3 minute read
This Saturday's Group 1 All Aged Stakes at Randwick headlines the final day of the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival where $1.5 million goes on the line in the Weight For Age feature over 1400m.
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The Group 1 TJ Smith Stakes is a key lead up race for the All Aged Stakes with half the winners in the past 20 editions having come through it
Chain Of Lightning will look to become the first horse since Trapeze Artist in 2018 to complete the TJ Smith Stakes/All Aged Stakes double.
Espiona, Sunshine In Paris, Magic Time and Buenos Noches are other runners to have had their last start in the TJ Smith Stakes.
It takes a special three-year-old like Giga Kick last year to win the classic and this year Southport Tycoon, Encap and Tiz Invincible will look to join that elite list.
We've taken a close look at every runner in the 2024 field and provided our thoughts. (Prices current at time of publication)
1. Private Eye (10)
Price: $8.50
The Joe Pride-trained son of Al Maher has been disappointing since an impressive effort first-up where he pushed Imperatriz in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes.
He got too far back second-up in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes before running on well to finish 1.55 lengths sixth.
It was a similar scenario last start in The Galaxy when finishing 5.14 lengths behind Zapateo.
He looked super in a recent trial where he hit the line hard to win suggesting that his preparation may be turning around.
In recent times he's been saved for shorter trips, but he does boast a second place finish in the 2022 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap over this distance.
James McDonald is a key booking, but I don't think even the great 'J Mac' can turn this guy around particularly from the tricky barrier.
2. Golden Mile (13)
Price: $31.00
The Blue Army's four-year-old turned his campaign around last start in the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes.
His form in his two previous starts was below par and he started a $51 chance but to his credit, he ran on strongly to finish 1.9 lengths fourth to Veight.
He looked good in a recent trial that would have kept things ticking over nicely.
Don't let the price fool you into thinking he is without a chance, as if he brings his A game then he can give this a shake.
3. Buenos Noches (3)
Price: $27.00
The Matthew Smith-trained son of Supido hasn't risen to the levels this time in work that saw him push Imperatriz in the Group 1 Champions Sprint during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival.
There was a glimmer of it last start in the TJ Smith Stakes where he ran on well to finish 2.2 lengths ninth but it feels like he has to improve beyond what he is currently capable of to be threatening in this race.
4. Bandersnatch (12)
Price: $51.00
It's been over a year since the Team Hawkes-trained seven-year-old gelding won the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude.
He produced a similar run in this year's edition of that race when finishing 2.16 lengths behind Another Wil who up until his subsequent failure in the Group 1 Doncaster Mile, was considered one of the most talented horses in Australia.
The wide draw is not ideal, but he possesses the early speed to find a forward position and races particularly well over the course and distance.
While I don't think he can win the All Aged Stakes, he could run a drum at a huge price.
5. Buffalo River (9)
Price: $41.00
The eight-year-old gelding loves to get out and run but unfortunately was restrained last start in the Group 3 Victoria Handicap which saw him disappointingly finish sixth.
The Michael Moroney-trained son of Noble Mission last tasted success in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes during the spring and since then he has numerous credible performances including third place finishes to Mr Brightside in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes and Futurity Stakes.
Top front running jockey Tim Clark has been booked to take advantage of the fact that Buffalo River is the sole leader in the field.
While he has a speed map advantage, everything would need to go perfectly for him to be winning this race.
6. Airman (11)
Price: $31.00
The Team Hawkes gelding is building an excellent record having won five of 11 career starts.
After finishing third in the Group 3 Maurice McCarten Stakes first-up, he didn't have the best of luck in the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes last start where he was forced to go back after drawing the outside gate and never got on the track.
He'll strip fitter third-up and while he obviously possesses ability, this looks too rich for him at this stage of his career.
7. Amendable (14)
Price: $41.00
The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained son of Lonhro has been highly touted throughout his career but the fact of the matter is that he's won just two from 13 starts.
He was shown up in the George Ryder Stakes which proved he is simply not a Weight For Age horse.
