougher test, and he will need to improve, but the reports were he was only 85% ready for his first up run, and he will strip fitter here. He’s a European G1 winner, with his biggest success to date being the 2016 Eclipse at Sandown, and he’s a horse who runs a strong 2400m. He shouldn’t be underestimated in this.

Reys De Oro was voted 3yo of the year in his native Japan last year, which was highlighted by his win in the Derby in May, followed by a gallant second in the Japan Cup in November. It takes an exceptional 3yo to beat the older horses in the Cup, only two have been able to do it in the last 16 renewals, and his effort in behind Cheval Grand, when he was one spot in front of the brilliant Kitasan Black, was outstanding. His run in the Derby was equally impressive but for slightly different reasons. He was asked to make an early move from mid pack to sit up outside the leader in the big field of 18 runners, but he was still able to find plenty under pressure and repel all challenges when Christophe Lemaire asked him for a second effort. He arrives here having been turned over when third as a short priced favourite in a Group 2 contest in February. But it was evident he wasn’t fully wound up for the assignment, and he will strip fitter for the Sheema Classic. Like most Japanese horses he relishes firm ground, which he’s likely to get here, and provided he adjusts to his new surroundings, he should play a key part in a race Japan have already won three times.

Others;

Satono Crown has already proven himself on the international stage, winning the Hong Kong Vase under Joao Moreira in 2016. His form back home includes winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen and second to champion Kitasan Black in the Autumn Tenno Sho. Joao Moreira has ridden an incredible 14 winners from just 32 rides (44%) for his trainer Noriyuki Hori.

Selection- Reys De Oro

G2 UAE DERBY 1900M DIRT

Mendelssohn, last years Breeders Cup Juvenile turf winner, made a winning return at Dundalk on the all weather recently. Afterwards trainer Aiden Obrien confirmed a trip to Dubai for the UAE Derby, and depending on how he performed, he would then possibly head onto Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. He looked in need of the run on his return, but he did everything right, he travelled nicely and let down well. Aiden O’Brien has won this race twice and although Mendelssohn has never been on dirt, being by Scat Daddy, there’s plenty of dirt form in his pedigree, and the favourite aside, he doesn’t have much to beat here.

Gold Town has been the star of the 3yo division at this year’s Carnival. Charlie Appleby’s colt won the 2000 Guineas by 10 lengths when last seen, and the winner of that has gone on to win the Derby six times. He was visually impressive in the Guineas and that was supported on the clock. Straight afterwards connections announced that he would be supplemented for the Kentucky Derby, a route fellow Godolphin inmate Thunder Snow went down last year. This will be his first try beyond 1600m, but he certainly wasn’t stopping in The Guineas, and being a Street Cry, there’s plenty to say he will enjoy the extra trip in his pedigree. This is a race Godolphin have farmed over the years, winning 8 of the 18 renewals, and this year it looks a match in two on paper, but course experience and dirt form gives Gold Town the edge.

Others;

Its impossible to get away from the top two in the betting here, but if there was to be an upset its most likely to come from Threeandfourpence who was only just behind his stable companion, Mendelssohn, at Dundalk last time, when he showed a bit of speed, which can only help him here.

Selection – Gold Town

G2 DUBAI GOLD CUP 3200M TURF

Ascot Gold Cup hero Big Orange returns for another tilt at the Dubai Gold Cup, having been runner up in 2016 and fourth last year, both times behind Vazirabad. However this year he arrives a fresh horse, bypassing international campaigns that had previously taken in The Melbourne Cup and The Hong Kong Vase, which will probably help him as he’s won several times first up in the past. A lot will depend on the final make up off the field, he’s a big strong horse who likes to go along on the front, and if left alone he could take plenty of pegging back. He very much prefers quick ground, which he will get here, and looks a major player in a decent looking contest.

Vazirabad is back and will be looking to win this race for the third time. He’s been regarded as one of the leading stayers in the world for the last couple of years and incredibly, has only been outside of the first two on one occasion since June 2015, and that was when they sent him over 2400m. He was beaten here first up last time, but he was turned over in the same race last year before going on to win the big one, and he wasn’t given the most aggressive ride by Soumillion on his seasonal reappearance. Being a rare Aga Khan owned gelding, they’ve never been afraid of defeat, and Alain Royer-Dupre will have left himself plenty to work with and will have the son of Manduro at the top of his game on race day.

Rare Rhythm turned over Vazirabad here in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy on Super Saturday, and it was difficult not to be impressed, even if Vazirabad was given a ride that looked more like a trial. The two horses had it to themselves and pulled a long way clear of the others, thus both runs look rock solid. He may have even caught connections by surprise, as originally he was been aimed at the Sydney Cup, but those plans were shelved after the win. He steps up to 3200m for the first time, and he needs to prove himself at the trip, but he’s a tough horse with few miles on the clock, he possesses a handy turn of foot, and he gives the impression he will stay. And let’s not forget, he was first up after nearly 8 months last time, so he’s entitled to improve as much if not more than several others. He’s likely to sit in front of Vazirabad in the run, and could prove very tough to get by. I don’t think there will be much between them here, and at the prices it could pay to have a play on the Rare Rhythm, from the red hot Charlie Appleby yard.

Others;

Another race where it’s impossible to get away from the top few in the betting. Sheikhzayed Road is a decent stayer on his day, and did win both the Doncaster Cup and the Long Distance Cup on Champions day at Ascot in 2016. But he was 9 lengths behind Rare Rhythm last time, hasn’t won for 19 months and has a bit to find on ratings.

