3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Wednesday's Kensington meeting. Selections based on a heavy track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:15PM GOLDEN MILE @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Keen on 3. Megastar Heart, who raced well on debut at Kembla Grange 18 days ago and expecting him to improve sharply from that race experience. After chasing a fast tempo and accelerating hard, the colt's effort had merit, and he went down fighting to finish second. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and the margin spread throughout confirmed the quality. He has come in on a strong base figure, and all key indicators suggest he can only step off that performance with the rise in trip being ideal. In addition, he can roll forward, have first use of the track and take some catching.
Dangers: 1. Smashing Time is an improving type who savaged the line to breakthrough for his maiden win at Kembla Grange last start and clocked the fastest final 200m split of the meeting. He is proven at the distance, and a subsequent winner has since confirmed that form. 2. Mr Artemisia wasn't suited over 1100m first-up, and he built through his gears well and found the line strongly. He is proven on the rain-affected ground, and James McDonald rides from the inside gate. Stablemate 7. Imperialist comes through the same race, and he ran hidden closing splits after being restrained from a wide draw. He has the closing speed to run over the top of them late. Add 5. Dark Arts to wider exotics.
How to play it: Megastar WIN ($3.10 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 12:50PM DRINKWISE PLATE (1400 METRES)
Leaning towards 12. Wild Gypsy, who solid in defeat on debut at Kembla Grange 18 days ago when finishing second. The filly only had one trial leading into that event and certainly will have come on significantly from a fitness perspective. She showed gate speed, natural pace, and although she wanted to pull throughout, she never shirked her task to the line. Further, she finished behind Pippie Beach, who subsequently won a F&M Benchmark 72 in town. She receives a gear change to help with her manners, but any improvement from her last start effort from a figure's perspective will put her in the finish. Each-way.
Dangers: 6. Eraantyva had too much to do on debut at Canterbury, and her run had sectional merit. The Chris Waller-trained runner was restrained from a wide draw and had to make a long sustained run, but to her credit, she kept wanting to find the line. She clocked some of the meeting's fastest closing splits and will have benefited from the race experience. 13. Sweet Heaven is a knockout chance who will appreciate the trip rise and can settle closer from the soft gate. Market watch on both 11. Vivezza and 5. Cheergal who both resume and are on-pace types.
How to play it: Wild Calm E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 1:25PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
1. Franz Joseph is a nice type, and he went out on a career peak figure last prep and did it in style. The three-year-old had every chance leading at a very slow pace, but he recorded a high rating last section relative to the day after adjustments. He's had two trials leading into this, giving him a solid platform, and he can sprint fresh from the soft draw with Nash Rawillier riding for the first time.
Dangers: Liked the way how sprinted on debut, and the clock backed up his visual acceleration. He knuckled down hard late with an improvers action, indicating he can step off that effort. James McDonald rides, and he has the ability to run over the top of his rivals. 3. Need Some Luck profiles well for this, with all three of his career starts having merit. He is wound up, and expect him to run boldly. 11. Lulumon is in career-best form, and add 5. Vanquished who will roll forward.
How to play it: Franz Joseph WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 2:00PM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
5. The Great Houdini represents value, and he is ready to peak third-up with the step back in distance suiting. The gelding was solid first-up in the Wyong Provincial-Midway Championships Qualifier (1350m) and then had genuine excuses last start at this track. He wasn't suited to the sit/sprint race shape and then was checked/blocked at key stages, but once clear, he found the line well. Additionally, his sectional breakdown confirms the 1250m will be to his benefit. He is proven on the rain-affected ground and has the closing speed to run over the top of his rivals. Each-way.
Dangers: 2. Bill The Boxer is an interesting runner who failed first-up but can bounce back with a much more favourable setup. He maps to control the speed; Nash Rawiller rides; he's proven on wet ground, and the blinkers come off. Key late market watch. 1. Mars Mission must carry a hefty weight, but he hit the line hard first-up at Canterbury and ran fast closing splits. The late market trade suggested he would improve from the run and the bigger track suits. 3. Rebel Shadow revels in the conditions, and James McDonald rides.
