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Table Bay can prove his Selangor form all wrong by taking the R1m, Group 1 Grand Parade Cape Guineas (1600m) at Kenilworth on Saturday.
But it’s not a given and Anton Marcus’s mount faces some formidable challengers, notably Gold Standard and the Dingaans pair Singapore Sling and Heavenly Blue.
The jury – at least the handicappers and most punters – is still out on why the favourite ran so far below his Cape Classic best last time but Joey Ramsden has never wavered from his belief that his horse was too close to the pace in a race that was run too fast. This time A New Dawn will be asked to go even quicker so that Table Bay can be positioned further back.
Ramsden, who won this with Variety Club in 2011 and Act Of War two years ago, has on this occasion abandoned his usual practice of taking the horse to Kenilworth for his final gallop.
“Table Bay had a hard race last time,” he explains. “So I have freshened him up and he has been doing well.”
Is the trainer afraid of anything else? “Not really, no,” he answers although the stats are not in his favour – six of the last eight Guineas favourites have been beaten.
Neither Glen Kotzen nor Richard Fourie has ever won this race but the pair are in inspired form and 7-1 chance Gold Standard has won his last three. His trainer’s optimism is readily understandable – “Gold Standard’s times have improved like you can’t believe and I really do think he has a big shout.”
In the Dingaans Singapore Sling and Heavenly Blue raced almost together and pulled clear in the final furlong where Geoff Woodruff’s charge proved just over a length the better. Heavenly Blue has a bad draw yet – presumably because the Mike de Kock factor – he is the shorter of the pair at 13-2. That said, Singapore Sling’s chance is not helped by Gavin Lerena being ruled out after falling foul of the Hong Kong authorities.
Craven has been backed from 16-1 to 10-1 and he could have a better chance than Selangor runner-up Edict Of Nantes who is severely handicapped by a wide draw. “They have worked together, there is not much between them and Craven has been doing very well at home,” says Brett Crawford.
Africa Rising has been backed from 12-1 to 8-1 to give Sean Tarry another big race winner and it’s worth bearing in mind that S’Manga Khumalo’s mount was badly drawn when only sixth to stable companion Sage Harbour in the Lanzerac Ready To Run.
Zodiac Ruler is also in single figures with World Sports Betting despite a disappointing effort in the Lanzerac. “He got too far back and he couldn’t get a run up the short straight,” reckons Justin Snaith. “It will be a different story with the longer run-in although he still has to contend with a bad draw.”
Snaith also fancies 12-1 shot Bishop’s Bounty – “He was unlucky in the Ready To Run, he has been doing well and I think he is very underestimated. He is the dark horse of the race.”
Some punters reckon that Elevated is that and have already backed him from 50-1 to 33-1. He has been deliberately kept off the course since his second to Table Bay in the Classic. “He has blossomed at the right time,” reports Riaan van Reenen. “His draw (14) is a killer but if Greg Cheyne can overcome it I think he will be in the first four.”
Hack Green (16-1) has never raced beyond 1 200m (Dennis Drier: “On pedigree he should get the trip and I think he will”) but 14-1 Gunner’s Premier Champions win has not been enhanced by his two races since two while William Longsword is another who has to contend with a bad draw.