Selection- Rare Rhythm

G 2 GODOLPHIN MILE 1600M DIRT

Kimbear made it two wins from four spins here last time when making all to win a Group 3 over this trip. He had Heavy Metal nearly 2 lengths back in fourth, but was able to bag the fast lane on the paint from the low draw in 1. However, he was strong on the line, having been headed at one point, and if he can bag the rail again, a repeat could be on the cards. He’s now two from three over the mile here, which looks to be his best trip, and no doubt leading trainer Doug Watson well have him spot on for this.

Economic Model from the Chad Brown yard was game winner of a Grade 3 race over this trip last time out when he had Grade 1 performer and Belmont Stakes second, Irish War Cry in behind. That may be slightly flattering as it was over a trip shy of Irish War Cry’s best, but still represents a solid piece of form in the context of the race. If you go back through his profile he was runner up to brilliant sprinter Drefong over 1400m last year as a 3yo, when he had Golden Shaheen winner Mind Your Biscuits well in behind. But he’s also been beaten at Allowance Optional Claimer level, and this will be his first time away from home. But he arrives here in form, he has the type of speed you need here, and looks a strong contender on his best American form.

Heavy Metal has been a revelation ever since leaving Mark Johnston and campaigning here in Dubai. He’s now won 7 races on the dirt, a track that suits his front running style. There’s no secret to him, he will jump quickly, look for the lead and try to out run them. He won the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge at the start of the carnival, and he had both Thunder Snow and North America in behind that day, although North America had genuine excuses in defeat. He was then in behind Thunder Snow over 1900m, when they toyed with the idea of running him in the World Cup. They quickly abandoned that plan, dropped him back to Group 3 race over 1600m, he made all to win by 9 lengths before running fourth last time when a beaten favourite in behind Kimbear. He looked all over the winner that day, having gone past Kimbear at the top of the straight, but stopped very late on. However, he drew out in 13, whilst the winner drew 1, and he had to sit on the outside. His best chance here is to draw low, bag the fast lane on the rail and employ “catch me if you can” tactics.

Others;

Difficult to know for sure exactly who will line up here, which potentially will impact on how the race sets up. It looks like both Thunder Snow and North America will head in to the Dubai World Cup, but if either lined up they would be serious contenders, although I would lean toward the speedy North America, who would be my top pick in the race if they elected to go that way.

Selection- Heavy Metal

G1 DUBAI TURF 1800M TURF

Vivlos was a surprise 14/1 winner of this race last year, and is back to defend her crown, something that’s never been done. She had shown a decent level of ability in Japan prior to that, having won a G1 race there in October. However she has been turned over in three subsequent runs, including when unplaced first up in a Group 2 race at Nakayama in February. She’s following exactly the same path she did last year, although she didn’t look as sharp first up this time. When she won this last year it was on rain effected ground, and whilst she’s proven to be highly effective on the firm tracks in Japan, I just wonder if she was helped by so many of his opposition not enjoying the ground. But she shouldn’t be underestimated, and she has won two of his last three times when second up from a lay off. But Joao Moreira rode her last year, and jumps off to ride Neorealism here, which is a clue in itself.

Neorealism, who hails from Japan, has plenty of ability, but it doesn’t always translate to performance. If we knew he would be on his best behaviour, he would be the horse to flag up here. He was disappointing when last seen in the Hong Kong Cup, he took a tug and over raced, but despite all of this, he was still good enough to run third. Earlier in the year he had won a Group 2 race at Nakayama, with Vivlos back in 5th, before winning the QEII at Sha Tin. This trip suits him, as will the predicted firm ground, and as mentioned above, it’s a big vote of confidence that Joao Moreira has jumped off last year’s winner to take the ride. If he turns up with his ‘A’ game, he will take plenty of stopping in this, but it’s a big ‘ if ’.

Blair House surprised at 16/1 last time when he won the Group 1 Jebbel Hatta from the favourite and fellow Godolphin inmate, Benbatl. He was given a perfect

ride by James Doyle, who never left the paint until late in the piece. But we shouldn’t detract from the victory too much, he showed a decent turn of foot when asked to go and he won pulling away with a bit left in the locker. He arrived in tip-top form, having won a decent enough handicap smoothly the start before. In hindsight, being that the Chalrie Appleby yard are in such good form, he was well over priced. It remains to be seen if he can do it again at this level, and he has a little bit to find with a few of these on the ratings, but he ran a career best last time, and there could be more to come.

Benbatl at the time of writing was the favourite for the race, and he certainly has strong credentials. He was second behind the re-opposing Blair House in the Group 1 Jebel Hatta on Super Saturday, however he was planted wide throughout and the run was better than the bare form would suggest. Prior to that he had won two from two here at the carnival, and both of them were comfortable victories. Last year he won the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot, and that’s a race that has thrown up some decent Group 1 types in recent years, including Hawkbill, Time Test and Cannock Chase. Provided he gets his fair share of luck here, he should take all the beating.

Others;

Lancaster Bomber, Deauville and War Decree may make the trip, and represent Aiden O’Brien and Ballydoyle. War Decree looks up against it on form, but Lancaster Bomber and Deauville would be of interest here. The former hasn’t won since taking out his maiden in 2016, but in that time he’s been placed behind Breeders Mile turf winner, World Approval, the brilliant Churchill, and Barney Roy. Whilst the latter has run some decent races on the world stage and was placed in last years Queen Anne Stakes

Selection- Benbatl