How to play it: The Great Houdini E/W ($8.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 2:35PM OLE KIRK FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
7. Star Impact was racing in career-best form before spelling last prep, and she'll still have residual fitness from that campaign after only 67 days of the scene. She looks primed to sprint fresh here and gets conditions to suit her, as well as the benefit of gear change. The mare has had the one trial leading at Wyong, where she wasn't extended and went through the line full of energy under a tight grip. In addition, all her peak figures have come on rain-affected ground, and she maps to roll forward and control the speed. Each-way.
Dangers: 5. Oh Golly Gosh is another runner at odds who can improve sharply here out to a more suitable trip. She ran hidden closing splits first-up at her home track, and expecting her to be ridden like she did when winning second-up last prep. 9. Silent Raindrops sprinted hard first-up at Wyong in testing conditions and peaked on her run late. She will come on from that and will be savaging the line. 2. Ningaloo Star runs to a consistent figure that puts her in the finish and maps well. The claim suits for 3. Smart Little Miss and add 13. Proud Image to wider exotics.
How to play it: Star Impact E/W ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 3:10PM HITOTSU @ ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
3. Jacob's Time drops significantly here in grade and is racing much better than the form guide reads. He was the victim of circumstances two starts back in the Group 3 Carbine Club (1600m) and ran on well from an impossible position. The gelding then battled on ok after always facing the breeze in a high-rating Group 3 Frank Packer Plate (2000m). His figures line up well on heavy ground; the step back to 1800m is ideal, and he can bounce back into the winner's stall here.
Dangers: 4. Cable Express is lightly raced and on an upwards ratings spiral this preparation. He kept trying to the line last start at Wagga and deserves his chance at the metropolitan level. 7. Frankly Elegant finally gets out to a more suitable distance and can peak third-up. 6. Condrieu is a consistent enough type, and 11. She's Got Veuve is another runner suited back in trip.
How to play it: Jacob's Time WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 3:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
Like 8. Zerkhan, who represents value here, and he can bounce back with a much more favourable setup. The colt won in style first-up at Hawkesbury and smashed the clock going through the line full of energy. Happy to forgive his second-up run at Wyong, where he started odds-on, but he didn't handle the tight-turning track and raced flat. The blinkers go back on, and the rise to 1800m is ideal. Expect him to be ridden with cover, allowing him to be more explosive over the concluding stages. Good each-way.
Dangers: 3. Naval Comission was too strong for his opposition last start at Scone and produced a high-rating last sectional after adjustments. Nash Rawiller takes over riding duties, and he is unbeaten on heavy surfaces. Respecting the late market support that 1. Yet He Moves attracted last start at Canterbury, but the gelding performed below expectations after pulling up lame. He can bounce back here and has a solid record at this track. 4. Victory At Omaha can give a sight and add 7. Wild Calm, who is over the odds and can be added to trifectas and first fours.
How to play it: Zerkhan E/W ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 4:20PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Rhythm Of Love brings strong formlines/figures into this event and a solid SP profile. The three-year-old tried hard in defeat two starts ago in the Listed South Pacific Classic (1400m) when running third and then was honest in defeat last start. He gets a much more suitable race shape in this assignment, where he produces his peak performances in high-pressure tempos. The John O'Shea galloper will need some luck from the draw, but Nash Rawiller sticks, and he may get the track pattern to suit. Please note: 13. Franz Joseph goes on top if the stable decide to run here.
Dangers: 7. Naiconi sprinted fast closing splits to score first-up at Sandown, and her win had style. The mare was then flat second-up after a long break, and she can bounce back here with the winkers going on. 11. Super Chilled had multiple excuses first-up last prep, and her run was full of merit. James McDonald rides, and she will be savaging the line. 5. Bunker Hut is rock-hard fit and market watch on import 8. Space Age.
How to play it: Rhythm Of Love WIN ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 1 # 3 – Megastar Heart
Next Best: Race 7 # 8 – Zerkhan
Best Value: Race 4 # 5 - The Great Houdini
