3 minute read
It is a funny old world us racing fans who live in with the UK with either abandoned or postponed because of snow or frost, Dubai because of wind, South Africa because of rain, and Australia because it is too hot – whatever lies in store for us punters next I wonder.
On the positive side, good to see that Timeform are now adding their three best selections for each day of the South African racing as interest booms over here in the racecards from the Rainbow Nation.
I know I shouldn’t, but I am already looking forward to the Durban July a full four months plus in advance, and I cannot suggest strongly enough to add it to your “bucket list”, either for racing or just for the party, but before then we have a few more meetings to make some spending money from starting this afternoon at our old friend Scottsville.
This week we have a relatively subdued offering with just the eight races, and if the going remains Good to Soft as predicted, then we should have some competitive action with a few likely to head in to our notebooks for future reference, though I do notice the weather forecast is not quite as sunny as my disposition.
At the risk of looking even more stupid than normal, I am a great believer that newcomers are rarely 100% race fit on their debuts by definition with a good gallop is just no substitute for a race on the track.
If that assumption is correct, then the softer going will test them all the more and leaves me happily opposing the “talking horses” in the maidens and my bets will be there this afternoon in the never-ending hunt for a bit of value against those accursed bookmakers.
In the opener at 11:05am UK time (13:05pm local time), all eyes including mine will be on the unraced Varallo who cost a big ZAR2,000,000 at the sales, or about £120,000 which is a big purchase price in South African terms.
A son of Var he may well end up a lot better than all of these in the long terms but add inexperience to the going concerns already mentioned and I will be backing Hoppertunity instead, the only horse in the field who has run before.
Easy to back at Greyville, he drifted from 7/1 to 15/1 by the time the stalls opened but ran better than his odds suggested to finish third, beaten six and three quarter lengths at the line but looking as if the experience would do him the world of good.
Argo Magic took the race that day and has won again since so the form looks above average, and with the Gavin van Zyl yard ticking over nicely he looks well worth a bet this afternoon, however small.
For my second and only other suggestion, repeat the text and pretty much change the names! In the fillies and mares maiden that follows at 11:40am (UK time), 13:40 local time, the world and his wife seem to know how highly regarded Dennis Drier’s Dream De Ra is, but she is another who could get caught out for race fitness on this ground on her track debut.
A daughter of Oasis Dream out of Val De Ra I would have to question her on this going regardless, but if the media hype makes a bigger price about Rainbowinthesky, I won’t be arguing.
Again, I am big enough to admit that in the long terms she may well end up as the better horse and by some margin, but my selection has the all-important experience in the book with a seventh over this course and distance in September and a very good length and three quarters second to Vision To Kill here over a furlong shorter when last seen in October.
The winner that day has gone in again since while the eighth also won next time out, which can only be seen as encouraging although I am wary that she has not been seen in four months. The Duncan Howells yard is hitting the magic 10% winners from runners mark of late while jockey Keagan De Melo heads the recent jockey chart with plenty of winners and is riding at the top of his game, hopefully making for a very potent combination this afternoon.