8. Chain Of Lightning (4)
Price: $9.50
The training partnership of Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman are having a great autumn, and this mare is one of the reasons for that.
She proved far too strong in the Group 3 Birthday Card Stakes two starts ago before causing a major upset in the TJ Smith Stakes last start.
The daughter of Fighting Sun was given a beautiful ride by Damian Lane before putting away some of Australia's best sprinters in the straight to win by a neck.
1400m is as long as she wants with just one win in the 2022 Group 2 Tristarc Stakes to show from four starts over the journey.
However, she is a mare in form who is loving life in Sydney, so she looks capable of one last Australian win before heading overseas.
9. Espiona (8)
Price: $4.20
The Chris Waller-trained mare is the current favourite for this year's All Aged Stakes.
She didn't have a lot of luck last start in the TJ Smith Stakes when after drawing wide, she was held up for the majority of the straight yet still was able to finish sixth by just under a length.
The daughter of Extreme Choice powered through the line suggesting the rise to 1400m here will suit.
Her record also supports that, given she has won five of eight starts over the distance including The Invitation which was the last time she competed over this course and distance.
She looks like the testing material with Nash Rawiller doing the steering.
10. Sunshine In Paris (2)
Price: $4.60
The Annabel Neasham-trained four-year-old mare should be ready for a peak performance third-up.
She caught the eye when resuming in the Group 1 The Galaxy where she charged along the inside to miss the win by a nose.
Last start in the TJ Smith Stakes she peaked late on her run to finish just under a length behind Chain Of Lightning in fifth.
She'll appreciate the rise in trip and did win her only previous start over 1400m at Randwick when winning last year's Group 1 Surround Stakes by a whisker.
She maps beautifully for Ryan Maloney who boasts a terrific record with her.
11. Magic Time (6)
Price: $8.50
There has been plenty of merit in the Grahame Begg-trained four-year-old mare's two runs this preparation.
She chased home Cylinder and Imperatriz when resuming in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap before a sneaky good run in the TJ Smith Stakes last start.
The daughter of Hellbent drew barrier 1 which probably wasn't an advantage on the day and loomed large in the straight to only go down by 1.1 lengths.
The rise to 1400m looks ideal third-up given she won the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clark Stakes over this distance during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival and was just a neck behind Espiona in The Invitation.
12. Southport Tycoon (5)
Price: $6.50
The Ciaron Maher-trained colt is the pick of the three-year-olds in this year's All Aged Stakes.
This preparation has seen the son of Written Tycoon stamp himself as a serious horse with a head second in the Group 2 Australia Stakes and a nose second in the Group 2 Autumn Stakes.
However, it was his performance when winning the Group 1 Australian Guineas where he defeated Veight by 1.25 lengths that really had the racing world paying attention.
That win was six weeks ago so the drop in distance won't hurt him being fresh but if you needed any further convincing that he is ready to win then you just have to look at his impressive lead in trials.
13. Encap (7)
Price: $14.00
Gary Portelli's three-year-old gelding has found early market support following his gutsy effort last start in the George Ryder Stakes to finish 2.8 lengths sixth.
The son of Capitalist was held up badly in the Randwick Guineas two starts ago and went to the line largely untested to finish fifth by 1.1 lengths.
The start prior he fought bravely despite a wide run to finish two-lengths behind Celestial Legend in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes.
There is no doubt he has ability, but bad luck seems to be a regular occurrence for him.
14. Tiz Invincible (1)
Price: $31.00
The daughter of I Am Invincible was good against her own age during the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival when winning the Group 2 Furious Stakes and Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes.
Despite not being disgraced, she has been a rung off the top horses in the Group 1 races she has contested this preparation.
The Judgement
I'm happy to side with Espiona in this year's All Aged Stakes.
There was a flashing light on her run in the TJ Smith Stakes last start when drawing wide and being badly held up but still finishing close to the winner.
She's at peak fitness now and will love the rise to 1400m given she has won five of eight starts over the trip including two at this track.
Selections:
1st – Espiona
2nd – Sunshine In Paris
3rd – Southport Tycoon
4th – Magic Time
